Market Focus Weekly: Trump, Tariffs and the Tumble of the US Dollar
From Washington's tariff deadlines to Singapore's stock market highs, this is your Friday must-listen for what's actually moving the region's markets and why it matters.
Why listen?
Tariffs are back on the table President Trump's July 9 deadline looms. Markets are bracing for a fresh wave of economic uncertainty.
The US dollar is down 10% And that's reshaping capital flows into Asia. Will it continue?
Fed rate cuts just got downgraded Markets expected 75 basis points. Now it's looking like 50. What changed?
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
Gold is quietly surging Inflows into SGD-denominated ETFs are up. Investors are hedging and watching.
Oil prices remain volatile Energy counters on the SGX are swinging. Here's where the action is.
Market Focus Weekly cuts through the noise so you can follow the signals. Catch Episode 1 now because in markets, timing is everything.
Questions or feedback? Reach us at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
---
Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg)
Produced and edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
---
Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on:
Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus
Amazon: bt.sg/mfam
Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap
Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp
YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt
Website: bt.sg/mktfocus
Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg
Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice.
Discover more BT podcast series:
BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks
BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt
BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts
BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod
BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlenson
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNA
8 minutes ago
- CNA
Asia shares sideswiped by US economic jitters, oil slips
SYDNEY :Asian share markets followed Wall Street lower on Monday as fears for the U.S. economy returned with a vengeance, spurring investors to price in an almost certain rate cut for September and undermining the dollar. Some early resilience in U.S. stock futures and a continued retreat in oil prices did help limit the losses, but the bleak message from the July payrolls report was hard to ignore. Not only had revisions meant payrolls were 290,000 below where investors had thought they would be, but the three-month average slowed to just 35,000 from 231,000 at the start of the year. "The report brings payroll growth closer in line with big data indicators of job gains and the broader growth dataset, both of which have slowed significantly in recent months," noted analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Taken together, the economic data confirm our view that the U.S. economy is growing at a below-potential pace." Neither did the reaction of President Donald Trump instil confidence, as the firing of the head of Labor Statistics threatened to undermine confidence in U.S. economic data. Likewise, news that Trump would get to fill a governorship position at the Federal Reserve early added to worries about the politicisation of interest rate policy. Analysts assume the appointee will be loyal to Trump alone, though the president did grudgingly concede that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would likely see out his term. "It opens the prospect of broader support on the Fed Board for lower rates sooner rather than later," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at NAB. "Fed credibility, and the veracity of the statistics on which they base their policy decisions, are both now under the spotlight." Markets moved quickly to price in a lot more easing with the probability of a September rate cut swinging to 90 per cent, from 40 per cent before the jobs report. Futures extended the rally on Monday to imply 65 basis points of easing by year-end, compared to 33 basis points pre-data. Markets have essentially already eased for the Fed with two-year Treasury yields down another 4 basis points at 3.661 per cent. They tumbled almost 25 basis points on Friday in the biggest one-day drop since August last year. DOLLAR DENTED The prospect of lower borrowing costs offered some support for equities and S&P 500 futures inched up 0.1 per cent, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.2 per cent. Asian share markets, however, were still catching up with Friday's retreat and the Nikkei fell 2.1 per cent, while South Korea dipped 0.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan broke the mould and firmed 0.3 per cent. Wall Street has also taken comfort in an upbeat results season. Around two-thirds of the S&P 500 have reported and 63 per cent have beaten forecasts. Earnings growth is estimated at 9.8 per cent, up from 5.8 per cent at the start of July. Companies reporting this week include Disney, McDonald's, Caterpillar and some of the large pharmaceutical groups. The dismal U.S. jobs data did put a dent in the dollar's crown of exceptionalism, snuffing out what had been a promising rally for the currency. The dollar dipped 0.1 per cent to 147.24 yen, having shed an eye-watering 2.3 per cent on Friday, while the euro stood at $1.1585 after bouncing 1.5 per cent on Friday. The dollar index was pinned at 98.659, having been toppled from last week's top of 100.250. Sterling was more restrained at $1.3287 as markets are 87 per cent priced for the Bank of England to cut rates by a quarter point at a meeting on Thursday. The BoE board itself is expected to remain split on easing, while markets still favour two further cuts by the middle of next year. In commodity markets, gold was flat at $3,361 an ounce, having climbed more than 2 per cent on Friday. Oil prices extended their latest slide as OPEC+ agreed to another large rise in output for September, which completely reverses last year's cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day.
Business Times
39 minutes ago
- Business Times
India hasn't stopped Russian oil purchases after Trump rebuke
[DELHI] India has not given the country's oil refiners instructions to stop buying Russian oil, according to sources familiar, days after US President Donald Trump blasted New Delhi for the energy purchases. No decision has been taken as yet on stopping imports from Russia, the sources said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Both state-run and private refiners are allowed to buy from their preferred sources, and crude purchases remain a commercial decision made by them, several of the sources said. Trump rebuked India on Wednesday (Jul 30) for continuing to buy most of its military equipment and energy from Russia. The US leader imposed a surprise 25 per cent tariff on India and threatened an additional penalty for its close ties with Moscow. Two days later, Trump told reporters he 'heard' India would no longer be buying oil from Russia, calling it 'a good step'. India has maintained that its energy purchases are driven by market forces and price. Last week, refiners were told to come up with plans for buying non-Russian crude, sources familiar said to Bloomberg. The government asked state-owned processors to prepare an outline of where alternate barrels can be sourced and at what volume if Russian flows get stopped, they said. One of the sources said the instruction amounted to scenario planning in case Russian crude were to become unavailable. The New York Times reported on Saturday that India will keep buying Russian crude despite a threat of penalties from Trump, citing two senior Indian officials it did not identify. An oil ministry spokesperson did not reply to messages from Bloomberg seeking comment outside of regular business hours. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up India's refiners have been singled out by the European Union and the US for supporting Moscow during its war in Ukraine with the oil purchases. It has become the world's biggest buyer of Russian seaborne exports of crude, soaking up discounted barrels and ramping up its purchases from almost zero to about one-third of its imports. Reducing or stopping Russian oil purchases would force India to source oil once again from Gulf nations, which costs a premium, and New Delhi is not keen on adding to its import bill, one of the sources said. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintains close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, having visited the country in October. Putin is scheduled to visit India later this year. State-owned Indian Oil bought at least five million barrels of US crude, on top of two million barrels of supplies from Abu Dhabi, traders told Bloomberg last week. The purchases were both large and for relatively immediate delivery by the company's usual standards. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
2 hours ago
- Business Times
US trade advisor says Trump tariff rates unlikely to change
[WASHINGTON] New US tariff rates are 'pretty much set' with little immediate room for negotiation, Donald Trump's trade advisor said in remarks aired on Sunday, also defending the president's politically driven levies against Brazil. Trump, who has wielded tariffs as a tool of American economic might, has set tariff rates for dozens of economies including the European Union at between 10 and 41 per cent come Aug 7, his new hard deadline for the duties. In a pre-taped interview broadcast Sunday on CBS's Face the Nation, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said 'the coming days' are not likely to see changes in the tariff rates. 'A lot of these are set rates pursuant to deals. Some of these deals are announced, some are not, others depend on the level of the trade deficit or surplus we may have with the country,' Greer said. 'These tariff rates are pretty much set.' Undoubtedly some trade ministers 'want to talk more and see how they can work in a different way with the United States,' he added. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up But 'we're seeing truly the contours of the president's tariff plan right now with these rates.' Last Thursday, the former real estate developer announced hiked tariff rates on dozens of US trade partners. They will kick in on Aug 7 instead of Aug 1, which had previously been touted as a hard deadline. Among the countries facing steep new levies is Brazil. South America's largest economy is being hit with 50 per cent tariffs on exports to the United States - albeit with significant exemptions for key products such as aircraft and orange juice. Trump has openly admitted he is punishing Brazil for prosecuting his political ally Jair Bolsonaro, the ex-president accused of plotting a coup in a bid to cling to power. The US president has described the case as a 'witch hunt.' Greer said it was not unusual for Trump to use tariff tools for geopolitical purposes. 'The president has seen in Brazil, like he's seen in other countries, a misuse of law, a misuse of democracy,' Greer told CBS. 'It is normal to use these tools for geopolitical issues.' Trump was 'elected to assess the foreign affairs situation... and take appropriate action,' he added. Meanwhile White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said that while talks are expected to continue over the next week with some US trade partners, he concurred with Greer's tariffs assessment in that the bulk of the rates 'are more or less locked in.' Asked by the host of NBC's Sunday talk show Meet the Press with Kristen Welker if Trump could change tariff rates should financial markets react negatively, Hassett said: 'I would rule it out, because these are the final deals.' Legal challenges have been filed against some of Trump's tariffs arguing he overstepped his authority. An appeals court panel on Thursday appeared skeptical of the government's arguments, though the case may be ultimately decided at the Supreme Court. AFP
