Giants Mailbagg: What happened to San Francisco's offense?

New York Times

a day ago

Welcome to the first regular-season installment of the Giants Mailbagg.
Who could have imagined that June would be so newsy and noteworthy after such a stable and unremarkable start to the season? Gosh, it's almost like April and May didn't even happen. Judging from the questions, many of you are as confused as I am about the direction of this team. There are plenty of reasons to believe that we haven't seen the best of the Giants this season. There are plenty of reasons to believe that we haven't seen the worst of them, either.
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Seems like we can agree on one thing: this team needs to score more runs.
Thanks as always for submitting your questions. (Answers slightly edited for length and clarity.)
Let's dive in:
The current Giants offensive struggles seem to be a continuation of a lack of hitting and run production that stretches back for years across players, managers and GMs. Is there something about Oracle Park or playing in cold, foggy San Francisco that prevents the team from having more success hitting home runs or just scoring more runs? — Salty S.
Most definitely. Air density, temperature and altitude are the primary variables that impact ball flight. The Giants play at sea level, and while they aren't forced to slog through frosty home conditions in April like some other teams, their waterfront ballpark at 24 Willie Mays Plaza annually ranks first in coldest average annual temperature at first pitch (64.3 degrees). Only the Seattle Mariners have a comparable Temperature Park Factor, which compares average temperatures in home vs. road games. That means the Giants not only hit in a challenging home environment, but the difference in ball flight on the road might tempt them to tinker with their approach depending on whether they are home or away.
Then there's the reputation effect. Even if the park plays a little more neutral than hitters might think, it's not super fun to play a night game in late June and see fans wearing puffer jackets in the stands. You already know this: It's hard to build a consistently productive offensive team when it's a struggle to sign difference-making free-agent hitters. That's why the Giants just traded for one and didn't blink on taking more than $250 million, even though Rafael Devers is basically a DH already and there are eight more years on that contract.
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The weather shouldn't give the Giants a blanket pass. (But maybe hang on to the blanket.) The visiting team in San Francisco competes under the same conditions. And Giants pitchers certainly benefit from it. You'd much rather have the Giants' conundrum than, say, the Rockies, who still haven't figured out how to solve their home/road altitude discrepancy. It boils down to this: The Giants have to figure out a way to develop more good hitters. The last time they graduated a crop of excellent position players (Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford), they won three World Series titles. High on Posey's priority list is getting that pipeline flowing again, starting with Bryce Eldridge.
Welcome back, Baggs! Let me see if I can zag all these valid questions about offense and instead ask what's up with the closer role? Ryan Walker, Camilo Doval, and Randy Rodríguez have all had brilliant moments in the bullpen, but it seems like when pressure is on in the bottom of the ninth, they've been caving. — Lucas B.
The Giants have blown 12 saves, and that is precisely league average. But they've had the third-most save situations (92) among major-league clubs. Given that Bob Melvin has required so much high-leverage work from his relievers, I'm not sure I'd agree that the overall performance in the ninth inning has been concerning. You're right, they've made one closer switch already, and entering the weekend, Doval had a 5.84 ERA in 12 appearances since stepping into Walker's place. But Doval is also 8 for 9 in save situations, and it's clear that he has worked hard to improve several elements of his game. For the most part, he's holding runners better, and the pitch clock hasn't been nearly as big an issue. Not to be cheeky and suggest that you should have submitted a question about the offense, but when you ask about pressure on the back-end relievers, maybe the best way the Giants should address that is by scoring more runs and relieving some of that pressure.
How much longer do we have to live with Matt Williams as the third-base coach? Seems like he's incapable of knowing when to send them and when to put on the brakes. — Jeff T.
When teams go through a funk, it seems like it impacts everyone. Results-wise, Williams had a bad homestand. If he'd gone to the casino instead, he'd be exiting shirtless. First, he holds Jung Hoo Lee vs. Cleveland, and the comments board is on his case. Then, he sends Devers and Lee into outs at the plate against Miami, and the grumbles get louder. He's been around long enough to know how this works. You make the best decision in the moment that you can. That's what he did.
You have every right to disagree with me on this, but I didn't have a problem with either send against the Marlins. Williams waved Devers home with two outs when the Giants were trying to tie the score in the fifth. That's when you're supposed to be aggressive. The optics weren't great when Devers was thrown out by plenty. But the Giants also didn't get another hit in the game. A night later, there was just one out in the ninth when he sent Lee on Patrick Bailey's single that was fielded in shallow left field, but a) Lee is a lot faster than Devers, b) the Giants already had scored the tying run and c) you have to force a young team like the Marlins to make a game-saving play. And guess what, they did. Good for them.
A few weeks ago, the Atlanta Braves made the rare decision to replace their third-base coach in the middle of a season. That's not going to happen here based on the last homestand. Melvin trusts few people in the game as much as Williams, and Melvin agreed with both sends against Miami. Coaching third base is a thankless job, and it's a heck of a lot easier when your main responsibility is to touch hands when guys are in their home run trots. Maybe the Giants will turn it around and give Williams a few of those games on this road trip.
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Posey has shown he will make the big trade, and no one on the roster is sacrosanct. What about the coaching staff? Williams, in particular, has made two straight bad calls to send runners. Pat Burrell's hitting advice doesn't seem to be moving the needle. And of course, Melvin and his decision-making. Do the Giants fire a coach mid-season to 'Wake Up' the team? — David M.
This front office doesn't strike me as the type to rely on theatrics. Posey's way of waking up the team was to improve the roster and demonstrate belief.
Do you think Willy Adames and Jung Hoo Lee will be drags on this team for a long time with no way to correct their place on the roster? Someone has to address the reality of the Giants' future. — David B.
If the Giants viewed both contracts as hopelessly underwater in 2025, then I doubt they would have traded for eight years of Devers. To your point, Adames is off to a disappointing start, and I think we all assumed when he signed his seven-year deal that he wouldn't be a shortstop for the majority of his contract. It's a little tougher to predict what will happen with Lee because he's younger than most people realize (26), and he brings a lot of defensive value in center field. You're right, the Giants have much less financial flexibility than they did at this time last year. That's the tradeoff when you seek more roster continuity from your position player group. The Giants will have to draft and develop well so they won't have as many needs to fill with expensive free agents in the next 5-6 years.
When Devers is given the go-ahead to play first base, what do you believe will be the strategy when he plays in the field and when he is the DH? — Brad A.
Melvin indicated that Devers could play first base at some point on this road trip. Until we see him play a few games, it's tough to predict what their strategy will be. They'll read and react like they always do. I'd imagine that Devers will continue to get regular starts at DH, though. Against some right-handed pitching, I'd imagine the Giants will want to have Dom Smith at first base, where he is an excellent defender. Against lefties, Devers and Wilmer Flores could alternate at 1B/DH to keep both players a little fresher.
What's wrong with Lee? It feels like Groundhog Day when he grounds out to second base. Is it his approach, his contact quality, etc.? I thought he was revving up for a special season in April and early May. — Marlon A.
Grant Brisbee just wrote about Lee. As he pointed out, the BABIP has been unsustainably low in recent weeks, and those things tend to even out. Observationally, the contact quality hasn't been impressive. Too many fly balls and grounders to second base. You probably have a better sense than I do about what's happened between his doubles-happy hitting run in April and his current struggles. I wasn't able to watch the games while I was on leave, so I can't make a comparison. But I've seen him do tons of early work every day. It might just be one of those dry spells you have to ride out.
Where to use Hayden Birdsong? He seems lethal for two innings, then loses command, confidence. Would the Giants be best served putting him back in the bullpen and finding another starter? — John D.
Birdsong looked distracted on Thursday against the Marlins after he handled his 'assignment' in the first inning and then got stunned by a three-run homer. He acknowledged there are times when his confidence wavers on the mound. If he struggles another time or two, I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants rearrange things and try to get him right in a bullpen role. Among Birdsong's most special attributes is his ability to hold his velocity to the end of a 100-pitch start. Those are the kinds of pitchers who get every chance to remain in a rotation. Plus, it's easy to forget he had so little upper-minors experience. The major leagues are a place to develop, too. Some lessons are more painful than others. After trading Kyle Harrison, the Giants don't have as wide a safety net for their other starters. They do have alternatives, though, including Carson Seymour, who will get his first taste of big-league action as a long reliever but is viewed as a starter long term.
Per Baseball Reference, the MLB average is 4.3 runs scored and allowed per game. The Giants score 4.2 and allow 3.7. Their 0.5 run surplus per game is one of MLB's better marks. What would you say is first order of business for Giants, working more on their strength, suppressing runs or addressing their weakness, and trying to score more? Which is easier to do? — Mike S.
Well, the correct answer is both. But if there's a priority, it's to score more runs. That would serve the dual purpose of helping them win more games and perhaps take some of the pressure off the pitching staff, which can only help their run suppression as well.
1.) Each time the Giants seem poised to surge, they stumble (successive home losses to Miami); each time they seem poised to sink from contention, they go on a mini streak. Halfway through the season, is this just who they are? Is it realistic to expect things to level out?
2.) Can you share a favorite highlight from the 'sabbatical'? — Barry S.
It's a bit stunning that they were tied for first place in the National League West when they entered Dodger Stadium on June 13, and not two weeks later, they were 6 1/2 out following the home brooming by the Marlins. To bank the 90 or so wins that would get them to the postseason, it'll be important that they pile up series victories against lesser opponents. They did the opposite against Miami. There's still half a season to play, of course. But, as Posey said, it's time to go. Playoff teams do not post a losing record on a road trip vs. the White Sox, Diamondbacks and A's.
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It's difficult to pick one highlight from my time in South America, but visiting Rapa Nui probably stands out. When I was a little guy, I had one of those World Book for Kids almanacs and loved reading about all the wonders of the modern and ancient world. I've been fortunate enough to visit several of them. But Rapa Nui is so remote. Seeing the Moai statues was something I assumed I would never get to do. The entire time I was there, it just didn't seem real. It was a lifelong memory, for sure. (And some of the best pictures I've ever taken.)
(Top photo of Adames striking out during the Giants' 1-0 loss to the White Sox on Saturday: Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images)