
The ‘lock-in effect' is making it harder to buy a home—even if mortgage rates fall
That's according to a new Bankrate survey, which shows 54% of U.S. homeowners wouldn't feel comfortable selling at any mortgage rate in 2025, up 12 percentage points from last year. A similar share of homeowners, 51%, say they wouldn't feel comfortable buying a new home, either.
The reluctance helps explain why home sales remain historically low, with spring volume tracking at levels last seen during the 2009 housing crash, according to seasonally adjusted data from the National Association of Realtors.
The survey results point to a well-entrenched "lock-in effect," where homeowners are unwilling to give up the historically low mortgage rates they secured during the pandemic and take on significantly higher ones today, says Jeff Ostrowski, real estate analyst at Bankrate.
"Americans who bought homes at pre-2021 prices and pre-2022 mortgage rates face sticker shock when they look at today's housing market," he tells CNBC Make It. "Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are also much higher. That combination is creating a reluctance to do anything."
Higher homeownership costs are also making it harder for buyers, especially first-time buyers who lack the built-up equity that current homeowners can use to afford today's high prices. First-time buyers made up just 24% of the market in 2024, the lowest share on record, according to NAR.
Mortgage rates have more than doubled compared with four years ago, with 30-year fixed-rate loans hovering near 6.5% so far in 2025, according to Freddie Mac data.
That has become a major barrier to getting more homes on the market. Only 3% of all homeowners say they would feel comfortable selling a home this year if mortgage rates are 6% or higher, according to the Bankrate survey.
Excluding those who wouldn't buy at any rate, 37% of homeowners say mortgage rates would need to fall below 5% for them to feel comfortable buying. Just 1% say they'd be comfortable buying at 6% or higher, according to Bankrate.
The hesitation is pronounced among those with the lowest existing mortgage rates. Forty-one percent of homeowners paying less than 3% say they wouldn't consider buying again at any rate, according to Bankrate. Staying put allows them to keep housing costs — typically the largest household expense — fixed at an unusually low level.
Refinancing isn't any more appealing. Just 1% of homeowners say they'd refinance at rates 6% or higher, while more than half say they wouldn't refinance under any conditions, according to Bankrate.
"Most American homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, and some are below 3%," says Ostrowski. "Now that rates are flirting with 7%, few are eager to trade a 3% rate for a much higher one."
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The Hill
20 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump's trip to Scotland: What to know
President Trump departed Friday for a five-day stay in Scotland, where he is expected to meet with British and Scottish officials and visit his properties there. The White House has described the trip as a 'working visit,' pointing to planned discussions with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer about a trade agreement between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. But Trump will visit his properties at Turnberry and Aberdeen, giving a publicity boost to his personal golf courses and his family's brand while overseas. Here's what to know about Trump's visit. Talking trade with the UK Trump told reporters while leaving for Scotland that he would be meeting with United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday evening, expecting that the two will work through more aspects of the trade deal they struck in May. 'We're meeting with the prime minister tonight. We're going to be talking about the trade deal that we made and maybe even approve it,' Trump said. He added, 'we want to talk about certain aspects, which is going to be good for both countries. More fine-tuning. Also, we're going to do a little celebrating together, because, you know, we got along very well. U.K.'s been trying to make a deal with us for like, 12 years, and haven't been able to do it. We got it done, and he's doing a very good job, this prime minister. Good guy.' Last month, Trump and Starmer detailed the trade agreement together while at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada after they first announced it in May. The deal includes 'billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially for beef, ethanol, and certain other American agricultural exports,' according to the order, and includes a stipulation that the U.S. will create an annual quota of 100,000 cars for U.K. imports at a 10 percent tariff rate. It also stipulates that the U.K. remains committed to 'working to meet American requirements on the security of the supply chains of steel and aluminum products,' which would prompt the U.S. to 'promptly construct a quota at most-favored-nation rates for steel and aluminum articles.' The U.K. agreement was the first trade deal announced since Trump imposed tariffs on trading partners, although it was in the works before then. This week, Trump has also announced deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines and the administration has continued talks with the European Union. In addition to meeting with Starmer, Trump is slated to meet with First Minister of Scotland John Swinney during his visit. 'We have a lot of things in Scotland,' Trump said. 'I have a lot of love, my mother was born in Scotland. And he's a good man.' Spotlight on Trump's properties and possible protests While the White House has billed Trump's trip as a working visit to Scotland, critics have highlighted how the president is once again mingling politics with his business interests. Trump owns two golf courses in Scotland— one in Aberdeen that opened in 2012, and one at Turnberry that opened in 2014. He is slated to celebrate the opening of a third on the trip. The new 18-hold course is outside of Aberdeen and will be named after his mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, who was born in Scotland. Ethics watchdogs and Democrats have accused Trump of blatantly profiting off of the presidency, pointing to the launch of a cryptocurrency, Trump-branded sneakers and Bibles and a line of fragrances, among other ventures. Visits to Trump properties tend to generate scrutiny, as the government pays for Secret Service and other White House staff to stay there as well. Trump is also expected to be greeted with protests during his stay in Scotland. A 'Stop Trump' coalition is organizing demonstrations in Aberdeen on Saturday, and in Edinburgh outside the U.S. consulate. Trump experienced protests during his last presidential visit to his Turnberry golf course in 2018, when groups gathered outside the property to boo the president and demonstrators flew a paraglider around the area with a message criticizing him. Trump left Washington amid GOP turmoil over Epstein Trump headed out of Washington while calls for the release of more materials related to deceased financier Jeffrey Epstein have grown. Trump said he hasn't thought about pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell on Friday morning, as she was set to meet for a second day with Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche at the Tallahassee prison where she's serving her sentence. He also told reporters they should be focused on other Epstein associates and other topics, and suggested that he has a list of people who were associated with Epstein, other than him, that he could give to the media. 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Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Centene's (NYSE:CNC) Q2 Sales Beat Estimates But Stock Drops 12.2%
Health coverage company Centene (NYSE:CNC) reported Q2 CY2025 results topping the market's revenue expectations , with sales up 22.4% year on year to $48.74 billion. Its non-GAAP loss of $0.16 per share was significantly below analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy Centene? Find out in our full research report. Centene (CNC) Q2 CY2025 Highlights: Lower payments from the government, higher medical costs, more expensive care for Medicaid members Revenue: $48.74 billion vs analyst estimates of $43.67 billion (22.4% year-on-year growth, 11.6% beat) Adjusted EPS: -$0.16 vs analyst estimates of $0.23 (significant miss) Adjusted EBITDA: -$282 million vs analyst estimates of $91.23 million (-0.6% margin, significant miss) Operating Margin: -0.9%, down from 3.1% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow Margin: 3.2%, down from 5% in the same quarter last year Customers: 28 million, up from 27.94 million in the previous quarter Market Capitalization: $13.32 billion "We are disappointed by our second quarter results, but we have a clear understanding of the trends that have impacted our performance, and are working with urgency and focus to restore our earnings trajectory," said Chief Executive Officer of Centene, Sarah M. London. Company Overview Serving nearly 1 in 15 Americans through its government healthcare programs, Centene (NYSE:CNC) is a healthcare company that manages government-sponsored health insurance programs like Medicaid and Medicare for low-income and complex-needs populations. Revenue Growth Examining a company's long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Luckily, Centene's sales grew at a solid 14.2% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. Its growth beat the average healthcare company and shows its offerings resonate with customers, a helpful starting point for our analysis. Long-term growth is the most important, but within healthcare, a half-decade historical view may miss new innovations or demand cycles. Centene's annualized revenue growth of 9.8% over the last two years is below its five-year trend, but we still think the results were respectable. Centene also reports its number of customers, which reached 28 million in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Centene's customer base averaged 1.2% year-on-year growth. Because this number is lower than its revenue growth, we can see the average customer spent more money each year on the company's products and services. This quarter, Centene reported robust year-on-year revenue growth of 22.4%, and its $48.74 billion of revenue topped Wall Street estimates by 11.6%. Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to remain flat over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health. Today's young investors likely haven't read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next. Operating Margin Centene's operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has generally stayed the same, averaging 1.5% over the last five years. This profitability was lousy for a healthcare business and caused by its suboptimal cost structure. Analyzing the trend in its profitability, Centene's operating margin might fluctuated slightly but has generally stayed the same over the last five years. This raises questions about the company's expense base because its revenue growth should have given it leverage on its fixed costs, resulting in better economies of scale and profitability. This quarter, Centene's breakeven margin was down 4 percentage points year on year. This contraction shows it was less efficient because its expenses grew faster than its revenue. Earnings Per Share Revenue trends explain a company's historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions. Centene's flat EPS over the last five years was below its 14.2% annualized revenue growth. However, its operating margin didn't change during this time, telling us that non-fundamental factors such as interest and taxes affected its ultimate earnings. In Q2, Centene reported EPS at negative $0.16, down from $2.42 in the same quarter last year. This print missed analysts' estimates. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Centene's full-year EPS of $5.16 to shrink by 24.8%. Key Takeaways from Centene's Q2 Results We liked that Centene beat analysts' revenue expectations this quarter. On the other hand, EPS missed significantly due to lower payments from the government, higher medical costs, more expensive care for Medicaid members. Management called the results "disappointing" and are addressing the issues in the business. Shares traded down 12.2% to $23.51 immediately following the results. Is Centene an attractive investment opportunity at the current price? If you're making that decision, you should consider the bigger picture of valuation, business qualities, as well as the latest earnings. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it's free. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
The 1 Money Mistake That Most People Regret
Everyone makes mistakes when it comes to their finances. So if you've ever kicked yourself for making one, you're not alone. Read Next: Learn More: Let's break down the top money mistake many people regret (as well as a few others) — and what you can do about it now. Failing To Invest According to a recent survey from Clarify Capital, 43% of Americans say their biggest financial regret is not investing earlier. Whether it was fear, confusion or simply not knowing where to start, many of us are wishing we could go back in time and give our younger selves a nudge. It's easy to put off investing — especially when you're juggling rent and student loans, or are just trying to build a basic emergency fund. For many, investing feels like something you do after you've 'made it.' But that mindset is exactly what leads to the biggest regret: not starting sooner. The truth is, you don't need a ton of money to begin. Even small, consistent contributions have the power to grow over time thanks to compound interest. The earlier you start, the more time your money has to do the heavy lifting for you. Check Out: Other Money Mistakes People Regret The survey also highlighted some other common money mistakes that people end up regretting. Overspending The survey found that 38% of people said overspending was their biggest financial regret. Let's be real — swiping the card feels way easier than checking the budget. Whether it's little impulse buys that add up or the occasional 'YOLO' splurge that turns into a habit, overspending is one of those financial slip-ups that sneaks up on you. It's not always about luxury, either. Sometimes we overspend just trying to 'keep up,' especially in a world where everyone's highlight reel is on display. But chasing a lifestyle before you can actually afford it can leave you stuck in a cycle of debt, stress and wondering where your paycheck went. Having Too Much Debt Having too much debt was the biggest financial regret of 29% of respondents. Debt can feel like a weight that's always there, lurking in the background of every paycheck, every financial decision, every 'maybe next month.' And while not all debt is bad, too much of it — especially high-interest credit card debt — can quickly spiral into regret territory. For many, debt starts small: a little here, a little there, often with the best intentions. But it adds up fast. Before you know it, you're not just paying for the thing you bought. You're paying interest on it month after month, which means less money going toward your future. Not Having Enough Savings The survey found that 29% of respondents said not having enough savings was their biggest financial regret. If you've ever had a surprise expense — like a medical bill, a car repair or a last-minute flight — knock the wind out of you, you know the gut-punch of not having enough saved. And you're not alone. Many people regret not building a cushion sooner, especially when life throws one of its signature curveballs. Savings isn't just about being 'good with money.' It's about peace of mind. It's the quiet confidence of knowing you can handle the unexpected without spiraling into stress or debt. But when you're living paycheck to paycheck, saving can feel like a luxury, not a priority. Advice From Experts If you've found yourself having one of these top financial regrets, what can you do about it? Luckily, there are plenty of experts out there who can offer some advice. 'Our Certified Financial Counselors often hear the biggest regret among our members is not starting sooner,' said Casey Brueske, community education development specialist at PenAir Credit Union. But he said that isn't limited to just investing. Members wish they had started sooner with saving, budgeting and learning healthy financial habits. 'It is easy to delay these things because life gets busy and can feel overwhelming. But time is truly the most valuable asset when it comes to building wealth,' he said. 'One of the core beliefs that guides everything I do is simple: the market is efficient,' said Jason Lee, chief of enterprise at Chime. Over time, he said true long-term value finds its way to the surface — whether you're talking about business, life or especially your personal finances. So even if you regret not investing sooner, Lee noted that trying to beat the market — especially over the long haul — is nearly impossible. The odds are stacked against you. Instead, the right move is to play the long game: make thoughtful investments today (even if small), avoid unnecessary risks, and let time and compounding do their work. 'That's how real, lasting progress happens. It's not glamorous, but it's the truth — and it works,' he said. More From GOBankingRates How Much Money Is Needed To Be Considered Middle Class in Your State? This article originally appeared on The 1 Money Mistake That Most People Regret Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data