Europe must wake up to hard power reality
A clip of Alex Younger, the former head of the UK's MI6 intelligence service, speaking about the current situation in Ukraine during an appearance on the BBC's 'Newsnight' program has been widely distributed across social media this week. In the clip, Younger starts by stating that we are no longer living in a world determined by 'rules and multilateralism' but by 'strongmen and deals.' Ask anyone in the Middle East and they will tell you the hard truth: we never left the world of strongmen and deals. It is Europe and the West, under full US protection, that have lived under the illusion or delusion that it is multilateralism and international rules that are key to global geopolitics.
For the rest of the world, we are still in the Yalta-type situation Younger referenced. The Yalta Conference, held in the Crimea in February 1945 and attended by Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin, outlined postwar Europe's division, Germany's occupation, the formation of the UN and Soviet influence over Eastern Europe. The true division happened during the Potsdam Conference, held in July 1945, which finalized Germany's division and demanded Japan's unconditional surrender. Afterward, the two superpowers moved into the Cold War era.
The new reality Younger mentioned is anything but new. As he stated, 'it is not soft power or values' that determines countries' sphere of influence, 'it is hard power.' It has always been hard power and nothing else that has determined everything. You can sprinkle some soft power and values on top of the cake to make it look nice and to cover the taste of eggs in the recipe, but the recipe is, always has been and always will be hard power. I will not go deeper into the values he mentions, as Europe and the West have lost their true values to the progressive movement.
On the topic of soft and hard power, I remember a conversation I had with a retired French official who already understood these realities more than a decade ago. He stated the reality of the softening of the Western world on the international scene. He bluntly stated that, without hard power, 'we are only cheese and wine salespeople.' And so, the calculations when it comes to Ukraine and for Europe to achieve its own 'sphere of influence,' as mentioned by Younger, are quite simple. The Europeans need to cut through the fog and ask themselves: Are we willing to enter an all-out war? This is the costly 'entry ticket' Younger alluded to if Europe is to enter the conversation and gain a sphere of influence.
He is right that Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine has been clumsy and weak. Many military analysts I talked to in 2008 said the same of Russia's campaign in Georgia, which it nevertheless won. This was also evident in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the support of Turkiye — a NATO ally — proved much more powerful than Moscow's. But Russia is now in an economy of war and is adapting fast. Europe is an economy of Ozempic and Louis Vuitton bags.
Hence, the delusion that you can apply soft power and get what you want in an arena of war must be destroyed. Might I remind everyone that it was the victors that sat together in Yalta, not the defeated. Millions died. And so, what do we see on the ground in Ukraine? Let us firstly remember that the Russian military move took place in 2022, when Joe Biden was US president, and the buildup to it has often been disregarded. Today, Ukraine is doing the best it can with US military support. But it will not be able to defeat Russia or even repel it. This is now clear. It has been for the past three years. So, what should be the next step? Negotiate an exit from the war or fight harder?
The delusion that you can apply soft power and get what you want in an arena of war must be destroyed.
Khaled Abou Zahr
In that context, if someone can tell me how they can turn the negotiations to Ukraine's advantage with soft power, as per the wishful thinking of the BBC host, I am all ears. It is the situation on the ground that will dictate the outcome, just as it did in Afghanistan. There is no sugarcoating a loss. So, what is Europe going to do about it? It can pin the blame on Donald Trump as much as it wants, but the real question is whether Europe is willing to go to war to stand up to Vladimir Putin and save Ukraine? So, who will go to war? And for what outcome?
Europe does indeed need to 'wake up' and swiftly prepare for this 'new' reality, which has actually governed the world since the beginning of history. It might need to start by having a unified position on Russia and China. This is far from being the case today. As Younger stated, the 'free ride' on the US' back needs to end. Continuously putting the blame on Washington must stop too. The real enigma is can Europe do this without going to war in Ukraine?
It is precisely the mistake Europe has made — that of thinking soft power has any value without hard power — that led us to this situation. At the very least, the next step should be to invest more in defense. Europe has the capability to build the military forces it needs to be a superior force. It lacks the will to do so. But more than spending billions, as war has already started, the real deterrence would be to convince its adversaries that it has the will to fight. Both Russia and Ukraine have shown this. So has the US.
There needs to be strong action to make this buildup happen and to project the deterrence Europe needs and which can — with US support — change the reality. But let us be realistic: the US still has this deterrence, with Younger stating 'you underestimate America at your peril.' Europe needs to bring its real values back to the fore and show its resolve; then its allies and enemies will listen. Not before.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Arab News
10 hours ago
- Arab News
Fair climate finance requires debt reform
When delegates from around the world convened in Bonn, Germany, for the 62nd session of the UN Climate Change Subsidiary Bodies, the specter of sovereign debt loomed large. For African countries, in particular, debt is no longer a problem unfolding in parallel with escalating climate shocks and widening development deficits, but rather the key obstacle to effective crisis responses. Debt reform and climate finance are two sides of the same coin. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, African countries owe $655 billion in external debt, while debt-service payments have more than doubled since 2010, driven by rising interest rates and currency depreciation. This year, the continent's collective debt-service bill will amount to a whopping $79 billion. In 2023, 34 African countries spent more on debt service than on health or education, let alone disaster relief or green infrastructure. Comprehensive debt cancelation is a prerequisite to progress on sustainable development. But it is only the beginning. Shaped by colonial power dynamics, the global financial architecture is practically designed to entrench inequality. When issuing loans to developing economies, institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank often impose conditions that constrain these countries' fiscal space and hardwire austerity into domestic policy. Short-term relief thus comes with long-term shackles. Many believe that mobilizing private investment is the key to closing the climate finance gap. 'Derisking' climate finance and attracting private capital through tools such as green bonds and blended finance are among the G20's flagship priorities. The decision on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, made at COP29 in Baku last year, likewise emphasizes the importance of private sector participation. South Africa, which assumed the G20 presidency in December 2024, has echoed this approach. For example, at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in February, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called on the private sector, together with international financial institutions and development banks, to implement 'innovative financing and insurance mechanisms' aimed at scaling up funding for disaster prevention and post-disaster reconstruction. But the private sector has long struggled to engage effectively in climate negotiations or identify viable projects that serve climate, development and commercial objectives simultaneously. Since the infrastructure projects that are needed to strengthen climate resilience mature over a period of 20 to 30 years, countries need reliable access to long-term finance. But credit markets operate on three to five-year time horizons, meaning that borrowers often end up scrambling for more capital, which can be both unpredictable and expensive. According to the ONE Campaign, the average interest rate on bonds for African countries in 2021 was 5.78 percent, compared to 1.14 percent on loans from the World Bank. These countries will pay $56 billion in additional interest over the lifetime of loans contracted in 2017 to 2021, compared to what they would have paid if they had borrowed at World Bank rates. The much-touted 'blended finance' model does not solve this problem, because it often combines public and private funds in ways that leave countries exposed to credit market risk. Private finance is structurally biased against the Global South, owing partly to fundamental flaws in sovereign risk assessments. Mohamed Adow The real issue is that private finance is structurally biased against the Global South, owing partly to fundamental flaws in sovereign risk assessments. If the private sector is to help close the climate finance gap without trapping developing countries in cycles of repayment and dependency, we must first resolve the information asymmetries that enable credit rating agencies and institutional investors to define 'risk' in ways that penalize developing economies. Ramaphosa — who has voiced support for reforming global credit-rating systems — should help spearhead this process. At the same time, however, we must recognize the limits of private capital, particularly when it comes to financing for adaptation and loss and damage. There is no substitute for a major expansion of grants and public financing. The responsibility for tackling biases in the global financial system falls on the entire international community — not least the advanced economies that are now cutting their climate aid budgets. Nonetheless, African countries must take more responsibility for driving change. Africa has often failed to take a unified approach to global issues and maximize its collective bargaining power. Consider the Baku to Belem Roadmap — a joint initiative by the COP29 and COP30 presidencies to deliver at least $1.3 trillion in climate finance annually by 2035. Though the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and the COP30 presidency began regional consultations on the roadmap in February, inviting stakeholders to share their input, Africa has not submitted an aligned position or set of recommendations. Meanwhile, many African countries pursue bilateral debt deals in isolation, while others are entangled in opaque and protracted restructuring processes like the G20's Common Framework for Debt Treatments. Zambia's debt restructuring, for example, dragged on for more than three years. What is needed now is for African countries to build a consensus around a common agenda that links COP30 to the G20. Priorities must include comprehensive debt cancelation for climate-vulnerable countries; the reform of credit rating systems and capital cost structures that unfairly penalize African economies; and the greater use of instruments such as grants to finance climate action. A global taxation regime, which could use revenues to fund resilience in developing economies, should also be on the table. Such efforts should build on existing initiatives and proposals, such as the proposed UN Framework Convention on Sovereign Debt, which would offer a credible, cooperative and rights-based approach to debt reform. The Africa Climate Summit, convening in Addis Ababa this September, will serve as an important moment to cement progress and speak with a unified voice in advance of COP30. Along with South Africa, the African Union — now a permanent member of the G20 — should play a leading role in this process, steering global debates toward the creation of a financial system that reflects today's multipolar realities, not the colonial dynamics of the past. This is a matter of justice, not charity. And, with developing economies on the front line of the climate crisis, it could not be more urgent.
Leaders
11 hours ago
- Leaders
Israeli Ground Forces Storm Syria in Bold Weapons Raid
Israeli military forces executed targeted ground raids inside southern Syria, as troops seized significant weapon caches and questioned individuals suspected of arms trafficking, the military said in a statement on Sunday. This operation marks the latest Israeli cross-border incursion since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Details of the Mission The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed troops completed 'a mission involving on-site questioning of several suspects' near the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Israeli forces simultaneously entered four locations within the Hader area during the operation. Furthermore, soldiers successfully located numerous weapons trafficked by the suspects, the military detailed. Released military footage depicted uniformed Israeli troops operating at night, utilizing armored vehicles and moving on foot. Consequently, an Israeli army division remains actively deployed in the region to continue operations to prevent terrorist entrenchment in Syria, aiming specifically to protect Israeli civilians and Golan Heights residents. Recent Actions Israel significantly bolstered its presence on the Golan Heights late last year, following the Islamist-led offensive that ultimately toppled Syrian President Assad in December. Troops moved into the UN-patrolled buffer zone separating Israeli and Syrian forces since their 1973 war. The IDF previously launched strikes against Syrian government targets. In July, Israel bombed forces in Damascus and Sweida province, compelling a Syrian withdrawal from the south amid intense sectarian violence. Israel claimed it acted to defend the Druze community; however, some diplomats and analysts argue the true goal involved weakening the Syrian military and pushing the new government away from the border. Israel initiated hundreds of strikes on Syrian military sites after Assad's overthrow. The government stated its objective was preventing advanced weapons transfers to new authorities, whom Israel considers jihadists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu persistently demands the full demilitarization of southern Syria. Short link : Post Views: 16
Saudi Gazette
15 hours ago
- Saudi Gazette
Palestine Red Crescent says Israeli strike on Gaza HQ kills worker, injures three
KHAN YOUNIS, Gaza Strip — The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) accused Israeli forces on Sunday of striking its headquarters in southern Gaza, killing one worker and wounding three others. In a statement, the humanitarian group said the early morning attack on its Khan Younis facility sparked a fire in the building, which is 'well known' to the Israeli military and 'clearly marked with the protective red emblem.' It called the strike 'deliberate' and renewed its appeal for accountability and protection of humanitarian and medical staff. The PRCS identified the slain worker as Omar Isleem and said two other staff members were injured, along with a civilian who was attempting to put out the fire. Images shared by the group showed heavy structural damage, debris-filled offices and large bloodstains. When asked about the incident, the Israel Defense Forces told the BBC it had 'no knowledge about neither artillery nor any air strikes' targeting the facility. The attack comes as Gaza's humanitarian crisis deepens. UN figures indicate that at least 1,373 Palestinians have been killed since late May while trying to access food, most near Israeli and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution sites. Israel disputes the UN's figures and accuses Hamas of fomenting chaos at the aid centres, while denying that its forces intentionally target civilians. Egyptian state media reported Sunday that two fuel trucks were waiting to enter Gaza amid ongoing shortages that have crippled hospitals and aid operations. The Hamas-run health ministry says 175 people, including 93 children, have died from malnutrition. Israel launched its Gaza campaign after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. Since then, more than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza's health ministry. — BBC
