‘Eddington': Instant Oscar predictions for Ari Aster's latest
But for as big of a splash as Aster has made since Hereditary, his films have yet to earn a single Oscar nomination. Could that change as he continues his shift away from arthouse horror and further into the world of social satire?
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Here's a look at the instant Oscar odds for Eddington.
Original Screenplay
If any branch is geared toward rewarding Aster's massive creative swings, it's the writers, and the early predictions data supports that premise. Eddington's highest ranking category in Gold Derby's Oscar nominations predictions so far is easily Best Original Screenplay (in 13th place), and it makes sense.
Eddington is playing with genre and speaking to the moment in a way that may not correlate with a high Cinemascore, but could engender admiration from Academy members in the writers branch. Aster is managing to make risky and creative films, and those efforts are often the ones awarded in the Screenplay categories.
Oscars Nominations 2026
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay
Contender
Odds
0.
Sinners
91.4%
1.
Sentimental Value
87.7%
2.
Jay Kelly
79.3%
3.
Marty Supreme
64.1%
4.
It Was Just an Accident
59.9%
5.
After the Hunt
39.1%
6.
Rental Family
9.3%
7.
Materialists
5.1%
8.
Black Bag
3.6%
9.
The Secret Agent
3.0%
10.
Ella McCay
2.9%
11.
Eddington
2.5%
12.
A House of Dynamite
2.5%
13.
F1: The Movie
1.7%
14.
The Smashing Machine
1.6%
15.
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
1.5%
16.
Blue Moon
1.0%
17.
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother
1.0%
18.
Anemone
0.9%
19.
The Phoenician Scheme
0.8%
20.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
0.8%
21.
Twinless
0.6%
22.
In Your Dreams
0.4%
23.
The Mastermind
0.3%
24.
Roofman
0.3%
25.
Eleanor the Great
--
See All Predictions
Supporting Actress
This one can be summed up in two words: Emma. Stone. And after two Best Actress Oscars, her mere presence inserts a movie into the awards conversation. The performance is a typically strong one from Stone, in a role that has her playing in the wilder end of modern human behavior.
Stone is currently sitting at 17th in Gold Derby prediction ranking, but that could quickly change as Eddington rolls out, depending on how word of mouth spreads. It's certain to be a polarizing film, but support could coalesce around a presence as well known and liked as Stone's.
Oscars Nominations 2026
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay
Contender
Odds
0.
Elle Fanning
80.9%
1.
Ariana Grande
80.4%
2.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
43.9%
3.
Ayo Edebiri
42.2%
4.
Teyana Taylor
41.9%
5.
Wunmi Mosaku
36.0%
6.
Gwyneth Paltrow
35.3%
7.
Laura Dern
30.5%
8.
Jennifer Lopez
22.0%
9.
Glenn Close
10.3%
10.
Mari Yamamoto
5.0%
11.
Hailee Steinfeld
4.7%
12.
Regina Hall
4.1%
13.
Tilda Swinton
3.8%
14.
Mia Goth
1.9%
15.
Emily Watson
1.8%
16.
Emma Stone
1.7%
17.
Kerry Condon
1.3%
18.
Rebecca Ferguson
1.0%
19.
Jamie Lee Curtis
1.0%
20.
Felicity Jones
1.0%
21.
Karen Gillan
0.9%
22.
Alicia Silverstone
0.8%
23.
Greta Lee
0.7%
24.
Emily Mortimer
0.7%
25.
Margaret Qualley
0.7%
26.
Chase Infiniti
0.6%
27.
Nina Hoss
0.5%
28.
Sissy Spacek
0.5%
29.
Zoey Deutch
0.5%
30.
Chloe Sevigny
0.4%
31.
Phoebe Waller-Bridge
0.4%
32.
Kirsten Dunst
0.3%
33.
Gaby Hoffmann
0.3%
34.
Samantha Morton
0.3%
35.
Regina King
0.2%
36.
Lauren Graham
0.2%
37.
Kate McKinnon
0.2%
38.
Gemma Chan
0.2%
39.
Kerry Washington
0.1%
40.
Ilfenesh Hadera
0.1%
41.
Allison Janney
0.1%
42.
Alana Haim
0.1%
43.
Imogen Poots
0.1%
44.
Radhika Apte
0.1%
45.
Zoe Kravitz
0.1%
46.
Safia Oakley-Green
--
47.
Kerry Condon
--
48.
Vicky Krieps
--
49.
Juno Temple
--
50.
Erin Kellyman
--
51.
Jessica Hecht
--
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Actor
A four-time nominee and one-time winner, Joaquin Phoenix is another actor whose credit will always draw at least some awards curiosity. He has gone without a nom since winning his Best Actor in 2020 for Joker, and at this early stage of the conversation, Eddington doesn't appear to be the most likely film to get him his next.
Phoenix sits at a distant 30th in the Best Actor rankings, mostly based on reads of the trailer and the film's premiere at Cannes, so like Stone, his awards future will depend on Eddington's reception and whether it can capture the conversation.
Oscars Nominations 2026
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay
Contender
Odds
0.
Jeremy Allen White
81.4%
1.
Timothee Chalamet
77.1%
2.
Michael B. Jordan
66.3%
3.
George Clooney
48.8%
4.
Leonardo DiCaprio
48.2%
5.
Jesse Plemons
41.3%
6.
Wagner Moura
21.0%
7.
Colin Farrell
15.0%
8.
Dwayne Johnson
13.9%
9.
Paul Mescal
10.6%
10.
Brendan Fraser
10.1%
11.
Daniel Day-Lewis
5.5%
12.
Oscar Isaac
5.0%
13.
Denzel Washington
4.2%
14.
Tom Hiddleston
2.4%
15.
Josh O'Connor
1.1%
16.
Joel Edgerton
1.1%
17.
Brad Pitt
1.0%
18.
Tonatiuh
0.8%
19.
Chris Evans
0.8%
20.
Ethan Hawke
0.8%
21.
Idris Elba
0.8%
22.
Dylan O'Brien
0.7%
23.
Hugh Jackman
0.7%
24.
Colin Farrell
0.7%
25.
Benicio Del Toro
0.6%
26.
Paul Mescal
0.5%
27.
Rami Malek
0.5%
28.
Austin Butler
0.4%
29.
Channing Tatum
0.4%
30.
Michael Fassbender
0.4%
31.
Joaquin Phoenix
0.4%
32.
Daniel Craig
0.3%
33.
Benedict Cumberbatch
0.3%
34.
Guillaume Marbeck
0.1%
35.
Sky Yang
0.1%
36.
Vahid Mobasseri
0.1%
37.
Andre Holland
--
See All Predictions
Supporting Actor
Who doesn't love Pedro Pascal? We actually have an answer to that: Nobody. The man is a certified star on the big and small screen and a four-time Emmy nominee. Some awards body somewhere is going to give this man a major trophy.
Though, it doesn't seem like it will be for Eddington. Gold Derby users predicting Best Supporting Actor have Pascal in Eddington 27th place — notably ten spots behind Pascal in The Materialist.
Oscars Nominations 2026
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay
Contender
Odds
0.
Stellan Skarsgard
84.8%
1.
Jeremy Strong
69.9%
2.
Adam Sandler
66.2%
3.
Delroy Lindo
59.9%
4.
Sean Penn
50.8%
5.
Andrew Garfield
45.5%
6.
Miles Caton
14.3%
7.
Mark Hamill
14.1%
8.
Stephen Graham
8.4%
9.
Jonathan Bailey
8.3%
10.
Diego Luna
5.8%
11.
Akira Emoto
4.7%
12.
Jack O'Connell
4.4%
13.
Jacob Elordi
3.9%
14.
Andrew Scott
2.7%
15.
Robert Pattinson
2.4%
16.
Pedro Pascal
2.0%
17.
Takehiro Hira
1.7%
18.
Benicio Del Toro
1.7%
19.
Josh O'Connor
1.2%
20.
Damson Idris
1.1%
21.
Christoph Waltz
1.0%
22.
Michael Shannon
0.8%
23.
Josh O'Connor
0.8%
24.
Russell Crowe
0.6%
25.
Pedro Pascal
0.6%
26.
William H. Macy
0.6%
27.
Stavros Halkias
0.6%
28.
Javier Bardem
0.5%
29.
Billy Crudup
0.5%
30.
Benjamin Pajak
0.4%
31.
ASAP Rocky
0.4%
32.
Michael Stuhlbarg
0.3%
33.
Adam Driver
0.3%
34.
Peter Dinklage
0.2%
35.
Woody Harrelson
0.2%
36.
Matt Smith
0.2%
37.
Andrew Scott
0.2%
38.
Austin Butler
0.2%
39.
Andy Samberg
0.2%
40.
Gabriel Basso
0.2%
41.
Tracy Letts
0.2%
42.
Tom Bateman
0.1%
43.
Chiwetel Ejiofor
0.1%
44.
Sean Bean
0.1%
45.
Kevin Kline
0.1%
46.
James Sweeney
0.1%
47.
Ebrahim Azizi
0.1%
48.
Richard E. Grant
0.1%
49.
Chiwetel Ejiofor
--
50.
LaKeith Stanfield
--
51.
Samuel Bottomley
--
52.
Aubry Dullin
--
53.
Liev Schreiber
--
54.
Josh Brolin
--
55.
Nick Nolte
--
56.
LaKeith Stanfield
--
See All Predictions
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One man frees his heart (of darkness) Like in Aster's previous film, Beau Is Afraid, Joaquin Phoenix takes center stage in a deep character study best encapsulated when Joe asks, 'How did we get here, and even worse, is it worth it?' Joe starts off as a good-hearted man who is understandably sick of the pressures that come with living through a pandemic that has brought out the worst in his community. Though he seemed a little self-centered at times, he stood up to aggressive public shaming directed toward those who don't follow mask mandates due to breathing problems. Joe's heart may start off in the right place as he tries to bring positive change to his community as mayor. However, he grows more impulsive and selfish in pursuit of political power, exploiting his wife's past trauma without her consent to attack his opponent online. As Joe's actions isolate him from his family, he succumbs to his anger and ambition and starts killing his 'enemies' in some shocking moments. He even tries to pin his crimes on a social justice advocate and a Black police officer, showcasing police corruption and how politicians use social discord for personal gain. Phoenix really sells his performance as Joe, realistically portraying an earnest man who slowly nears his breaking point and quickly loses himself when things get out of hand. Likewise, Emma Stone presents herself as a sensitive person whose repressed anger boils to the surface. Her character's transformation into a zealous conspiracy theorist does seem rushed, especially when her paranoid mother (Deidre O'Connell) suddenly acts more sensible. On the other hand, Austin Butler stands out in his brief role as cult leader Vernon Jefferson Peak, projecting an odd yet hypnotic aura that draws audiences toward him. A stunning and immersive Western in present-day America Eddington presents itself as a modern Western, and the film joins the ranks of classic Westerns with a variety of majestic visuals from cinematographer Darius Khondji. With gorgeous wide shots of vast desert landscapes, Eddington appears to be a town that's cut off from the rest of the world, adding to the sense of isolation felt in this pandemic-era community. The film immerses its audience even more with several long takes that incorporate a variety of camera shots, with sounds like Katy Perry's 'Roar' and Joe's asthmatic breathing adding tension that pulls the audience in even more. Lucian Johnston stitches all the film's vibrant and unsettling images together with spectacular editing, leading to some very clever transitions that have become a mainstay of Aster's movie. 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