MLB Cy Young Odds, Best Bets: Tarik Skubal Heavily Favored In AL

Newsweek

5 days ago

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is currently heavily favored to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young award winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is currently heavily favored to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young award winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
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As the first full, post-All Star break week of the MLB season continues, Newsweek's look at the odds to win the biggest regular-season awards in baseball continues today with a breakdown of the Cy Young races.
Fortunately for bettors interested in these markets, there's plenty of intrigue in both the AL and the NL (particularly in the latter)
There's no need for any further throat-clearing here -- below are where both the AL Cy Young and NL Cy Young races stand, as of July 24.
American League Cy Young Odds
FanDuel ESPN BET Tarik Skubal -330 -240 Garrett Crochet +250 +230 Jacob DeGrom +1600 +1500 Hunter Brown +3000 +1800
With Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.19 ERA over 127.2 IP) listed at shorter than -200 at both ESPN BET and FanDuel, there's little doubt about who would win the 2025 AL Cy Young Award if the season ended today.
Skubal, 28, received all 30 first-place votes for AL Cy Young last year after going 18-4, with a 2.39 ERA.
Somehow, he has been even better this year -- and if he keeps his ERA anywhere near 2.19, it's hard to imagine anyone overtaking him for this award. It should be noted, though, that after Chris Sale (2.38) and Skubal (2.39) were the only players to finish 2024 with an ERA under 2.50, there are currently nine MLB pitchers with an ERA under 2.50.
That list includes Skubal's top AL Cy Young threats: Boston's Garrett Crochet (2.19 ERA) and Texas's Jacob DeGrom (2.28 ERA).
Statistically, picking between Skubal and Crochet is a matter of splitting hairs right now -- with one key exception -- as you can see below.
Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet Statistical Comp. (as of 7/24)
Record (IP) ERA Strikeouts (SO/9) BB BB/9 SO/BB WAR Tarik Skubal 10-3 (127.2) 2.19 164 (11.6) 16 1.1 10.25 4.9 Garrett Crochet 11-4 (135.1) 2.19 165 (11.0) 36 2.4 4.58 4.4
Both Skubal and Crochet have posted remarkable numbers across the board, but Skubal's remarkable ability to avoid walking batters is the difference. While Skubal is en route to his third straight season with a BB/9 of 2.0 or fewer, Crochet -- who gave up 2.0 BB/9 in 2024 -- is allowing 2.4 walks per nine innings.
AL Cy Young Best Bet: Stay Away, Or Take Favorite Tarik Skubal
Assuming both Skubal and Crochet maintain what we've seen from them so far this year, I can't argue with Skubal's status as the favorite here. Unfortunately, that makes all the non-Skubal options in this market easy-to-resist, even at odds that might look tempting on the surface.
National League Cy Young Odds
FD ESPN BET Zack Wheeler -115 -115 Paul Skenes +105 EVEN Christopher Sanchez +1500 +1600 Logan Webb +5000 +3300
In the National League, we're looking at a battle between Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes that could go down to the wire.
Zack Wheeler vs. Paul Skenes Statistical Comp. (as of 7/24)
Let's start the comparison by listing off the key stats for both below.
Record (IP) ERA Strikeouts (SO/9) BB BB/9 SO/BB WAR Zack Wheeler 9-3 (128) 2.39 164 (11.5) 26 1.8 6.31 5.0 Paul Skenes 5-8 (127) 1.91 137 (9.7) 31 2.2 4.42 5.4
If you took a blind look at the numbers above, you might need a second to figure out whether you're more impressed by the overall numbers on the top line or those below it.
Skenes' ERA and WAR are spectacular, but it's hard to argue with Wheeler's almost-as-impressive ERA, not to mention his absurd strikeout numbers.
There are a couple interesting questions to ponder beyond the stats for these two:
Will Wheeler -- who finished a distant second behind Chris Sale in last year's NL Cy Young race (Sale got 26 first-place votes, while Wheeler received four) -- get the benefit of the doubt in another close race?
Will voters go against the player with the better WAR? Last year, Sale (6.2 WAR), Wheeler (6.1 WAR) and Skenes (5.9 WAR) "happened" to finish in the same order in the NL Cy Young vote as they did in the NL WAR rankings.
Now, let's unpack WAR's role in Cy Young voting a bit further. In last year's AL race, Skubal's WAR of 6.4 was one of the many metrics by which he was in a class of his own.
In 2023, Gerrit Cole (7.4 WAR) won the AL Cy Young in a landslide thanks in large part to his big lead atop the WAR leaderboard, while the story for then-Padres ace Blake Snell (6.5 WAR) was the same in the NL.
Let's wrap this up by addressing whether either Wheeler and/or Skenes are likely to rest down the stretch of the regular season.
If you weren't familiar with 35-year-old Wheeler's recent track record, you might assume there was a chance he wouldn't be a safe bet to rack up the innings. But Wheeler has started 32 games in three of the last four seasons, and it's hard to see that changing this year, especially given that the Phillies are in a dogfight in both the NL East and the National League wildcard hunt.
NL Cy Young Best Bet: Zack Wheeler
Best odds as of 7/24: -115 (available at FanDuel, ESPN BET)
Unfortunately for Skenes' case, it's unlikely that Pittsburgh -- which has one of the worst records in baseball and no playoff hopes -- will trot him out for anywhere near 32 starts.
For me, that makes a chalky bet on Wheeler the best NL Cy Young bet as of today. The good news here is that while -115 is not exactly irresistible, it's still well worth a wager at nearly even-money.
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