
Asian stocks slide on weak China data, yen firms after BOJ decision
The revised forecast suggested cautious optimism that Japan's trade deal with the U.S. would help the economy avert a steep downturn and set the BOJ on a path to hike interest rates later in the year.
The yen firmed 0.6% to 148.62 per U.S. dollar immediately after the central bank maintained short-term interest rates at 0.5%, as expected, by a unanimous vote.
Japanese shares (.N225), opens new tab showed little reaction to the decision and were last up 0.9%.
In an action-packed 24 hours, investors were also digesting a trade deal between the U.S. and South Korea, a Federal Reserve decision to hold rates steady and strong earnings from megacap tech firms.
Nasdaq futures surged 1.2% after better-than-expected earnings from Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.8%, while the U.S. dollar held steady after hitting a two-month high.
Both tech companies' earnings reports "have shot the lights out", reporting higher revenue from cloud computing and artificial intelligence-enabled ad targeting respectively, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab eased 0.7%, though it was still on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain in July.
Stocks in Hong Kong and China led declines after official PMI gauges showed weaker-than-expected economic activity during July.
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 9-2 on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, with two Fed governors dissenting for the first time in more than three decades.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision undercut confidence that borrowing costs would begin to fall in September.
The dollar index was at 98.812, just shy of the two-month high of 99.987 it touched on Wednesday. The index is set to clock a 3.1% gain for the month, its first in 2025.
"Although the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates steady at its recent rate setting decision, the chance of rate cuts at upcoming meetings remain live as they balance softening economic data with the potential for persistent inflation," said Manusha Samaraweera, fixed income investment director at Capital Group.
U.S. gross domestic product growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but the details of the report painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam and plagued by uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies.
The Korean won appreciated 0.3% after Trump said the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, which will in return invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and purchase $100 billion in U.S. energy products.
The announcement is the latest in a series of trade policy deals rushed out before an August 1 deadline to avert the imposition of the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs.
Trump's tariff blitz cast a shadow on global markets, with negotiations on trade with India still under way after Trump earlier announced that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country.
Meanwhile, copper futures plunged 19% after Trump said the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring, as the details of the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday, with Brent crude futures for September delivery , which are set to expire on Thursday, down 0.19% at $73.1 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September was flat at $70.01 a barrel.
The more active Brent October contract eased 0.14% to $72.37 per barrel.
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Reuters
7 minutes ago
- Reuters
Dollar steady before US inflation report, US-China tariff deadline
LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was little changed on Monday before Tuesday's deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal and a key U.S. inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month. The dollar index was down less than 0.1% to 98.164 after last week's 0.4% fall. Against the yen, the U.S. currency traded at 147.39 , down 0.2%. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the Mountain Day holiday. The euro was up less than 0.1% at $1.1652, while sterling was flat at $1.3462. The dollar remains on the back foot as investors recently adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Fed after soft U.S. jobs and manufacturing figures. Fed officials have sounded increasingly uneasy about the labour market, signalling their openness to a rate cut as soon as September. Cooling inflation could cement bets for a cut next month but if signs emerge that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are fuelling price rises it might keep the Fed on hold for now. "It's important to note ahead of tomorrow's data that the bar for a hawkish surprise is higher," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. Pesole added that a 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI would give the Fed room to lower interest rates, given the deterioration in the labour market. Economists polled by Reuters expect core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate higher to 3%. Money market traders are pricing in around a 90% chance of a rate cut next month, while 58 basis points of easing are priced in by year-end, implying two quarter-point cuts and around a one-in-three chance of a third. Personnel moves at the Fed have also weighed on the dollar recently as Trump prepares to install rate-setters that support his dovish views on monetary policy, including a new chair for when Jerome Powell's term ends in May. Trade talks were also in focus as Trump's August 12 deadline for a deal between the U.S. and China neared, particularly on chip policy. "The market has fully priced in the idea that we're going to get an extension," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne, adding that another 90-day truce was most likely. With the U.S. and China seeking to close a deal averting triple-digit goods tariffs, a U.S. official told Reuters that chip makers Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and AMD (AMD.O), opens new tab had agreed to allocate 15% of China sales revenues to the U.S. government, aiming to secure export licences for semiconductors. "I don't know if that's going to be a good thing or a bad thing, but if it puts closure on the matter, it's not a bad outcome," Weston said. "If this is Trump saying 15% and we'll call it a day, that may not be too bad." The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses, trading at 7.1854 to the dollar, after weekend data showed China's producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were unchanged. The Australian dollar fetched $0.6520 , trading flat ahead of a rate decision by the central bank on Tuesday, in which it is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, after second-quarter inflation came in weaker than expected and the jobless rate hit a 3-1/2-year high. Cryptocurrencies jumped, with bitcoin rising as high as $122,308, not far from its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after Trump's executive order on Thursday freed up cryptocurrency holdings in U.S. retirement accounts. Ether rose as high as $4,346, its highest since December 2021.


Reuters
17 minutes ago
- Reuters
Shares edge higher, geopolitics and inflation data the week's focus
SYDNEY/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Major share indexes around the world crept higher on Monday continuing to grind back towards their late July peaks, with the focus of the week on a crucial report on U.S. inflation that will likely set the course of the dollar and bonds. Europe's STOXX 600 share index rose 0.3%, (.STOXX), opens new tab with Asia-Pacific stocks (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab up 0.2% and S&P 500 futures also 0.2% higher. MSCI's world share index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab is now just 0.2% from its all-time high hit in late July as a strong earnings season in the United States, and a mildly positive one in Europe, support overall sentiment, helping investors to shrug off the impact of soft U.S. July jobs data. Trade and geopolitics loom large this week. A U.S. tariff deadline on China, due to expire on Tuesday, is expected to be extended again, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the Ukraine war. The main economic release will be U.S. consumer prices on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the impact of tariffs to help nudge the core up 0.3% to an annual pace of 3.0% and away from the Federal Reserve target of 2%. An upside surprise would challenge market wagers for a September rate cut, though analysts assume it would have to be a very high number given that a downward turn in payrolls is now dominating the outlook. It also comes at a complicated time for the Fed, with Trump having repeatedly criticised policymakers for not cutting rates at recent meetings, and with the focus on who will succeed current chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. This, said Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, means that the dollar's reaction to the CPI data will not be straightforward. If the figure indicates higher U.S. tariff price pressures, "that could support the stagflation narrative, and to the dollar's detriment", he said, adding this would also go against the view of some policymakers that tariffs are not causing prices to increase. "If, however, softer U.S. CPI readings materialise, including the core goods figures, this would likely challenge the dollar too by supporting the case for further Fed easing, and perhaps see greater criticism from the U.S. administration towards Fed Chair Powell." Markets imply around a 90% probability of a September easing, and at least one more cut by year-end. That has helped support Treasuries, and the U.S. benchmark 10-year yield was last 4.25%, hovering near last week's low of 4.187%. The prospect of lower borrowing costs has supported equities, along with a run of strong earnings, particularly from tech names. Analysts were unsure what to make of reports, including by Reuters, that Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and AMD (AMD.O), opens new tab have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of their revenues from chip sales in China, under an arrangement to obtain export licences for the semiconductors. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab added 0.5% after data showed consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but producer prices kept falling as the country's massive manufacturing sector exported deflation to the rest of the world. Figures on Chinese industrial output and retail sales for July are due on Friday, and forecasts are for a slight slowdown after a jump in the previous month. Currencies were quiet, with early trading thinned by a holiday in Japan. The euro was marginally higher at $1.1651 and further away from a recent trough of $1.1392, while the dollar dipped to 147.38 yen. The Australian dollar eased to $0.6520 ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to back a rate cut. It stunned markets in July by skipping an easing of policy to await more inflation data. In commodity markets, gold fell 1.1% to $3,360 an ounce after wild swings last week on reports that the U.S. would slap 39% tariffs on some gold bars, which are major exports of Switzerland. The White House said on Sunday it planned to issue an executive order clarifying the country's stance. Oil prices slipped on the possibility that the scheduled talks between Trump and Putin in Alaska on Friday could make progress towards a ceasefire in Ukraine and potentially prompt an eventual easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports. Brent dropped 0.9% to $65.97 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 0.8% to $63.38.


Reuters
37 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump urges China to quadruple soybean orders
Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases ahead of a key tariff truce deadline, sending Chicago soybean prices higher, though analysts were quick to question the feasibility of any such deal. In a late night post on Truth Social, Trump said China was worried about a shortage of soybeans and he hoped it would quickly quadruple its soybean orders from the U.S. "Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI," Trump said in his post. The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) jumped 2.38% to $10.11 a bushel at 0637 GMT on Monday after Trump's post. The contract was steady earlier. China, the world's largest soybean buyer, imported roughly 105 million metric tons last year, just under a quarter coming from the U.S. and most of the remainder from Brazil. Quadrupling shipments would require China to import the bulk of its soybeans from the U.S. "It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the U.S.," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on August 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended. It is unclear if securing China's agreement to buy more U.S. soybeans is a condition for extending the truce as Trump looks to reduce China's trade surplus with the U.S. China's soymeal futures fell 0.65% to 3,068 yuan per metric ton on expectations U.S. imports could increase supply. China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Under the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump's first term, China agreed to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. However, Beijing fell far short of meeting those targets. This year, amid Washington–Beijing trade tensions, it has yet to buy any fourth quarter U.S. beans, fuelling concerns as the U.S. harvest export season approaches. "On Beijing's side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego U.S. soybeans altogether this year, including booking those test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina," said Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China. Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soymeal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soybean supply disruption in the fourth quarter. U.S. soybean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China's scale. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S., and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.