
The ‘lock-in effect' is making it harder to buy a home—even if mortgage rates fall
That's according to a new Bankrate survey, which shows 54% of U.S. homeowners wouldn't feel comfortable selling at any mortgage rate in 2025, up 12 percentage points from last year. A similar share of homeowners, 51%, say they wouldn't feel comfortable buying a new home, either.
The reluctance helps explain why home sales remain historically low, with spring volume tracking at levels last seen during the 2009 housing crash, according to seasonally adjusted data from the National Association of Realtors.
The survey results point to a well-entrenched "lock-in effect," where homeowners are unwilling to give up the historically low mortgage rates they secured during the pandemic and take on significantly higher ones today, says Jeff Ostrowski, real estate analyst at Bankrate.
"Americans who bought homes at pre-2021 prices and pre-2022 mortgage rates face sticker shock when they look at today's housing market," he tells CNBC Make It. "Home prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are also much higher. That combination is creating a reluctance to do anything."
Higher homeownership costs are also making it harder for buyers, especially first-time buyers who lack the built-up equity that current homeowners can use to afford today's high prices. First-time buyers made up just 24% of the market in 2024, the lowest share on record, according to NAR.
Mortgage rates have more than doubled compared with four years ago, with 30-year fixed-rate loans hovering near 6.5% so far in 2025, according to Freddie Mac data.
That has become a major barrier to getting more homes on the market. Only 3% of all homeowners say they would feel comfortable selling a home this year if mortgage rates are 6% or higher, according to the Bankrate survey.
Excluding those who wouldn't buy at any rate, 37% of homeowners say mortgage rates would need to fall below 5% for them to feel comfortable buying. Just 1% say they'd be comfortable buying at 6% or higher, according to Bankrate.
The hesitation is pronounced among those with the lowest existing mortgage rates. Forty-one percent of homeowners paying less than 3% say they wouldn't consider buying again at any rate, according to Bankrate. Staying put allows them to keep housing costs — typically the largest household expense — fixed at an unusually low level.
Refinancing isn't any more appealing. Just 1% of homeowners say they'd refinance at rates 6% or higher, while more than half say they wouldn't refinance under any conditions, according to Bankrate.
"Most American homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, and some are below 3%," says Ostrowski. "Now that rates are flirting with 7%, few are eager to trade a 3% rate for a much higher one."
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Hamilton Spectator
19 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Ford and Smith divided over Trump response at premiers' summit
Conservative premiers Doug Ford of Ontario and Danielle Smith of Alberta are at odds over how Canada should respond to US tariffs — especially when it comes to energy exports. At a premiers' summit in Huntsville on Tuesday, Ford refused to rule out an electricity export tax, while Smith firmly said no. 'We don't want to see export taxes on energy or export restrictions. It would have a devastating impact on Alberta and on Canada,' Smith said at a joint press conference. 'The Americans have a bigger hammer if they cut off [the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline]. Not only does that harm Ontario, it also harms Quebec.' Ford took a different view. 'Everything's on the table,' he said. 'We'll see how this deal goes and we'll see what he [Trump] has to say on August 1 .' President Donald Trump has said he will impose tariffs of up to 50 per cent on dozens of countries, including Canada, starting Aug. 1. Prime Minister Mark Carney downplayed the deadline , saying Canada's focus is on getting the best deal possible, no matter how long it takes. Ford, however, urged an aggressive response. 'We need to make sure we match tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar, and hit them back as hard as we possibly can,' Ford said. 'There's one thing President Trump understands — it's strength. He doesn't understand or appreciate weakness. He will roll over us like a cement roller if we show an ounce of weakness. We need to send a strong message.' Ford and Smith, along with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Tuesday to build pipelines, rail lines and trade infrastructure aimed at reducing Canada's reliance on US markets. The premiers also called for repealing nine federal regulations they see as barriers to resource development, including Bill C-69, the tanker ban, the oil and gas emissions cap, federal carbon pricing and clean electricity rules. 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The exports were worth $125 billion. Ontario, meanwhile, sends electricity to US states such as Michigan and New York, powering more than 1.5 million American homes and businesses. US governors have warned that new energy taxes could raise costs and damage cross-border energy ties. Fred Lazar, an economics professor at York University's Schulich School of Business, says Ford's tax idea is politically risky and argues this is a federal matter — not one provinces should try to handle alone. 'This is really a dispute between Canada and the US. The provinces are just bystanders,' Lazar said. 'Politically, they may have their own incentives, but practically, there's nothing they can do that would compel the US to change its policies. All it would do is make life harder for Ottawa.' Lazar believes the best move is for provinces to avoid taking action on their own and let Ottawa lead the negotiations. 'They're better off talking tough, doing nothing and letting Carney work it out.' Sheldon Williamson, a professor at Ontario Tech University, said the Ford–Smith split weakens Canada's bargaining power. 'While both leaders want to push back against US tariffs, diverging approaches — especially on energy exports — undermine any unified Canadian stance,' he said. 'Without cohesion, it becomes harder to exert meaningful pressure on Washington or to present a credible domestic front to Ottawa.' For Ontario, the stakes are high. Its auto sector is deeply integrated with the US supply chain. 'A broad-based tariff regime could be economically devastating,' Williamson said. He warned that although an electricity export tax may seem like an easy lever, 'it could backfire by raising prices for US consumers, inviting retaliation and damaging Ontario's own cross-border energy ties.' Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. 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Associated Press
22 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Golf Enters a New Era: Artificial Intelligence Sparks Unprecedented Investment
Venture capital investment in AI companies surged to over $100 billion in 2024, with golf artificial intelligence platforms emerging as a specialized investment opportunity within the broader sports technology ecosystem that's experiencing unprecedented growth in both participation and technological adoption. The intersection of artificial intelligence funding records and golf industry expansion creates compelling investment dynamics that institutional investors are increasingly recognizing. Global venture capital funding for AI companies exceeded $100 billion in 2024, representing an 80% increase from $55.6 billion in 2023, with nearly 33% of all global venture funding directed to AI companies, making artificial intelligence the leading sector for investment capital. Golf industry fundamentals support this investment thesis with participation reaching record levels across multiple demographics. A record 47.2 million Americans played golf in some form during 2024, representing a 5% increase from the prior year and 38% higher than pre-pandemic levels, while 28.0 million people played on-course golf, the highest participation since 2008. The funding environment particularly favors specialized AI applications that can demonstrate measurable operational improvements. In 2024, the proportion of survey respondents reporting AI use by their organizations jumped to 78% from 55% in 2023, indicating accelerating enterprise adoption that creates receptive markets for golf AI platforms addressing facility management and customer experience optimization. The convergence of record AI investment activity with historic golf participation creates unique opportunities for golf AI platforms like Golf participation demographics support premium AI technology adoption Golf industry participation trends demonstrate sustained growth across demographics that typically drive technology adoption and premium spending. More than 3.35 million golfers maintained a Handicap Index in 2024, up over 6% year-over-year and up nearly 30% since 2020, according to USGA data analyzing over 77 million scores posted through the World Handicap System. Demographic shifts particularly favor technology-forward segments that represent ideal customers for golf AI applications. 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The sport's operational complexity creates multiple value creation opportunities, from course maintenance optimization and tee time scheduling to personalized instruction and equipment recommendations that address real customer pain points while generating recurring revenue streams. comprehensive approach demonstrates how golf artificial intelligence can address multiple operational challenges simultaneously. Golf facilities manage sophisticated operations spanning maintenance scheduling, customer experience optimization, revenue management, and staff coordination that benefit from AI-powered automation and analytics capabilities. 'Our mission at is to make golf intelligence, simple and accessible to every fan,' Mayhew stated when launching artificial intelligence-powered golf podcast. The data-rich golf environment provides competitive advantages for AI platforms that can effectively process comprehensive information streams. Every golf interaction generates quantifiable performance metrics, course condition data, weather patterns, and customer behavior information that artificial intelligence golf systems can transform into actionable insights for both facilities and individual players. Investment outlook for golf AI technology platforms The investment case for golf AI platforms strengthens when considering sustained industry fundamentals. Rounds continue to trend more than 10% ahead of the five-year, pre-pandemic average from 2015-19, indicating durable demand patterns that support technology investment and adoption across golf facilities seeking competitive advantages. Companies like that successfully integrate comprehensive artificial intelligence capabilities may benefit from both macro AI investment trends and golf-specific growth drivers including demographic expansion, operational challenges, and technology adoption patterns that create multiple revenue streams and customer acquisition opportunities. For institutional investors evaluating AI investment opportunities, golf artificial intelligence represents a specialized application with proven market demand, expanding customer demographics, operational complexity that benefits from automation, and established revenue models that distinguish it from experimental AI applications with unclear value propositions. Early-stage investors in established golf AI platforms such as may capture value from the intersection of record AI funding availability, historic golf participation levels, and industry operational needs that create sustainable competitive advantages for comprehensive artificial intelligence golf solutions. Media Contact Company Name: Golf Contact Person: James Smith Email: Send Email City: Sydney State: NSW 2000 Country: Australia Website: Press Release Distributed by To view the original version on ABNewswire visit: Golf Enters a New Era: Artificial Intelligence Sparks Unprecedented Investment


Bloomberg
38 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Coke's New Cane-Sweetened Soda Risks Upending US Sugar Supplies
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