Quantum computing could be commercial real estate's next big tailwind
Quantum computing uses quantum mechanics to solve problems beyond the ability of the most powerful classical computers. Until now, these super computers have mostly lived at academic or government facilities, because they have had limited practical applications. That's also why investment in quantum has lagged AI by about a decade.
But quantum computing is suddenly now advancing quickly and becoming commercially viable. As a result, it now needs its own real estate. A new report from JLL says significant real estate implications are "on the horizon."
"There's going to be a defined point in time where we've reached commercialization of the technology, where there's commercial utility, and at that point we see a significant ramp taking place to the scale of like what we saw with artificial intelligence," said Andrew Batson, head of data center research at JLL.
"We see the private sector play really married to the point at which commercialization of the product takes place," he said.
That point could be just five years away, according to analysts.
Last year, quantum companies brought in less than $750 million in revenue, and startups focused on quantum technology collectively attracted about $2 billion in funding, according to the JLL report, which cited research from McKinsey and Pitchbook. With rapid advancements in just the past year, forecasts suggest quantum computing could see $20 billion in investments by 2030 and generate $100 billion in revenue by 2035, according to the report.
"A potential 'quantum advantage breakthrough' around 2030 could trigger $50B in investments, similar to ChatGPT's effect on AI funding," according to the JLL report.
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Companies like Microsoft, IBM, Google and Amazon are all making investments and breakthroughs in quantum computing.
"The next big accelerator in the cloud will be quantum, and I'm excited about our progress," said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on the company's earnings call last month.
Its practical applications are only just beginning to be understood.
"Think pharma, agriculture and then material science, which really spans all types of manufacturing. Additionally, financial services. If we think about encryption, that's both a huge opportunity and threat presented by quantum," said Batson.
With the vast majority of quantum computing currently living in academic or government institutions, it makes sense that the majority of new development to house it commercially will be concentrated in those regions.
The fledgling industry needs access to academics, infrastructure, an educated workforce, government support, private investment and public-private advocacy, according to JLL experts.
The top 20 global quantum markets today have formed near national research centers and universities. In the U.S., that includes Chicago; Boston; New Haven, Connecticut; parts of Colorado and Maryland and Southern California.
Silicon Valley's PsiQuantum chose a Chicago steel mill complex to open a facility funded primarily by the state of Illinois. The Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park, developed by Related Midwest, is set to span 128 acres, or roughly 5.6 million square feet.
Batson called Chicago the poster child for private real estate development around quantum computing, but he noted that private development overall domestically still makes up less than 20% of the market.
Quantum computing, for now at least, cannot live in the traditional data centers that house AI and the cloud. That's because the racks and the physical form of a quantum computer are different. Quantum computers also need electromagnetic shielding to prevent what's called "noise," which in this case refers to any outside disturbances, be they electrical, magnetic, vibration or sound.
"The primary question I'm getting from clients is, does it make existing data centers obsolete? And the answer to that is no. Quantum computing is accretive to the existing data center infrastructure that exists," said Batson. "Is it redevelopment of existing? Is it brand new? It's all of the above."
There are really two potential trajectories for quantum real estate, according to the JLL report. It could remain concentrated in today's existing hubs or move in with data centers. The argument for the former is that because it is a very specialized technology, there are really very few places that can support it at a larger scale.
On the other hand, data centers could provide necessary cloud infrastructure for the quantum computing of the future. Integrating quantum with AI could make both more efficient.
"It's a period of education and monitoring the development of the technology," said Batson. "We're just kind of waiting to see where it is, what it is, and how it happens."
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