Energy Markets Rattled As Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates

Forbes

16 hours ago

Infographic with a map showing the location of strikes and explosions following the attack carried ... More out on June 13 by Israel in Iran, according to non-exhaustive data reported by the ISW, as of June 13 at 1525 GMT (Graphic by Valentina BRESCHI and Sylvie HUSSON / AFP) (Graphic by VALENTINA BRESCHI,SYLVIE HUSSON/AFP via Getty Images)
This morning the world woke to the kind of news that rattles the oil markets. In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, reportedly hitting nuclear sites and killing several senior military officials, including Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guard. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a 'strategic action' aimed at neutralizing what he described as existential threats.
The reaction in the oil markets was swift. Brent crude jumped nearly 8%, briefly topping $78.50, and West Texas Intermediate wasn't far behind, up over 7%. This sharp reaction occurred even though there's no evidence any oil infrastructure was targeted. But when military conflict suddenly flares up with one of the world's biggest oil producers—and they also happen to control the Strait of Hormuz—the market pays attention.
To really grasp the significance, you have to look at the bigger picture. Of course, the tension between Israel and Iran isn't new. It's been simmering for decades, fed by ideology, strategic rivalry, and deep mistrust. Israel views the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. On the flip side, Iran has long backed groups that oppose Israel, both politically and militarily, across the region.
This isn't the first time the two countries have clashed, either—most often through cyberattacks, sabotage, and a network of proxy battles stretching from Lebanon to Iraq to Syria. What's changed is the move from mostly covert operations to overt military confrontation between two countries in the world's most important oil-producing region.
The timing of the attack increases the market's nervousness. Since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel in October 2023 and the war in Gaza that followed, the region has been on edge. Iran has made no secret of its support for both Hamas and Hezbollah, while Israel has stepped up efforts to push back against Iranian influence. What happened Friday didn't come out of nowhere, but it also marks a serious escalation.
Iran may not always dominate headlines, but when it comes to oil and gas, it's one of the world's major players. The country holds some of the largest oil and natural gas reserves on the planet. And despite years of U.S. sanctions, it's still managing to export its crude oil.
How? A mix of official exports and not-so-official ones. A lot of barrels end up in China. Others move more quietly through middlemen in Asia. These aren't always transactions that show up in global tracking systems, but they're happening, and the volume adds up.
Analysts believe that by 2024, Iran was shipping out more than 1.5 million barrels per day. That's not small potatoes. In a market as tightly balanced as global oil, even minor shifts in supply can move prices. And Iran doesn't just sell oil, it has a major role in shaping policy. As part of OPEC+, it sits at the table with countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, giving it influence on the global crude oil market.
But here's where things get especially tense. Iran doesn't just produce oil—it sits right next to the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow stretch of water handles about 20% of the world's daily oil traffic. Any hint that Iran might interfere there—for example, with drone activity, military drills, or even underwater mines—sends traders scrambling. It doesn't take much to spook the oil markets and send prices shooting higher.
When news like this breaks, the markets react quickly. Oil spiked almost immediately, but gold also jumped, while equities took a beating. The S&P 500 was down over 1.5% before lunchtime. The Dow dropped more than 600 points. This time it wasn't a concern over company earnings or interest rates. It was about geopolitical fear—and the flight to safety that always comes with it.
Energy names shot higher, as you'd expect. Shares of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips all moved higher on the assumption that higher crude prices might stick around a while. On the other end of the spectrum, anything tied to transportation, shipping, or industrial manufacturing took a hit—because when oil rises, so do input costs, and profit margins are squeezed.
This would be a tricky moment for energy prices to spike under any circumstances. But right now, it's a potential mess. Inflation had been cooling. The Federal Reserve was inching toward a possible rate cut later this year. The market was breathing easier.
Now? Not so much.
Oil is not just fuel—it's embedded in everything. It moves food, powers planes, heats homes, and keeps production lines moving. Even a short-term rise in crude can work its way into consumer prices. And if this conflict escalates, that rise might not be short-term.
The news gives the Fed another reason to hesitate. Rate cuts just became politically and economically harder to justify.
In plain terms: if oil stays high, inflation will tick back up. If inflation ticks up, the Fed stays put. And if the Fed stays put, markets don't get the monetary easing they've been pricing in.
It's not the first time we've seen conflict in the Middle East send oil prices higher. It probably won't be the last. Go back to the Gulf War, the invasion of Iraq, or even Iran's tanker harassment back in 2019. All those events caused oil to spike—until it became clear that the physical flow of oil wasn't actually disrupted. Then prices settled back down.
That might happen this time too. But it's the uncertainty that drives oil prices higher.
This isn't a proxy fight or a flashpoint involving non-state actors. It's a direct military hit by one sovereign nation on another—and one of them happens to control one of the most important oil corridors in the world. The risk here isn't hypothetical. It's immediate and tangible.
There's a lot we don't know yet, but a few key signals will tell us where things are headed:
This wasn't just another Middle East skirmish. It was a serious, calculated military strike—and the consequences are global. Whether this escalates or cools down over the next few days will determine how the market responds, but make no mistake: energy prices just became a frontline risk again.
Investors should expect more volatility. Rate cut optimism may have just peaked. And inflation, which was slowly retreating into the background, could be gearing up for a second act.
Oil is the world's most important commodity. It's a pressure gauge for global risk. And right now, that needle is climbing fast.