Summit without Xi: What does the Chinese president's unprecedented BRICS no-show signal?

CNA

a day ago

BEIJING/SHENZHEN: When the BRICS summit in Brazil opens this Sunday (Jul 6), a key figure will be conspicuously missing from the table: Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It is an unprecedented no-show that will be sorely felt, while at the same time raising questions about China's diplomatic priorities and possibly blunting Beijing's ability to advance its agenda at the summit, say analysts.
'Considering how important China is to BRICS, his decision not to come would have a negative impact on the summit - no question about that,' Oliver Stuenkel, associate professor at the School of International Relations at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), a leading Brazilian think tank, told CNA.
Observers point to domestic pressures as a likely reason for Xi's absence - be it uncertainty over fraught trade talks with the United States, sluggish consumption, a protracted property crisis or the ongoing planning for China's next development chapter.
The Xi no-show - alongside absences by Russian President Vladimir Putin and possibly other heads of state - is also expected to shift the spotlight to the remaining BRICS leaders, from long-time members like India to newer entrants such as Indonesia, they add.
Still, observers caution against reading too much into the optics.
'With expansion, (BRICS has) become a bit unwieldy. Finding agreement has become more difficult, but I don't think (Xi's absence) is a concerted effort by the Chinese to downgrade BRICS,' Stuenkel said.
GIVING BRICS AN UNPRECEDENTED MISS
Originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China, with South Africa joining soon after, BRICS has recently embarked on an ambitious expansion drive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates came on board in 2024, followed by Indonesia earlier this year as the newest entrant.
Widely regarded as a growing diplomatic counterweight to traditional Western powers, the intergovernmental grouping has held an annual leaders' summit since 2009. Since becoming China's supremo in late 2012, Xi has attended all of them without fail.
But not this year. Word that Xi would give the upcoming two-day summit in Rio de Janeiro a miss was first carried by the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Jun 25.
Formal confirmation came on Jul 2, when China's Foreign Ministry announced at a routine press briefing that Premier Li Qiang would head to Rio instead.
China is the economic anchor of BRICS, accounting for around 60 per cent of the grouping's total nominal gross domestic product (GDP). Beijing is also the largest trading partner for most of the grouping's members.
Xi's no-show will mirror that of Russian President Putin, who is skipping the summit over an ICC arrest warrant. Brazil is a signatory to the ICC, meaning it would be obliged to arrest the Russian leader if he entered the country. Putin also did not attend the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa, another signatory to the ICC.
The Kremlin has said Putin will join virtually, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attending in his place. China has not said whether Xi will similarly join the summit via video link.
Analysts have also raised doubts over the attendance of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart as Middle East tensions simmer - from the 20-month Gaza war to a fragile Israel-Iran truce.
China has not publicly explained why Xi is skipping the BRICS summit. But diplomatic sources cited by SCMP pointed to a 'scheduling conflict' and the fact that Xi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have already met twice in the past year.
The two leaders held talks in November 2024 during the G20 summit in Brasilia, and again in May this year during Lula's official visit to Beijing.
Analysts say the near back-to-back engagements, combined with the logistical demands of a journey spanning more than a day each way, could have factored into Xi's decision to stay home.
More pressingly, observers note that Xi may be prioritising domestic affairs over international engagements as China grapples with mounting economic headwinds - from a prolonged property slump and stubborn youth unemployment to renewed tariff threats from the United States.
'Non-attendance by Xi would suggest more pressing domestic priorities and perhaps a view that this BRICS summit would not entail a major breakthrough for the PRC (People's Republic of China),' Chong Ja Ian, associate professor at the National University of Singapore's (NUS) department of political science, told CNA.
Adding to the domestic pull on Xi's attention is the strategic task of charting China's next phase of development, with preparations underway for the country's next five-year plan amid rising geopolitical turbulence.
State news agency Xinhua reported in mid-May that China's Communist Party (CCP) was 'organising the drafting of proposals' for the 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030. A month-long online public consultation was also launched.
The proposals are typically endorsed at a party plenary session before being finalised and unveiled during the annual Two Sessions in March.
Xi's no-show means China will find it 'much more difficult' to advance its causes as the Chinese delegation will have 'much less capacity' to engage in ad hoc conversations with the other heads of state, FGV's Stuenkel noted.
But even as Xi stays home, analysts believe BRICS remains firmly on China's strategic agenda, particularly as the expanding bloc increasingly reflects Beijing's push for a more multipolar global order.
'China views BRICS as a cornerstone of a new global order - one that will allow countries to escape Western dominance through strategic autonomy and financial sovereignty,' Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at Taihe Institute, a Chinese think tank, told CNA.
Xi's no-show at the BRICS summit in Rio should not be interpreted as waning interest in the intergovernmental grouping, said Gabriel Huland, a teaching fellow at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China's school of international studies.
'Paradoxically, it could suggest the opposite - that China sees BRICS as stable and moving in a direction it already guides confidently,' he told CNA.
China has consistently championed the expansion of BRICS since its inception, and the grouping remains central to the country's foreign policy, Huland further pointed out.
'In the context of ongoing tensions with the United States, especially amid the trade war and the Trump administration's emphasis on bilateral agreements, BRICS has become a key multilateral platform for Beijing to project influence and build alternative global governance mechanisms,' he said.
'MORE VISIBILITY' TO OTHER BRICS MEMBERS
Still, analysts say Xi's absence will reshape summit dynamics by shifting the spotlight to other key leaders, especially India's Modi.
FGV's Stuenkel said Modi would likely be the 'biggest attraction'. With no-shows by Xi and Putin, India's prime minister will be the only leader from the original BRIC quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China attending in person, aside from host Lula.
On Jun 27, New Delhi confirmed Modi's attendance at the BRICS summit. According to Indian media reports, Brazil has also extended a state dinner invitation to him.
The physical absence of Xi and Putin - coupled with possible no-shows by the Iranian and Egyptian heads of state - is also expected to give other BRICS members more room to shine, Stuenkel said.
'(In a way, it) gives the democracies of the BRICS grouping more visibility - India, South Africa, Brazil, (and) probably Indonesia.'
Shifting dynamics aside, observers note the summit still provides BRICS countries the opportunity to come together and advance specific issues on their agenda.
There will likely be a 'strong focus' on the reform of international institutions and climate finance, said Stuenkel, who added that Brazil is 'obviously' trying to connect the BRICS summit to the COP30 climate conference, which it is hosting in November.
'(Also) perhaps the attempt to project BRICS as guardians of geopolitical stability in the face of an erratic America,' Stuenkel said.
At the same time, familiar themes are set to be on the agenda. These include de-dollarisation - the drive to reduce reliance on the US dollar in global trade, finance and reserves - and the ongoing push to expand the bloc's membership.
Beijing has long led calls for greater use of local currencies and has even backed proposals for a common BRICS currency. Fellow BRICS member and key strategic partner Russia has also expressed similar sentiments.
At last year's summit in Kazan, Putin accused the US of 'weaponising' the dollar.
Xi echoed those concerns, calling for 'high-level financial security' and urging reforms to the international financial architecture. He also reaffirmed China's support for the New Development Bank, a key part of BRICS' effort to build alternatives to Western-led financial institutions.
'China stands firmly with Russia in advancing alternatives to the dollar and Western-led institutions,' said Taihe Institute's Tangen. 'These efforts are essential to reshaping global governance.'
In 2024, the bloc's combined foreign exchange reserves accounted for an estimated 42 per cent of global holdings, according to Dutch bank ING.
But turning that financial weight into actual de-dollarisation is another matter. Progress has also been tempered by caution from other key BRICS members such as India and Brazil, with reservations expressed over the practicalities and geopolitical implications.
Brazil has stressed the need to avoid antagonising Western partners, while India continues to walk a strategic tightrope - engaging with BRICS while deepening ties with the US and Group of Seven developed economies.
'Brazil's cautious diplomacy and India's hedging threaten to dilute BRICS' transformative potential, prioritising trade over systemic change,' Tangen said.
At the same time, analysts warn that friction within BRICS is set to deepen as the bloc grows larger and more diverse - a shift that could slow consensus and complicate progress.
BRICS saw a major expansion in 2024 with four new members joining its ranks, followed by the latest entrant Indonesia earlier this year. Together, the enlarged bloc now accounts for nearly half the world's population and around 40 per cent of global GDP when measured by purchasing power parity, according to figures cited by China's state-run Global Times.
Ten nations have also been designated as BRICS 'partners'.
Comprising Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam, BRICS partner-countries are invited to participate in the bloc's events but do not have the same decision-making authority as full members.
'Beijing probably saw expansion in previous rounds as a success,' said NUS' Chong.
'That said, an increase in the number of members, each with different priorities, makes coordination and collective action a more complicated endeavour.'
Chong further pointed out that while progress is likely to slow as the different members iron out gaps amid competing national agendas, such a phenomenon is not unique to BRICS.
'This has been the case with many international groupings, so to see similar organisational challenges with BRICS as it expands should be unsurprising,' he said.
'It is not exceptional in that regard.'