Unemployment Lower Than Forecast
The latest labour market data showing lower than forecast unemployment has been noted by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
Stats NZ data released today shows the unemployment rate for the June quarter was 5.2 per cent, below the Treasury forecast of 5.4 per cent.
'Rising unemployment is tough on every New Zealander impacted and is the unfortunate after-effect of a historic period of out-of-control inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and stagnant growth.
'Our Government has worked hard to restore responsible economic management but Treasury, in its pre-election fiscal update, made clear that unemployment would peak in the middle of this year. It's of note, however, that today's data confirms 8000 fewer unemployed people than Treasury forecast would be the case in its pre-election update.
'Our Government remains focused on rebuilding the economy to deliver more and better paying jobs. A recovery is now underway with inflation back under control, interest rates falling and healthy rates of growth in the first three months of the year.
'Despite global volatility and factors outside our control, we remain confident in New Zealand's economic prospects and are working hard to create the conditions for future job creation with $6 billion of government-funded construction work kicking off before Christmas, fast-track projects beginning, exports growing and the Investment Boost tax policy giving businesses a reason to invest and grow.
'We also note that average hourly earnings rose 4.5 per cent in the past year driven by wages in the private sector. This is well ahead of inflation at 2.7 per cent.'
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Or is it a case of those who would can't, and those who could don't? ------------- Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. Keith Rankin Political Economist, Scoop Columnist Keith Rankin taught economics at Unitec in Mt Albert since 1999. An economic historian by training, his research has included an analysis of labour supply in the Great Depression of the 1930s, and has included estimates of New Zealand's GNP going back to the 1850s. Keith believes that many of the economic issues that beguile us cannot be understood by relying on the orthodox interpretations of our social science disciplines. Keith favours a critical approach that emphasises new perspectives rather than simply opposing those practices and policies that we don't like. Keith retired in 2020 and lives with his family in Glen Eden, Auckland.
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