Crude oil prices may surge to $80 per barrel amid fresh US-Russia tensions: Experts

Time of India

4 days ago

Brent
crude oil prices
are expected to rise to $80 per barrel in the coming months as tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to disrupt the global oil supply chain, highlighted
oil market experts
in conversation with ANI.
Oil prices may face upward pressure as geopolitical risks increase.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, said, "Brent Oil (Oct'25) from $72.07 has a short-term target of $76. Year end 2025 could reach $80-82. Downside support and cap at $69. U.S. President Donald Trump has given Russia a deadline of 10-12 days to end the war in Ukraine, failing which it runs a risk of additional sanctions and secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on countries trading with Russia, which would push the oil prices higher."
This move by US President Trump could further increase oil prices, as countries dependent on Russian crude would face a difficult choice between buying cheaper oil and facing heavy export tariffs to the US.
For WTI Crude Oil (Sep'25), experts expect a short-term target of $73 from the current level of $69.65. The price could rise to $76-79 by the end of 2025, while the downside support is at $65.
Experts said such developments could disrupt the global oil market. A supply shock may result from reduced spare production capacity, which would likely push oil prices higher through 2026.
The dilemma remains that President Trump wants lower oil prices, but a quick increase in US oil production is not possible, as it involves infrastructure, labour, and investment.
Energy expert Narendra Taneja told ANI, "Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global (oil) supply system every day. Crude oil prices would rise significantly - $100 to 120 per barrel, if not more - if the Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains".
He also added, "If Russian oil stops flowing into Indian refineries, prices would rise globally for sure. There would be no shortage of oil in India because our refiners import from 40 different countries, but balancing the price for consumers would be a challenge."
Even if Saudi Arabia and select OPEC countries step in to fill the supply gap, it will take time, adding to short-term price pressure. The oil market could shift into a deficit situation even if OPEC+ does not announce further production cuts.
Meanwhile, the recent US-EU trade deal has provided some support to the market, but geopolitical tensions persist and continue to add upside risks. The market is also closely watching US inventory levels and the upcoming interest rate decision, with a stronger US dollar keeping some pressure on oil prices.
The extended US-China trade truce has also supported market sentiment, but risks remain elevated in the oil sector.