NRL Round 18: Teams Talk and Live SuperCoach Q&A
That's even with the Jacob Kiraz and Gehamat Shibasaki Origin selection curveballs.
All of which is leading up to a surprise confession - I'm not trading this week.
Which is not to say that there are no good buys this week.
Those of you who own Luke Metcalf can choose from one very good half, two somewhat risky five-eighths and one very risky five-eighth/fullback.
Elsewhere, in the popular trades to dissect there's a CTW I very much like (but possibly prefer others later), a second-row I very much like (but definitely prefer others later) and a CTW cheapie who I think buyers may regret.
Let's dive in!
BUY/SELL ANALYSIS
The very good CTW - and the guys I'd possibly prefer to wait for …
Mark Nawaqanitawase: The Roosters 'rookie' keeps doing spectacular things in attack, has scored nine tries in his past seven games, and has match-ups against the battling Wests Tigers and Dragons in his next two matches. So, 'why do you prefer others', you might ask - and even if you didn't I will tell you.
How many CTW do we need?
Let's start with the fundamental question - do we need more CTW.
By this stage of the season I am willing to bet (all are in over 80% of teams currently ranked in the top 10%) you own the following CTWs: Dylan Lucas, Reuben Garrick, Herbie Farnworth and Jacob Kiraz. You also almost certainly own late season Broncos money maker Josiah Karapani.
That leaves two CTW slots to fill.
And, perhaps more pertinently, you also almost certainly have three gun fullbacks, at least three gun halves and almost certainly eight, but at a minimum seven gun FRF/2RF combined.
We only have four reserve slots. Assuming your fullback is largely locked into one, then that leaves three.
I'll almost always want my half to take another.
The gun forwards are doing their job providing a safe 70 (ish) PPG - let's assume you have Terrell May/Payne Haas locked into FRF and Eliesa Katoa/Keaon Koloamatangi/AN Other locked into 2RF. That's your five starters. Around those you'll have others - and I think there are two forwards we should definitely target post-Origin - but with the CTW cohort performing so well I think it is fair to suggest that you will be saving two reserve slots for them.
So in answer to my own question: I think we definitely need five and strongly desire six quality CTWs.
Is 'Marky Mark' one of the CTW we need?
This hurts me to my Rooster Booster core - but I say no. Barring injuries I have Nawaqanitawase outside my top-four CTW. That means I am playing him as a reserve based on match-ups. And the match-ups are not great. After the aforementioned Tigers and Dragons the Roosters' draw toughens right up.
From round 20 onwards the draw goes like this:
* Rd 20 Sharks (Away)
* Rd 21 Storm (Home)
* Rd 22 Manly (Away)
* Rd 23 Dolphins (Away)
* Rd 24 Bulldogs (Home)
* Rd 25 Eels (Away)
* Rd 26 Storm (Away)
* Rd 27 Souths (Home)
The Sharks are not travelling great, but still have the sixth best record defending against CTW. He's a play there but with risk.
The Storm are never a great team to play against. Rounds 21 and 26 are No Play.
Manly at home is tough, and are equal 9th at defending CTW, I'd still say he's a play - but again with risk.
The Dolphins can be a little hit and miss but I feel the injuries have finally become too much - play.
The Bulldogs have the best defence in the league - no play.
They will still win games but I expect teams to score okay there. Even away he's a play.
The Eels are a play.
Which leaves round 27 against Souths. This game is always a, pardon my french, shitshow. There's be high hits, sin bins and no matter their respective places on the radar either team could win. Play - but risky.
That's two strong plays, three risky plays and three no plays. Not great.
Chuck in rounds 18 and 19 and that's four plays, three risky plays and three no plays. That's better.
But I prefer the two men below.
Once Origin is over I will be chasing one or both of Zac Lomax and Val Holmes. I'm already waaaaay over Tom's laughable 300 word limit for this story so won't do a deep dive into their respective draws. But rest easy knowing that in my opinion they have roughly the same number of Play/Risky and No play games as Mark N.
But the crucial difference is that both Lomax and Holmes are goalkickers. That job provides a 10-12PPG buffer for each men and so makes them more reliable even in 'risky' games. Holmes has scored 60+ in 85% of games. Lomax has scored 60+ in 80% of games. Nawaqanitawase has scored 60+ in just 67% of games.
Conclusion: As tempted as I am by Nawaqanitawase, I really do think we're better off waiting till after Origin III and buying Lomax and/or Holmes to finish the position.
The very good 2RF - and the guys I'd prefer to wait for …
Jacob Preston is the second most popular buy of the week. And while I do not oppose it - it's hard to knock a forward who has scored five times from his past seven games and has the fifth best average at his position - I still think that the better option is to wait until after Origin III and target either Hudson Young or Angus Crichton.
Young has a better base than Preston and at least as good a try scoring potential. The Canberra left edge has scored triple figures four times (Preston once) and 85+ three other occasions (as has Preston). Unavailable for selection this week due to Origin, then on a bye in round 19, Young then has an enviable draw (though the round 24 bye is not ideal) with five matches against bottom-eight teams, four which are at home, and three of which are against cellar dwellers the Knights, Tigers and Eels.
Crichton is more of a gamble. Currently averaging fully 13PPG less than his 2024 output, the Roosters left-edge forward has scored just one try so far this year. That will change. Available for less than $600K, in under 5% of teams and with a pedigree of going big when he scores, I think the Mighty Angus is the 2RF POD who could win you a H2H battle late in 2025.
A DISCLAIMER
Now, I realise that maybe those buying Preston or Nawaqanitawase this week plan to ALSO get the likes of Lomax/Holmes/Young next week. In which case go for it. But if it is an either/or scenario then you know my position.
The Luke Metcalf replacement options …
Jahrome Hughes: The Storm halfback has been rather rocks or diamonds this year with three tonnes (and one 90+) to his name but also three under 50 in the past five games alone. Melbourne's medium-term draw is great (Cowboys (without Origin stars), Knights, Manly, Roosters and Eels. But their draw to finish the season - Broncos, Panthers, Bulldogs, Roosters and Broncos - is not. MEDIUM BUY
Ethan Strange: The Canberra five-eighth has the second-best 3RA of any 5/8|HFB and as mentioned above the Raiders draw (other than still having two byes left) is good. I do feel that Strange has made the most of what has been a very soft recent draw. RISKY BUY
Ezra Mam: The Broncos five-eighth has been good on his return from suspension. Good not great. I prefer Hughes or Strange. PASS
Kaeo Weekes: Speaking of rocks or diamonds, the Canberra fullback posted his third triple-figure score of the season last weekend. However, in the weeks before that big score, Weekes went 25, 45, 24 and 29. PASS
The CTW cheapie we don't need …
Jed Stuart: 'Ricky's son' has scored a try in each of his NRL games so far which is a fair strike rate. He also upped his workrate last week making 16 runs and 11 tackles (with two misses) both numbers a big lift on his debut. What I don't love is that despite scoring tries in each match Stuart has scored just 45 then 44 points. Despite the negative BE and the aforementioned draw, I just don't think Stuart has the SC game we need from a late cheapie. PASS
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