Tropical Storm Alvin Spaghetti Models Show Path, Forecast
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Tropical Storm Alvin, the first tropical storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, officially formed on Thursday morning, and weather experts are forecasting a turn toward Mexico.
Why It Matters
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which start on June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) experts have been monitoring the disturbance in the Eastern Pacific since last week. The disturbance became a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon and strengthened further into a tropical storm on Thursday morning.
An NHC forecast shows the anticipated Tropical Storm Alvin path towards Mexico.
An NHC forecast shows the anticipated Tropical Storm Alvin path towards Mexico.
National Hurricane Center
What to Know
As of the most recent update issued by the NHC, Tropical Storm Alvin has maximum sustained wind speeds of 60 mph. A tropical storm officially becomes a Category 1 hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph.
According to NHC's forecast, Tropical Storm Alvin is not expected to become a hurricane.
"Some additional strengthening is expected through early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday," a public advisory for the storm said.
Alvin is forecast to remain a tropical storm through Saturday as it takes a slight turn toward Mexico before weakening into a tropical depression by Sunday. There is a chance the storm could briefly become a hurricane before it weakens, AccuWeather reported.
Alvin's spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential tropical cyclone paths, show the storm taking aim at Mexico's northwestern coast. In some predictions, the storm veers into Baja California.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.
An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, AccuWeather reported.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bob Larson told Newsweek: "We are anticipating at least some strengthening as we go through the night tonight and into tomorrow morning."
NHC in a public advisory: "Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."
NOAA said in its Eastern Pacific hurricane outlook: "Hurricane-related disasters can occur during any season, even for years with low overall activity. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook."
What Happens Next
The next advisory about Tropical Storm Alvin will be issued Thursday night. People in the affected areas are urged to follow local weather guidance when it comes to hazards posed by the storm, such as life-threatening rip currents.
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