Bubble teams could shape MLB trade deadline. History tells us which will buy or sell
I will buy you a new Kwan, perfect, shiny and new.
I will buy you that Bednar, to reduce relief thrills
I will buy you a new life
Yes I will
Of all the ways to describe the trade deadline, no, we'd never call it 'everclear.'
Just about every year, executives will tell you for weeks that the trade deadline looks muddled — that everyone is waiting to decide their ultimate direction, that maybe there just won't be that many good players available, that the deadline could be a dud.
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And just about every year, big names ultimately get moved, and someone who switched teams at the end of July is playing a critical role at the end of October.
An absence of powerhouse teams has left this trade deadline feeling as uncertain as ever a week out. To get a better sense of what teams on the dreaded bubble might decide over the next week, I've compared them by record, run differential, proximity to the playoffs and playoff odds a week ahead of the deadline to every team dating back to the 2014 season. What did those other teams end up doing at the deadline, and what can we learn about this year's deadline from that history?
I grouped the teams into eight different tiers.
The records and run differentials are updated through Thursday's action; the playoff odds (via FanGraphs) through Wednesday. The prognoses here are not recommendations; I would always buy. These are what other teams in similar spots have tended to do.
Run differential: +14
Standing: 2nd in division, behind by five games, hold final wild card
Playoff odds: 42.9 percent
The only team comparable to the Padres that has sold in the last decade is the 2016 Astros, which good for them, they got Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields. San Diego's specific context — a roster with a few appealing impending free agents and a desire to avoid adding money — could lead one of the game's most aggressive executives in A.J. Preller to get creative. It wouldn't be stunning if the Padres acted as Tailors, trading off their major-league roster to mend a hole elsewhere.
Run differential: +19
Standing: 2nd in division, behind by five games, hold second wild card
Playoff odds: 79.1 percent
Well the Mariners are far off where they want to be, having won only 53 percent of their first 100 games. (I'm sorry; it was too easy.) The last time Seattle had playoff odds like this a week ahead of the deadline, it traded big-name prospects for Luis Castillo. It has the farm system to do something similar this year, and it started that process by acquiring Arizona's Josh Naylor Thursday night.
Record: 55-49
Run differential: +54
Standing: 3rd in division, behind by 6 1/2 games, hold final wild card
Playoff odds: 43 percent
History says: BUY
The Red Sox were in a similar spot two years ago — 54-47, +47, 32.7 percent playoff odds, when they traded away Kiké Hernández and brought in Luis Urías — which is like threading the needle for a pair of Kirkland signature chinos.
Boston has a different front office now, one that's shown itself to be aggressive in adding and subtracting from the major-league roster. A 10-game winning streak going into the All-Star break has put the Sox squarely in Buy territory.
Record: 54-49
Run differential: +19
Standing: 3rd in division, behind by six games, one game out of wild card
Playoff odds: 39.4 percent
History says: BUY
We're at the point in playoff odds where the Buyers tun into Fringe Buyers and approaching where they move into Sellers. San Francisco's specific context, though, having already acquired Rafael Devers last month and lacking any real appealing trade pieces on the major-league roster, makes the decision to Buy easier for Buster Posey.
Record: 53-50
Run differential: +61
Standing: 3rd in division, behind by seven games, 1 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 32.5 percent
History says: ALL-IN BUY
All-in Buyers come from two groups: teams whose playoff spot is essentially assured who want to solidify their October roster (the 2016 Cubs come to mind) and teams who are in fringe contention and need a boost to reach October (the 2022 Phillies played that well). This year's Rangers fall into the latter group, and to be honest, they've just reached it by winning eight of 10 through Wednesday. Chris Young has always tended toward being aggressive, and Texas' run differential is reason for optimism in a landscape without a dominant team.
Record: 53-50
Run differential: +64
Standing: 4th in division, behind by eight games, 1 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 27.5 percent
History says: BUY
Not every team in fringe contention becomes an All-in Buyer, however, and the ones that do usually don't mind spending money. So that course fits Texas better than it does Tampa Bay.
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The Rays' record, run differential, playoff odds and organizational track record all suggest threading the needle here. But Tampa Bay's within two games of the postseason entering Friday, and teams that close to the postseason buy. The aforementioned 2016 Astros (Sellers) and 2023 Red Sox (Tailors) are the only non-2020 exceptions.
Record: 53-50
Run differential: +35
Standing: 3rd in division, behind by 8 1/2 games, two games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 11.6 percent
History says: BUY
Our third 53-50 team has substantially worse playoff odds, likely a reflection of FanGraphs' projections not liking the Reds' roster coming into the season all that much. Those odds say to Sell, to move on from impending free agents like Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán and Austin Hays. But here's the thing: Teams with playoff odds this low that buy anyway tend to do really well. That's where you'll find the 2021 wild-card Cardinals (3.2 percent), 2015 AL West champion Rangers (4.1 percent), and famously the 2021 champion Braves (7.0 percent). And the Reds are closer to the playoffs right now than any of them were at the time.
Record: 53-51
Run differential: minus-2
Standing: 4th in division, behind by nine games, 2 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 20.2 percent
History says: SELL
The best-case scenario here is a 2015 Mets team that bought big at the deadline despite similar playoff odds and rode the wave to the National League pennant. Unfortunately for St. Louis, that New York squad had a few reasons to defy the odds: It was built on young pitching that the projection systems hadn't valued properly, it had more youth on the way, and it hadn't come close to the postseason in seven years. Every once in a while, organizational desperation pays off.
While this has been an unusually long rough patch for St. Louis, it's not in the same position as that Mets team. No, the Cardinals look much more like the 2018 Giants (who ended up regretting their Stand Pat deadline that summer) or the 2019 Giants (who dealt away Mark Melancon, Derek Holland, Drew Pomeranz and Sam Dyson). The Cardinals planned to take a step back competitively last offseason, and they're playing roughly in line with expectations. They have at least one major trade asset in closer Ryan Helsley in his walk year. It's time to cash that in.
Record: 51-51
Run differential: minus–35
Standing: 2nd in division, behind by eight games, three games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 15.9 percent
History says: SELL
Only the 2021 Cardinals have bought with a run differential this far into negative territory. In fact, Cleveland's playoff odds are right in line with where they were for the 2015 squad — a team that decided to trade away Brandon Moss, David Murphy and Marc Rzepczynski. (It didn't work out as hoped, but the Moss trade brought back a recent first-round pick in Rob Kaminsky.) This Cleveland team would get more than that if it moved any of Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith or Steven Kwan — all of whom are under extended team control. It would get less than that if it limits its selling to impending free agents Lane Thomas and Carlos Santana.
Record: 50-53
Run differential: +14
Standing: 4th in division, behind by 10 games, five games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 8.9 percent
History says: SELL
The most interesting deadline dilemma has been solved: The Diamondbacks are selling.
Ken Rosenthal reported it early Thursday, and Mike Hazen confirmed it Thursday night when he traded Josh Naylor to Seattle. Arizona could have fathomed itself another coming of 2021 Atlanta, but other teams that bought in even somewhat better circumstances still didn't make the playoffs. Ironically, the team the DBacks most resemble is last year's Tigers, who were under .500 with a run differential just sneaking into positive territory and a six-game gap separating them from the postseason. Detroit, of course, traded away Jack Flaherty and then made the playoffs (and advanced) anyway.
Record: 50-53
Run differential: minus-22
Standing: 3rd in division, behind by 9 1/2 games, 4 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 10.2 percent
History says: THREAD THE NEEDLE
What makes a good Tailor? A team with a discernible strength, an obvious weakness, and a small enough gap between it and the postseason to talk itself into trying. These Royals fit the bill. They entered Thursday with the third-best rotation ERA in baseball despite a down season from Cole Ragans. And they score the second-fewest runs per game in the sport. So here's an opportunity to move perhaps the best starting pitcher on the market in Seth Lugo while also bringing in a controllable fit for the lineup, preferably in the outfield.
Record: 49-53
Run differential: minus-9
Standing: 4th in division, behind by 10 games, 4 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 14.9 percent
History says: SELL
Teams that are just a few games under .500 can talk themselves into buying. Teams whose run differentials are just a shade in negative territory can talk themselves into buying. Teams that are under .500 with a negative run differential very rarely talk themselves into buying. The 2015 Rangers and 2017 Mariners are about the only examples.
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Minnesota could sell on multiple levels. It could move an impending free agent like Danny Coulombe and be a Light Seller. It could move Coulombe and Willi Castro and be a Seller. It could move Coulombe and Castro and one of its very good pitchers signed through 2027 like Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax and be closer to a Rebuilding Seller.
Record: 49-54
Run differential: minus–67
Standing: 4th in division, behind by 11 games, 5 1/2 games out of wild card
Playoff odds: 1.9 percent
History says: SELL
There's an exception to every rule, and if the Angels are looking for the exception, they can focus on the 2021 Cardinals. St. Louis that season had playoff odds of 3.2 percent a week before the deadline, with a .500 record and run differential of -37. It added some veteran starters, won 17 in a row and made it to the last at-bat of the Wild Card Game.
But no team with odds below three percent at this point of the season has ever been more than a Fringe Buyer. And outside of 2020, no team has been as low as 11th in its league at this point of the season and rallied to make the postseason.
(Photo of Julio Rodríguez: Eric Thayer / Getty Images)
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