Trump's big bill achieved what conservatives have been trying to do for decades
The massive legislation that Trump plans to sign Friday will make his campaign promises a reality by extending tax cuts enacted during his first term, and creating new deductions aimed at the working-class voters who backed his re-election.
But it will also fundamentally reorder two major social safety net programs, slashing funding and imposing new work requirements that nonpartisan estimates say will cost millions of people their benefits. The ripple effects, experts say, will be felt across the country, and not just by the poor.
'Sometimes people like to feel like this is an us versus them [issue], but this is really all of us. It is the people that your kids are going to school with it, is your neighbor, the people that you play soccer with,' said Lelaine Bigelow, executive director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality 'This is going to have a massive effect on a lot of people around this country.'
The 'one big, beautiful bill', as Trump calls it, won final approval by the House of Representatives on Thursday, in time for his signature on 4 July, the US Independence Day holiday. In addition to the tax cuts, it will also channel tens of billions in dollars towards immigration enforcement and building a wall along the Mexican border.
To cut costs, Republicans included provisions to end green energy incentives created under Joe Biden, but the bulk of the savings will come from changes to two programs: Medicaid, which provides healthcare to low-income and disabled Americans, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap), which helps low-income Americans afford food.
Both programs will face new and stricter work requirements, and states will be forced to share part of the cost of Snap for the first time ever. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the bill's Medicaid changes could cost as many as 11.8 million people their healthcare, and the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities forecasts about 8 million people, or one in five recipients, may lose their Snap benefits.
The GOP argues that the bill will not cut Medicaid or Snap, but weed out 'waste, fraud and abuse' thereby making the programs more efficient. At one point, House speaker Mike Johnson circulated research from the conservative American Enterprise Institute finding that, after sleeping, playing video games was how Medicaid recipients who do not work spend most of their time.
If they did not act, Republicans warned, the 2017 tax cuts would expire this year, many Americans would be forced to pay more, and economic growth would suffer. However, analyses of the law found that it was the highest earners who felt most of the benefit from the tax regimen.
Bigelow warns that the benefit cuts will be the most widespread effect of the bill. Her center's research found that 34% of the country's population will be negatively affected by the bill, mostly through the Snap and Medicaid cuts, while just under 2% of taxpayers are in the income bracket that will get most of the tax relief.
And though the bill cuts taxes on tips, overtime and car loan interest, they only to last through 2028.
Even Americans who do not interact with federal safety programs could feel the economic effects of its retrenchment. Fewer Snap enrollees could mean less business for grocery stores, while rural hospitals could be hard hit by the Medicaid cuts, even with a $50bn fund included in the bill to help those in poor financial shape.
Robert Manduca, a University of Michigan sociology professor, forecast a $120bn per year hit to local economies from the benefit cuts. Employees and business owners, he warned, 'might see their job become less secure because the demand in their local economy is getting reduced'.
Paradoxically, the bill is still hugely expensive. The CBO forecasts it will add $3.3tn to the deficit through 2034, mostly due to the tax cuts. For fiscal hawks concerned about the sustainability of the country's budget deficit, which has yawned higher in recent years as Washington DC battled the Covid-19 pandemic with massive fiscal stimulus, there's little beauty in Trump's bill.
'Yes, the economy may well enjoy a sugar-high the next couple of years, as borrowing stimulates near-term consumption,' said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for lowering the deficit.
'But a sugar-high won't be sustained, it will do real damage, and often what comes next is the crash. The longer-term health of our economy, American families, and our children will be worse off due to this debt-financed bill.'
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The Guardian
14 minutes ago
- The Guardian
US and Ukraine to work on strengthening air defences, Zelenskyy says, after call Trump says was ‘meaningful'
Update: Date: 2025-07-04T16:36:01.000Z Title: Volodymyr Zelenskyy Content: All-night attack on Kyiv followed conversation between US president and Putin. This live blog is closed Russian drone attack on Kyiv Jakub Krupa and Tom Ambrose (earlier) Fri 4 Jul 2025 18.31 CEST First published on Fri 4 Jul 2025 09.27 CEST From 4.28pm CEST 16:28 Ukrainian president said he spoke with US president Donald Trump about the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defence amid escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. In a brief note about their call, published on Telegram, he said the US president was 'very well informed' about the situation in Ukraine, as the pair discussed 'the possibilities of air defence and agreed that we will work on increasing the protection in the sky.' He said they agreed to hold a separate meeting between their teams on this issue. Zelenskyy added that they also talked about the opportunities for joint arms production, saying 'we are ready for direct projects with America,' as well as potential other joint purchases and investments. The Ukrainian president also passed his best wishes on the US Independence Day, thanking for the US support so far. 'We have done a lot together with America and support all efforts to stop the killings and restore a normal, stable, dignified peace. A decent agreement is needed for peace, and Ukraine supports American proposals,' he said. Updated at 4.30pm CEST 6.31pm CEST 18:31 Jakub Krupa … and on that note, it's a wrap! Donald Trump spoke with Ukraine's president, , on Friday as the US president appears increasingly disheartened over his chances of fulfilling a campaign pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine (9:27). Ukrainian president said the US president was 'very well informed' about the situation in Ukraine, as the pair discussed 'the possibilities of air defence and agreed that we will work on increasing the protection in the sky' (16:28). Germany also earlier said it would look to help with air defence, confirming 'intensitve discussions' on the issue, including on buying the US Patriot defence system for Ukraine (11:57), with chancellor Friedrich Merz also speaking with Trump in the last 24 hours (15:43). The phone call came after Russia struck Kyiv with the highest number of drones and missiles since the start of the war, Ukraine said (9:59), with Polish foreign minister telling Trump in a social media post that Russia's Putin was 'mocking his peace efforts' (11:21). Separately, French president Emmanuel Macron and British prime minister Keir Starmer will co-chair a Ukraine summit in the UK on 10 July (13:17). In other news, Only half of young people in France and Spain believe that democracy is the best form of government, with support even lower among their Polish counterparts, a study has found (13:59). A strike by French air traffic controllers entered its second day, leaving many passengers stranded at the start of Europe's peak travel season (14:21). Large parts of the Czech Republic including the capital city of Prague were hit by a major blackout, causing widespread disruption (13:42). The number of people injured in a massive gas explosion at a petrol station in Rome on Friday has risen to 45, with two in a critical condition (16:48). Finland's president Alexander Stubb approved the country's withdrawal from a treaty banning anti-personnel mines, citing a 'deteriorated security situation' and longer-term threat from Russia (14:08). Germany's interior minister plans to host an EU summit to push for stricter rules for the bloc's asylum system in Bavaria on 18 July, a ministry spokesperson said, as the new government seeks to deliver on a campaign pledge (13:46). In Spain, more than 35,000 people have signed onto a petition calling on the government to decree a maximum temperature at which people can work outdoors (13:33). And that's all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today. If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at I am also on Bluesky at @ and on X at @jakubkrupa. 6.13pm CEST 18:13 EU and US negotiators will hold final stretch talks through the weekend as Brussels chases a deal before a 9 July deadline to avoid the return of steep tariffs, diplomats said, as reported by AFP. If the European Union does not clinch an agreement with the United States by Wednesday next week, higher levies will snap back in and unleash economic pain on the bloc. During a Friday briefing for member states, a senior EU official told countries there was no deal yet but talks would continue 'likely over the weekend', an EU diplomat told AFP. 5.59pm CEST 17:59 We're now getting a bit more on this developing story with Ukraine saying that a Russian strike hit power line to the plant, causing blackout. 5.47pm CEST 17:47 As we wait to hear from Trump, the International Atomic Energy Agency said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has lost all off-site power today. They said it's the 9th time this happened during 'military conflict,' but added that it's only the first time since late 2023. 'The ZNPP currently relies on power from its emergency diesel generators, underlining extremely precarious nuclear safety situation,' it added. AFP noted that the power plant's six reactors are all shut down but the plant requires power to its cooling systems for safety. Updated at 5.54pm CEST 5.19pm CEST 17:19 Ajit Niranjan European capitals scorched by extreme heat this week – such as Berlin, Paris and Madrid – can expect to see twice as many heatwave days by the end of the century, a new analysis from Climate Analytics has found, unless faster action is taken to reduce fossil fuel pollution. Current climate policies are projected to heat the planet by about 2-3C by the end of the century, a level of warming that will translate into a catastrophic worsening of weather extremes. The analysis found annual heatwave days are set to more than double by the end of the century in Paris (to 41 days) and Berlin (to 48 days). In Madrid, they are on track to almost triple (to 57 days). Athens and Rome could expect to see 58 and 61 heatwave days, Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said it was important that people understood the dangers of overshooting 1.5C of global warming – the level world leaders agreed to aim for by 2100 at a climate conference in Paris 10 years ago – and that they redoubled efforts to cut pollution if it was breached. 'It's doubly disappointing in the same week that European citizens have been losing loved ones to unmanageable heat, that the EU has watered down its own 2040 climate target,' he said. On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed cutting planet-heating pollution by 90% by 2040 but - in a bid to win over reluctant member states - allowed the limited purchase of foreign carbon credits to offset slow action at home. The proposal fell short of recommendations from the EU's own climate science advisors, who had called for a 90-90% target without the use of offsets. 'We need European leadership on this issue now more than ever,' said Hare. 'Watering down commitments is completely the wrong move at the wrong time.' 4.48pm CEST 16:48 Lorenzo Tondo in Palermo The number of people injured in a massive gas explosion at a petrol station in Rome on Friday has risen to 45, with two in a critical condition. Among the wounded are police officers, firefighters and emergency workers who had responded to an earlier, smaller blast triggered when a truck struck a gas pipe. The second explosion, which occurred in the northeast of the capital, was powerful enough to be heard across the city, sending a wave of panic through neighbourhoods. A thick column of smoke was visible from many areas of Rome. The injured were taken to nine hospitals across the city. They include local residents hurt by flying shards from shattered windows. Medical officials said six people were in a 'code red' condition, with two on life support. The critically injured pair suffered burns over 55% and 25% of their bodies, along with inhalation trauma and barotrauma – injuries caused by the force of the air displacement from the blast. Of the 45 injured, 24 are civilians, 12 are police officers, six are firefighters and three are emergency services personnel. Fabio Balzani, who manages a nearby summer camp, told state agency Ansa it was fortunate the explosion happened early in the day. 'It would have been a massacre if the usual 60 children and 120 pool guests had been there,' he said. Early-morning staff and the first children to arrive were evacuated after the initial gas smell was detected. Environmental campaign group Legambiente called for fewer petrol and gas stations in urban areas, warning that extreme summer heat raises the risk of such incidents. Taxpayers' association Federcontribuenti added that 'the facility should not have been placed in that location'. Health authorities issued warnings about the dangers of exposure to Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG). 'LPG, a mixture of propane and butane, if inhaled in high concentrations can cause nausea, dizziness, neurological issues, loss of consciousness and, in the most severe cases, asphyxiation,' said the Italian Society of Environmental Medicine (SIMA). 'Direct contact with the cryogenic liquid can also result in cold burns and serious skin damage.' Local residents were advised to keep windows shut as fumes and ash from the blaze continued to spread through the area. 4.43pm CEST 16:43 Jakub Krupa As we wait to hear from Trump on his call with Zelenskyy, let me bring you updates on that gas explosion in Rome earlier today and on the European heatwave. 4.28pm CEST 16:28 Ukrainian president said he spoke with US president Donald Trump about the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defence amid escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities. In a brief note about their call, published on Telegram, he said the US president was 'very well informed' about the situation in Ukraine, as the pair discussed 'the possibilities of air defence and agreed that we will work on increasing the protection in the sky.' He said they agreed to hold a separate meeting between their teams on this issue. Zelenskyy added that they also talked about the opportunities for joint arms production, saying 'we are ready for direct projects with America,' as well as potential other joint purchases and investments. The Ukrainian president also passed his best wishes on the US Independence Day, thanking for the US support so far. 'We have done a lot together with America and support all efforts to stop the killings and restore a normal, stable, dignified peace. A decent agreement is needed for peace, and Ukraine supports American proposals,' he said. Updated at 4.30pm CEST 4.10pm CEST 16:10 Jakub Krupa If and when we hear from Trump or Zelenskyy, I will bring you their comments here immediately. 3.48pm CEST 15:48 Andriy Yermak, the most senior aide to Ukrainian president , said in a brief social media update that the call with Trump was 'a very important and meaningful conversation between the presidents.' 'All details will be available very soon,' he added. 3.43pm CEST 15:43 Meanwhile, German magazine Spiegel reports that German chancellor Friedrich Merz also spoke with US president Donald Trump, discussing the situation in Ukraine and EU-US trade. Spiegel reported that Trump made no commitments during the call, with Germany reportedly calling for more support for Ukraine on air defence. Updated at 3.46pm CEST 2.56pm CEST 14:56 Russia pummelled Kyiv with the largest drone attack of the war, killing one person, injuring at least 23 and damaging buildings across the capital hours after US president Donald Trump spoke to Russia's Vladimir Putin, officials said on Friday. Air raid sirens, the whine of kamikaze drones and booming detonations reverberated from early evening until dawn as Russia launched what Ukraine's Air Force said was a total of 539 drones and 11 missiles. Families huddled in underground metro stations for shelter. Acrid smoke hung over the city centre. Kyiv's military administration chief said on Friday afternoon a body had been found in the wreckage of one of the strike sites. Updated at 3.06pm CEST 2.23pm CEST 14:23 Jakub Krupa That brings you up to date on most important things happening in Europe today. Let's go back to Ukraine, as we wait more details on that much anticipated Trump-Zelenskyy call. Updated at 2.24pm CEST 2.21pm CEST 14:21 A strike by French air traffic controllers entered its second day, leaving many passengers stranded at the start of Europe's peak travel season, Reuters reported. Civil aviation agency DGAC told airlines to cancel 40% of flights at the three main Paris airports because of the strike, which the air traffic controllers say is over staff shortages and ageing equipment. Up to half of flights at France's other airports, mostly in the south, were also affected, DGAC added. The Airlines for Europe (A4E) lobby group said late on Thursday that 1,500 flights had been cancelled over the two-day strike, affecting 300,000 passengers and causing cascading delays. 2.08pm CEST 14:08 Finland's president Alexander Stubb approved the country's withdrawal from a treaty banning anti-personnel mines, citing a 'deteriorated security situation' and longer-term threat from Russia, AFP reported. Finnish lawmakers voted to leave the anti-landmine Ottawa Convention in June but the decision needed to be signed by the president. 'Finland is not facing an immediate military threat, but the changes in the operating environment require that we strengthen our defence,' Stubb said in a statement. 'We have a long border with Russia, which is not a party to the Ottawa Agreement. We have seen how Russia wages war today.' AFP noted that Finland's decision will come into effect six months after the country formally notifies the United Nations. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as Poland, also plan to exit the treaty.
The Guardian
15 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Japan walks line between recession and submission as it seeks to overcome Trump tariffs
It all seemed to be going so well. In April, Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, sat opposite Donald Trump in the Oval Office after 'positive and constructive' talks, sporting a Maga baseball cap and giving a thumbs up for the cameras. Japan's economic revitalisation minister drew criticism back home for the gesture, forcing him to insist there was 'no political significance' behind it. But the backdrop to the offending photo was far more significant than the uncomfortable optics. Akazawa's trade delegation was in Washington to begin tariff negotiations with its American counterparts that officials in Tokyo were initially optimistic would end with Japan's exemption from Trump's most egregious protectionist instincts. 'A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade,' Trump wrote on Truth Social after meeting Akazawa. 'Big Progress!' Eleven weeks and seven rounds of talks later, Japan and the US have reached an impasse, with Trump unleashing on his country's most important ally in the Asia-Pacific the kind of invective he once reserved for China and the European Union: 'They won't take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,' he wrote online, adding it showed 'how spoiled countries have become'. The friction is beginning to seep into other parts of the bilateral relationship, with Tokyo and Washington at odds, to varying degrees, on the cost of hosting American troops in Japan and recent attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. To add insult to injury, the chasm that has opened up between Tokyo and Washington on trade came as the US agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese imports from 46% to 20%. Japan now has just days before the end of Trump's 90-day pause on the imposition of punishing tariffs to pull off a breakthrough. Much will depend on Akazawa's ability to convince American negotiators to withdraw or reduce a 25% levy on Japanese cars imposed in April. That is on top of a possible rise in reciprocal duties on other Japanese goods to 24% from the current baseline of 10%. But if anything, the mood music from Washington indicates that Trump is even less inclined to make concessions ahead of the president's second tariff 'liberation day', despite constant reminders from senior politicians in Tokyo of the value Japan brings to the US economy. They include the prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, who noted this week that Japan is the largest foreign investor in the US and its biggest contributor in terms of job creation. 'Our hope is that this will be taken into consideration,' he said. Just days earlier, Trump had framed Japan in terms that prompted as much consternation as anger on this side of the Pacific. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, he floated the idea of raising tariffs on imports from Japan to 30% or 35%, and bemoaned its consumers' lack of enthusiasm for American cars and rice. 'I'm not sure we're going to make a deal. I doubt it,' Trump said, labelling Japan 'very tough' and 'very spoiled'. Japan has much to lose if it fails to secure an extension to the deadline on reciprocal tariffs or convince the US to lower duties. The US is Japan's second-biggest trading partner after China, with exports to the US totalling $148.2bn last year. Trade between the two countries was worth an estimated $227.9bn last year, while the autos sector is already suffering from existing tariffs, with exports to the US dropping 25% in May compared to a year ago. That will not put the brakes on Trump's mission to hack away at Japan's $68bn trade surplus with the US – hence his recent demands that it increase imports of US oil and other goods. The trade row has landed Ishiba and his government in a predicament every bit as sticky as the early-summer heat and humidity blanketing Japan. Battered by funding scandals, soaring rice prices and a cost-of-living crisis, Ishiba's administration is limping into the campaign for upper house elections on 20 July, nine months after his Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner lost their majority in the lower house. Any inkling that Tokyo is prepared to bend to Trump's demands will not go down well with voters, while analysts warn that the economic impact of accepting higher tariffs could push the Japanese economy – the world's fifth biggest – into recession. Japan's rice crisis has also become a point of contention, as the government attempts to bring down prices with the release of almost all of its 1m tonnes of stockpiled grain, along with a rise in cheaper imports. Japan has imported historically high volumes of US rice in recent months, and yet despite Trump's threats, is reluctant to agree to anything that would ignite anger among rice farmers – a politically influential group in the LDP. Washington is also pressuring Japan to boost imports of other US farm products, as well as cars and oil, to help reduce the trade deficit. Japan has declined to comment on Trump's threat to impose even higher tariffs, saying it would pursue 'sincere' bilateral talks. 'We are aware of what President Trump said, but we don't comment on every remark made by US government officials,' the deputy chief cabinet secretary, Kazuhiko Aoki, said this week 'We intend to advance bilateral talks in a sincere and faithful manner toward reaching an agreement that will benefit both Japan and the United States.' Tariffs, though, are putting strain on what the former US ambassador to Tokyo, Mike Mansfield, once described as the 'most important bilateral relationship in the world, bar none'. After failing to make progress with Trump during a meeting at the G7 in Canada last month, Ishiba abruptly cancelled plans to attend the Nato summit in The Hague – a move analysts attributed to ongoing friction over trade. Japan also declined to offer full-throated support for the US attacks on Iran, saying only that it 'understood' Washington's determination to halt Tehran's nuclear weapons programme. This week, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, called off his first visit to Japan and South Korea, saying he was needed in Washington for talks with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Amid rumours that he is preparing to make yet another trip to Washington this weekend, Akazawa has limited room for manoeuvre – and precious little time, according to analysts. 'Practical and electoral constraints will prevent Japan from offering major concessions on autos, rice, and oil, with negotiators set to continue their slow-and-steady approach,' said James Brady, vice-president of the political risk advisory firm Teneo. 'The probability of a deal being reached before next week's [tariff] deadline appears increasingly low.'
BBC News
an hour ago
- BBC News
Chelsea Club World Cup tickets available for £8
Tickets for Chelsea's Club World Cup quarter-final against Palmeiras are on sale for just £8.17 ($11.15) amid concerns over another low attendance at the newly-expanded tournament in the United States. They are among the cheapest tickets at the Club World Cup to date, although some have gone for as low as £3.60 ($5) for matches involving minnows in the group stage. Sources have explained that Fifa expected a lower attendance because of a free Fourth of July parade and concert, taking place at the same time in Philadelphia, where the Declaration of Independence was drafted in matches have not been well-attended outside of the group-stage game in Philadelphia against Flamengo that saw 54,019 inside Lincoln Financial Field. Matches against Los Angeles FC, ES Tunis and Benfica had crowds of 22,137, 32,967 and 25,929, respectively - leaving stadiums more than half-empty in Atlanta, Philadelphia and Charlotte. Several Chelsea fans have told BBC Sport that they have seen tickets refunded and offered back at lower rates after complaints about the dynamic pricing structure, common at US-based sporting events, being used in the competition. A mixture of reasons have been cited, including extreme heat and thunderstorms for supporters, a potential lack of interest, kick-off times when the majority of US-based fans are working, poor marketing locally and initial high prices of more than $200 set by Fifa when announcing the matches in December. Tickets prices for Real Madrid's quarter-final with Borussia Dortmund in New Jersey on Saturday start at $183.40 (£134.37), while the most affordable for Paris St-Germain versus Bayern Munich are currently listed at $83.65 (£61.29) in Atlanta. However, after both Manchester City and Inter Milan suffered upsets in the round of 16, the upcoming Al Hilal against Fluminense tie in Orlando, Florida has tickets from $11.15 (£8.17). The cheapest ticket for the final was $732 (£536.31) but is now going for $390 (£285.74).
