Israel's Syria policy could fuel more conflict and disorder

Japan Times

2 days ago

After months of sectarian violence, kidnappings and cross-border clashes, the last thing Syria's fledgling government needs is a neighbor stoking tensions.
But that is what Israel is doing, as it erects military bases in the countries' demilitarized 'buffer zone,' strikes military sites and kills security officials — all part of a well-worn strategy of backing minority groups against Sunni majorities in the Arab world. But by pursuing it in Syria, Israel is risking strategic blowback.
Along with neighboring Lebanon, Syria has the most diverse population in the Middle East. While Sunni Arabs comprise 65% of the population, their majority is far smaller than in, say, Egypt (around 90%). The remaining 35% of Syria's population includes members of heretical Islamic offshoots, along with Sunni Kurds and Christians.
Managing this diversity has proved challenging for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which came to power after Syrian President Bashar Assad's ouster in December. Its cadres are drawn from al-Qaida, which believes that Sunni Arabs should hold all the rights — and all the power — in the Islamic world. And while the HTS leadership has tempered its religious zeal, some of its foot soldiers have not.
In March, clashes between HTS and Assad's Alawi sect, a heretical Shia offshoot accounting for around 12% of Syria's population, left more than 1,000 dead. The violence rattled Christians, who largely supported the toppled government. Meanwhile, groups loyal to Turkey have skirmished with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast.
But it is tensions with the Druze, another heterodox group, that are proving most vexing for Syria's young government. After a spurious audio recording attributed to a Druze leader blaspheming the Prophet Muhammad circulated on social media, masked gunmen descended on the Damascus suburb of Jaramana. After the melee drew in HTS security officials, Israel declared that it would protect the tiny sect. It has since targeted members of Syria's security forces who clashed with the Druze and mounted airstrikes near the presidential palace.
Israel's machinations in Syria are nothing new. Within months of Israel's birth, senior Foreign Ministry officials mused about sponsoring a coup there, in order to strengthen their position in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
More broadly, Israel has often used support of minorities to undermine Sunni power. In Lebanon, it was the Christians. In 1955, Army Chief of Staff Moshe Dayan floated the idea of convincing a Christian military officer to 'declare himself the savior of the Maronite (Christian) population,' before invading Lebanon to help install a Christian regime that would ally itself with Israel.
In the 1970s, Prime Minister Menachem Begin — claiming that Israel had a 'duty' to prevent the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from committing 'genocide' against Christians — supported a renegade Lebanese Christian sergeant-major, in the hopes of creating a buffer zone along Lebanon's southern border, where it could exert some control. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, expelled the PLO and installed a Christian president, Bashir Gemayel, soon assassinated by a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.
Israel's efforts to undermine Sunni regimes have also entailed partnerships with Shia countries. Beginning in the 1960s, Israel worked with the Shah of Iran to support the besieged Iraqi Kurds in their fight against the central government. The resulting insurgency was so devastating that then-Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein ceded the Shatt al-Arab waterway to Iran, in exchange for its pledge to stop supporting the Kurds.
In light of this history, it is not surprising that Israeli leaders now seek to carve out a Druze enclave on the Syrian border, thereby creating a buffer between Israel and the Sunnis. Nor is it surprising that Israel has identified ambitious Druze figures eager to challenge both the central government and their own sect's traditional leadership.
This effort has broad support among Israeli politicians, from the prime minister to the opposition leader. In their view, a fractured Syria desperately attempting to put out regional and sectarian fires would lack the resources and capacity to threaten Israel.
But this vision is short-sighted. After all, upheaval and division could bring down the HTS government — and Israel might not like what replaces it. The Turks who back the group and support factions on the northern Syrian border may be persuaded to deploy troops deep inside the country.
A resurgent Islamic State in Iraq and Syria could exploit the chaos of HTS's downfall to expand its influence, just as it did when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011. After Gemayel's assassination in 1982, Hezbollah stepped into the breach in southern Lebanon. By 2000, Hezbollah had driven Israel from Lebanese territory and in 2006 launched a devastating war that ended in a stalemate.
Following the Assad dynasty's collapse, Israel has attained near-supremacy in the Middle East. Destabilizing a nascent government that has no desire to tangle with a stronger neighbor will do nothing to strengthen this position. On the contrary, a policy based on reflexive hubris risks paving the way for the emergence of a formidable new threat.
Barak Barfi is a former research fellow at New America and a former visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. © Project Syndicate, 2025.