RBI's monetary policy decision, global trade negotiations to guide markets next week
Investors will keenly watch the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upcoming monetary policy decision for future market guidance. Additionally, market participants will monitor global developments, particularly trade tensions, to navigate the ongoing consolidation phase.
India's equity market closed in the red this week. The subdued performance was primarily driven by global trade tensions and anticipation around domestic policy decisions.
Benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, experienced significant swings before closing lower amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff developments and caution ahead of the RBI's policy announcement. Both indices declined over 1%, with the Nifty ending at 24,750.70 and the Sensex at 81,451.01.
'Despite encouraging domestic cues, mixed signals from global markets kept investor sentiment on edge. Initially, optimism prevailed following the RBI's record dividend payout and positive updates regarding the monsoon. However, as the week progressed, concerns surrounding rising U.S. bond yields, trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union, and the ongoing legal battle over U.S. tariffs weighed on market sentiment, limiting the scope for any meaningful recovery,' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
He added that looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6. The market is pricing in a 25bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors.
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The Wire
11 minutes ago
- The Wire
How India's New FTAs Reflect a Particular Geopolitical Vision
Menu हिंदी తెలుగు اردو Home Politics Economy World Security Law Science Society Culture Editor's Pick Opinion Support independent journalism. Donate Now Economy How India's New FTAs Reflect a Particular Geopolitical Vision Sharmila Kantha 3 minutes ago As India inks a landmark trade deal with the UK, it's clear: a decisive pivot is underway. FTAs are no longer just economic instruments – they're now central to India's global power play. Representative image. Photo: Real journalism holds power accountable Since 2015, The Wire has done just that. But we can continue only with your support. Contribute now India is according a ' high degree of urgency ' to entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom and other advanced nations, which are seen as complementary, more competitive and open-market economies with conducive business environments. The process of negotiations has gained intensity since US President Trump's announcements on 'reciprocal tariffs' to be imposed on all its trading partners. While the stated additional tariffs of 26% on Indian goods have been deferred by 90 days as with other countries, during Prime Minister Modi's visit to the US in February 2025, India and the US had already decided to finalise the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement by the fourth quarter of 2025. They further agreed upon the terms of reference for the negotiations during US Vice President Vance's visit to India in April 2025. The renewed focus on FTAs with developed countries is part of a shift in India's global economic strategy over the last few years, where it has prioritised leveraging its own large market for better access to partner markets with transparent trading mechanisms. Accordingly, trade and economic agreements have been inked with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), United Arab Emirates, Australia, and Mauritius over the last five years. The India-UK FTA was concluded this month, with the text of the many chapters yet to be finalised. In addition, negotiations are ongoing with New Zealand, Qatar, and Oman. Act East policy and the evolution of India's trade agreements India's first economic agreement took place with Sri Lanka in 1999, followed up with a spate of pacts with Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Singapore, and others. While some of the agreements were comprehensive in scope, covering trade in goods and services and investments, others related to preferential trade agreements with limited concessions on both sides. Agreements with both developed and middle-income countries to the east of India were aimed at enhancing India's participation in global value chains, lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers in rapidly growing markets, and building strategic partnerships beyond trade. For example, the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement came into force on 1 January 2010, followed by the ASEAN-India Trade in Services Agreement and the ASEAN-India Investment Agreement, both signed in November 2014. These pacts solidified India's 'Look East' policy, which was later upgraded to the 'Act East' policy. At the same time, many rounds of discussions were held, including with the EU, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Australia, and New Zealand, which did not yield outcomes and were shelved. Thus, there was a gap of several years before India revisited its FTA policy (Kumar 2025). India's trade performance with major partners This gap arose as data on existing agreements revealed that India's imports from its FTA partners rose at a faster pace than its exports, leading to growing trade deficits with these countries (Srivastava 2025). Over a longer term, it has been found that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of India's imports and exports for the period 2009-10 to 2023-24 has varied greatly, and within this, trade with FTA partners has been relatively subdued as compared to trade with other major partners. Table 1. India's imports and exports with select economies, 2009-10 and 2023-24, in US$ million Imports Exports Country/Region 2009-10 2023-24 CAGR % 2009-10 2023-24 CAGR % EU 34 61.5 4.3 29.9 75.9 6.9 ^ EFTA 15.6 22 2.5 0.8 1.9 6.2 UK* 4.5 8.4 4.6 6.2 13 5.4 US 17 42.2 6.7 19.5 77.5 10.4 ^ Australia* 12.4 16.2 1.9 1.3 7.9 13.3 ^ ASEAN # 25.8 79.7 8.4 18.1 41.2 6.1 Indonesia # 8.7 23.4 7.4 3.1 6 4.9 Malaysia # 5.2 12.8 6.7 2.8 7.2 7 ^ Singapore # 6.5 21.2 8.9 7.6 14.4 4.7 Thailand # 2.9 9.9 9.1 1.7 5 7.9 ^ Vietnam # 0.5 9.3 22.9 1.8 5.5 8.1 ^ GCC 53.5 105.5 5 30.8 56.3 4.5 China 30.8 101.7 8.9 11.6 16.7 2.6 Japan # 6.7 17.7 7.1 3.6 5.2 2.5 South Korea # 8.6 21.1 6.7 3.4 6.4 4.6 SAARC 1.7 5.2 8.5 8.4 25.6 8.3 ^ India's Total 288.4 678.2 6.3 178.8 437.1 6.6 Source: Author's calculations based on data from the Department of Commerce, Government of India. Note: * denotes countries with recent agreements # denotes countries/regions with which FTAs have been in place for several years ^ denotes countries with which India has a higher export CAGR than its overall export CAGR India's export CAGR for 2009-10 to 2023-24 was 6.6%. In Table 1, it may be seen that the pace of India's exports has been particularly brisk for countries/regions with which India does not yet have an FTA. For example, exports to the US grew by over 10% CAGR during the period 2009-10 to 2023-24. In Australia, where the FTA was not implemented until the end of December 2022, the CAGR stood at over 13%. A significant concern is the poor growth in exports to Japan and South Korea at a rate of just 2.5% and 4.6% respectively, far below India's overall CAGR. Despite a comprehensive agreement in place with South Korea since 2010 and with Japan since 2011, exports to these countries have been slow to grow, even for goods where India has a comparative advantage, such as garments and pharmaceuticals. However, both countries have preferred the investment route in economic engagement with India and have seen high success in manufacturing in India across sectors such as consumer durables and automobiles. Storied brands operating in the country, including Suzuki, Toyota, Samsung and LG, among many others, have also built significant exports from India. Trade with SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries, where the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) is in place, expanded significantly faster than India's overall trade, for both exports and imports, although the trade balance is overwhelmingly in India's favour. As a large economy of the region, it should attempt to build and diversify its imports from these countries to address the trade imbalance as well as to build its own regional value chains with its friendly neighbours. The fact that the CAGR for India's imports is a little higher than the CAGR for exports to these countries is encouraging, with Bangladesh seeing a CAGR of 15% and Sri Lanka at close to 10%, although the value is below US$ 2 billion for each. On the import side, India's imports from its FTA partners have certainly grown faster than its exports to these countries and also faster than its total imports. The five large ASEAN economies were particularly successful in addressing the Indian market, especially Vietnam, from where imports increased almost 18 times during the period. The non-FTA partner countries with which imports grew faster than total imports include China and the US. Barriers to trade and the way forward India is currently reviewing the older FTAs with its Act East partners, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea. However, the negotiations have not concluded even after several years of discussions. In most cases, the non-tariff barriers that India faces vis-à-vis these partners relate to standards and certifications which apply to their imports from all their source partners, and it is unlikely that these would be scaled down for India. In addition, some of the countries export primary or intermediate goods to India, which are needed for its manufacturing sector. Further, India's tariffs were higher at the outset than the tariffs prevalent in these partner countries, and hence the concessions were deeper, encouraging faster growth in imports from these countries. The discussions with the US and the EU, which are keenly eyeing the large and growing Indian market, are also posing certain challenges, which are present in the India-UK FTA as well. First, the FTAs necessitate deeper tariff cuts from India as the tariff rates in these economies are already quite low (before the US reciprocal tariffs take effect). Two, India faces stringent non-tariff measures and non-trade-related issues in these countries. For instance, India has stressed that the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) go beyond trade, and if the EU continues to insist on these issues, an FTA would be difficult to finalise. Three, sectors such as dairy products, agricultural goods, automobiles, and alcohol are also sticking points in these negotiations. Again, the India-UK FTA will set a precedent in these sectors. Finally, the Western countries are keen to include issues such as labour, intellectual property, sustainability, and data management, among others, that could be onerous for India to meet (Kumar 2025). Carbon tax, immigration, and investment regulations were issues of fervent discussions with the UK, and several of the chapters included in the agreement such as government procurement, anti-corruption, and gender equity are a first for India. The extent to which India cedes policy space in these areas will be known only after the legal texts are finalised. Thus, there could be a repeat of the earlier experience of FTAs with low utilisation rates by Indian exporters (Choudhury 2023). Following the US tariff shock, there may be a softening of stance in these partners as well as in India's position. However, the new FTAs are likely to be more complex and demanding for India, and their optimal utilisation will depend largely on India's own internal reforms. While India intensifies its FTA negotiations with Western countries, its Act East policy must also remain proactive to enhance the country's strategic presence in its proximate neighborhood. Among the Asian economies, Japan and South Korea have been staunch partners for India's growth, and other economies continue to grow rapidly and deepen their integration into global value chains. As global trade shifts, India needs to be strongly linked to these value chains. Deeper economic engagement with these countries will help strengthen the gains of the decades-long policy. In a changing global trade regime, India must tread with care to balance the markets to its West and East and align its geopolitical and geo-economic objectives. Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist with Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Associated with Indian industry for over 20 years, she has worked extensively on issues relating to economic policy and India's international economic engagement. She is the author of three books on Indian business history and her articles have been published on several websites. This article was originally published on Ideas for India. Make a contribution to Independent Journalism Related News India's Little-Known Role in African Slave Trade The World's 'Fourth Largest Economy' and its Deepest Divide Has India Really Become the World's Fourth-Largest Economy? India Rejects Claim That Trump's Trade Threat Averted War With Pakistan 'Trade Offer Averted India-Pakistan War': Trump Administration Tells US Court Watch | India Overtakes Japan as the Fourth-Largest Economy: Is the Excitement Justified? FTA: UK to Remove 99% of Tariffs on Indian Goods; India to Cut Duties on Whiskey, Autos India and China: Two Contrasting Models of Dealing With Trump's US India Out of Work: Unemployed Youth Become 'Discouraged Workers' View in Desktop Mode About Us Contact Us Support Us © Copyright. All Rights Reserved.
United News of India
13 minutes ago
- United News of India
Sensex crashes over 600 pts
Mumbai, June 2 (UNI) The BSE Sensex on Monday dropped 610.30 pts at 80,840.71 in early trade on weak global cues. Even US tariff concern hit the market further. The Nifty fell 182 pts at 24,567.30. The BSE Sensex opened on a weak note at 81,214.42, falling 237 pts, it was immediately tanked more than 600 pts to 80,840.71 pts. As it registered intra-day high and low at 81,285.85 and 80,802.60 respectively. The Nifty registered days high at 24,717.55 and low at 24,559.45 pts. Selling was seen across the board, especially IT, Metal and Focused IT were down more than 1 percent. The Mid cap eased 0.28 pc and small cap by 0.45 pc. In 30 scrips, 7 advanced while 23 declined. The losers were L& T by 1.90 pc to Rs 3605.90, Tata Steel by 1.74 pc to Rs 158.20, Infosys by 1.38 pc to Rs 1401 and HCL Technology by 1.36 pc to Rs 1615.25. The gainers were Hind Unilever by 1.22 pc to Rs 2378, Nestle India Ltd by 0.52 pc to Rs 2409.10, Adani Ports by 0.43 pc to Rs 1438.55 and Eternal by 0.31 pc to Rs 239.50. All global markets, include US, European and Asian Markets were down. UNI NV GNK
Time of India
19 minutes ago
- Time of India
Stocks to buy today: Paytm, Swiggy among top 5 trading ideas for 2 June 2025
Nifty may consolidate with a positive bias; key support at 24,444, upside seen above 24,800. The Indian market is expected to consolidate with a positive bias on Monday amid mixed global cues. Nifty futures closed lower at 24,852 on Friday, while India VIX dropped over 2%. Analysts suggest a broader trading range of 24,300–25,300. Key levels to watch are 24,800 for upside momentum and 24,444 on the downside. Experts recommend stocks like Paytm, Swiggy, and Bajaj Finserv. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Stock Recommendations for Short-Term Traders Expert: Aakash Hindocha, Technical Analyst, Research at Nuvama Wealth (via ETBureau) Expert: Kunal Bothra, Market Expert (via ETNow) Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Indian market is likely to consolidate with a positive bias on Monday, tracking mixed global Nifty futures closed lower with a loss of 0.36% at 24,852 on Friday. India VIX fell over 2% to close at 16.08 in the previous the options front, the maximum Call open interest (OI) is seen at the 24,800 and 25,000 strike prices, while the maximum Put OI is at 24,500 followed by 24, writing was observed at 24,800 and 25,500 strikes, while Put writing was seen at 24,400 and 24,000 strikes.'Options data suggests a broader trading range between 24,300 to 25,300 zones, with an immediate range between 24,500 to 25,000,' said Chandan Taparia, Analyst – Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services 'On the technical front, Nifty formed an inside bar pattern on both the daily and weekly charts last week, reflecting indecision and a narrowing price range,' he added.'Now, it has to cross and hold above the 24,800 zone for an upward move towards 25,000 and then 25,200. Otherwise, weakness could be seen towards 24,600 and then 24,444,' Taparia the weekly scale, Nifty Bank formed a small bullish candle on Friday and posted its highest weekly close in five | Target: Rs 985 | Stop Loss: Rs 852Buy | Target: Rs 366 | Stop Loss: Rs 320Buy | Target: Rs 2,060 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,990Buy | Target: Rs 240 | Stop Loss: Rs 215Buy | Target: Rs 155 | Stop Loss: Rs 143: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
