A Region of Opportunity? US Policy and the Future of Central Asia

The Diplomat

02-07-2025

Central Asia is no longer perceived solely as an object of great power rivalry; on the contrary, the region is emerging as an important and self-sufficient actor, putting forward its own initiatives and playing a constructive role in promoting stability, security, and sustainable development.
Regional cooperation in Central Asia is becoming a key driver of sustainable development, stability, and economic growth. In recent years a new regional reality has taken shape, influenced not from the outside, but emerging from within the region itself. This new reality reflects the shared aspiration of Central Asian countries to deepen collaboration, make joint decisions, and advance common interests. Through coordinated efforts, the states of the region have begun to address issues that for decades remained sources of tension. This progress has been made possible thanks to growing trust and the strengthening of both bilateral and multilateral platforms for dialogue.
The Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia play a particularly important role. The format, which began with a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan in 2018, has proven its relevance in practice, offering a consistent platform for discussing prospects for cooperation, aligning national positions, and jointly developing solutions that serve the long-term interests of Central Asia. Of particular importance is the search for balanced foreign policy strategies that reflect the multi-vector nature of Central Asian states' interests.
The countries of Central Asia continue to demonstrate a commitment to balanced and pragmatic foreign policy approaches based on mutual respect, diversification of partnerships, and the pursuit of greater regional resilience. In a shifting global environment, they are consolidating internally, deepening multilateral cooperation formats, and showing increased interest in constructive engagement with leading international actors. This outlook enables regional states to strengthen their own agency while contributing to a more stable and predictable international order.
It is within this context, wherein Central Asia is exhibiting greater agency and a shift toward stronger regional cooperation, that the United States seeks to build a stable partnership architecture with the region, focused on supporting sovereignty, sustainable growth, and both political and economic reform.
Nevertheless, in recent years, Central Asia has rarely occupied a prominent place on the U.S. foreign policy agenda.
It is therefore noteworthy that in January 2025, Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) raised the issue of updating U.S. policy toward the region during Marco Rubio's secretary of state confirmation hearings. Specifically, Daines emphasized the importance of repealing the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which continues to formally restrict the establishment of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) between the United States and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan (Kyrgyzstan was permanently exempted in 2002). Rubio agreed with the proposal, characterizing the provision as an 'absurd relic of the past.'
The potential repeal of this amendment could serve as both a symbolic and practical step for the new U.S. administration, opening the door to expanded cooperation in areas beyond traditional trade, from infrastructure projects and strategic rare earth supply chains to joint efforts in the field of security. Such a move would not only strengthen the U.S. position in the region but also enable Washington to engage more effectively in balancing the interests of Russia, China, and other external actors. It remains, however, under the purview of Congress. In 2023, U.S. Senators Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) introduced a bill to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. It never made it out of committee. Other bills to the same effect over the years have stalled without serious consideration.
One of the most high-profile developments since the outset of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term was the large-scale increase in U.S. import tariffs in an early April executive order, which labeled the increased tariffs as 'reciprocal.' Using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a justification, Trump argued that the state of global trade imbalances with the U.S. constituted an emergency. For some countries, the tariff rate was elevated as high as 50 percent. The rate for Kazakhstan was set at 27 percent, while for the rest of the region's countries, including Uzbekistan, a base 10 percent was applied. Soon after, Trump paused the higher rates, enforcing a 10 percent universal tariff on all trading partners while the higher rates were paused for 90 days – a period that ends next week.
Another growing concern is the issue of entry restrictions on foreign nationals implemented as part of U.S. migration and visa policy. In a recent proclamation, the Trump administration introduced full and partial bans on the issuance of visas for a number of countries, including Turkmenistan. A subsequent internal State Department memo leaked to the media included Kyrgyzstan among a list of more than 30 countries that could be targeted with future entry bans.
A growing question emerges: to what extent might domestic decisions by the new U.S. administration, including a possible expansion of import tariffs on goods from various countries, stricter visa policies, and broader trade and technology restrictions affect the dynamics of engagement with Central Asia?
In light of these turbulent dynamics, the countries of Central Asia are demonstrating increasing flexibility. In response to potential protectionist measures from the United States, the region has intensified its efforts to diversify foreign economic relations and strengthen partnerships with leading global actors. At the same time, homegrown initiatives are gaining momentum in areas such as sustainable transport, the digital economy, renewable energy, and regional banking cooperation.
Second, cooperation in the multilateral 'Central Asia Plus' format is gaining momentum, incorporating dialogue platforms with key external partners including the United States and China. These frameworks serve not only as tools for diplomatic coordination but also as important channels for technological, educational, and infrastructure cooperation. Such flexible partnership mechanisms enable the countries of Central Asia to enhance their agency, develop coordinated regional positions, and build sustainable connections beyond traditional spheres of influence. For the United States, participation in these formats remains a vital component of strategic dialogue, particularly in areas where American expertise and resources can have long-term impact, such as climate resilience, water resource management, and digital transformation.
Third, according to assessments by Moody's, U.S. tariff policy may have indirect effects on the economies of Central Asian countries, particularly in the event of a slowdown in global economic growth. A decline in demand from the region's key trading partners such as China, Russia, and the European Union could impact export-oriented sectors, including the textile and mining industries. Heightened competition and fluctuations in commodity prices pose additional challenges for producers, as well as for the financial sector that supports these industries. In Uzbekistan, for example, where textiles constitute a significant share of total exports, potential revenue losses could lead to a revision of lending terms and a broader need to adapt to new market conditions.
In addition, the countries of Central Asia are placing strong emphasis on the development of trade and economic partnerships, leveraging their substantial natural resource base, demographic potential, and favorable macroeconomic dynamics. The region is home to approximately 20 percent of the world's uranium reserves, 17 percent of oil, 7 percent of natural gas, as well as significant deposits of rare earth elements. Central Asia also possesses major potential in hydropower and solar energy, positioning it as a strategic player in the global energy transition.
At the same time, the region is experiencing a demographic rise, forming a sizeable labor pool. The population has reached 80 million and, according to U.N. projections, is expected to surpass 100 million by 2050. Central Asia is also one of the youngest regions in the world, with an average age of just 28.7 years. Over the past decade, the region's economy has demonstrated stable growth, averaging 6.2 percent annually — more than double the global average of 2.6 percent. Since 2016, the combined regional GDP has grown by 60 percent, reaching $450 billion by the end of 2023. Central Asia is increasingly becoming a dynamic participant in the global economic system. In the past seven years, the region's total trade volume has more than doubled, reaching approximately $225 billion. Intra-regional trade has increased 4.5 times, from $2.4 billion to $11 billion. At the same time, foreign direct investment inflows have nearly doubled, from $27 billion in 2016 to $50 billion in 2023. Notably, mutual investments among Central Asian countries are growing steadily, with an average annual increase of 9 percent.
Cumulatively, foreign investment stock in the region has expanded more than twentyfold over the past two decades, from $12.2 billion to $251.4 billion. Central Asian countries are projected to attract up to $170 billion in foreign investments by 2030. Uzbekistan, in particular, has demonstrated high investment momentum, having attracted $14.6 billion in Chinese investments over the past six years (a sixfold increase), $7.5 billion from South Korea, and $1.2 billion from Turkiye(a threefold increase). These investments are being directed toward the creation of industrial clusters, biotech parks, the semiconductor industry, and engineering and technology centers — initiatives aimed at generating high-value-added production chains. As a result, gross fixed capital formation has increased from 24 percent to 35 percent of GDP over four years, while the volume of capital investments reached $22 billion in 2023.
At the same time, the number of joint ventures has grown significantly. Since 2016, the number of enterprises with the participation of Central Asian capital in Uzbekistan has increased almost sixfold, reaching 1,830. Likewise, the number of joint ventures with Uzbek capital in other Central Asian countries has grown 8.5 times, exceeding 4,700. These developments point to deepening regional economic interdependence and a growing level of integration, laying a solid foundation for sustainable growth and collective outreach to global markets.
This dynamic trajectory highlights the emergence of Central Asia as a proactive and increasingly self-reliant economic region. The countries of the region are no longer viewed merely as peripheral suppliers of raw materials, but as forward-looking actors capable of attracting high-quality investments, fostering industrial modernization, and expanding their presence in global value chains. The growing integration within the region, combined with strategic diversification of external partnerships, underscores Central Asia's commitment to sustainable development, innovation, and long-term resilience in the global economy.
Under these conditions, in which U.S. policies contrast sharply with Central Asia's dynamism, the development of dialogue within the Central Asia-U.S. (C5+1) platform takes on particular importance, as it remains a key mechanism for multilateral engagement. The format provides an appropriate space to discuss not only strategic issues related to security and sustainable development, but also sensitive topics such as visa policy, academic exchanges, and the conditions for economic cooperation. Maintaining open dialogue on such matters can help dispel concerns, build trust, and lay the groundwork for a more pragmatic and results-oriented partnership between the United States and the countries of the region.
In conclusion, it should be emphasized that amid the transformation of the global agenda and the rise of regional agency, Central Asia is increasingly shaping itself as a space of opportunity for mutually beneficial cooperation. For the United States, this represents not only a window for renewing active dialogue but also a chance to develop a pragmatic engagement strategy that reflects the interests of both sides. Addressing economic, visa-related, and infrastructure issues through platforms like C5+1 enables a transition from statements to action, strengthening trust and establishing a solid foundation for durable partnership in the evolving geopolitical landscape.