The government needs a viable plan to stop the small boats

Times

2 days ago

There are some milestones that no government wants to meet early. Hitting 20,000 arrivals by small boats in the first six months of this year is one of them. According to the latest Home Office figures, the number of people who crossed the English Channel illegally was up 48 per cent compared with the first six months of 2024, and up ­75 per cent on the same period in 2023. The warm weather this summer has played a role in this rise, but far more important has been the government's failing strategy on illegal migration.
The 20,000 crossings threshold has been reached much earlier in 2025 than in previous years. In 2022, the year that total arrivals hit an ­all-time high of nearly 46,000, the threshold was not reached until August 14. The new figures suggest Britain is on course to break the 2022 record and that illegal crossings could reach 50,000 before the year end. Were that to happen, it would represent another blow for Sir Keir Starmer's credibility: the prime minister has repeatedly promised to succeed where his Conservative predecessors failed and 'stop the boats'.
Ministers are said to be confident that new measures will begin to reduce the numbers, ­including a promise by French police to intercept boats up to 300 metres from the coastline. These tweaks may result in small decreases but they are no substitute for a serious deterrent for those seeking to cross the Channel. Until there is a realistic prospect that illegal immigrants will be immediately removed from this country and processed elsewhere, the demand for what has become the Channel taxi service will continue apace.
The prime minister pledged in opposition to scrap the Rwanda scheme for processing illegal ­arrivals offshore, and duly did so on his first day in office. Although the scheme was thwarted by legal challenges, Sir Keir must regret turning his face against a deterrent strategy last year. Small boat crossings have risen relentlessly, forcing the government to accept the inevitable and explore the use of overseas 'returns hubs', most likely in the Balkans.
However, Sir Keir is pinning his hopes for meaningful reductions on a returns deal with France, which has so far eluded him during his first year in office. President Macron will make a state visit to the UK next week, and a 'one-in, one-out' deal is in the offing. The prime minister hopes this can break the business model of smuggling gangs and choke off their trade. If such a pact is struck, Britain would finally be able to send illegal migrants back to France. But in return, it would have to ­admit an equal number of migrants who have a legitimate case for reuniting with relatives here. Of course, the success of the scheme relies on co-operation with France, which has happily taken British money for years while failing to turn off the flow of small boats. It can only be hoped that this deal, if concluded, will produce some results. It may do nothing to reduce overall admissions but at least the dangerous cross-Channel trade might be curtailed or ended. And it could end also the flow of images of boats crammed with refugees that has benighted successive administrations.
The impact of illegal migration is stark. As well as the burden for the Home Office of processing the claims, analysis reported in The Times suggests that migrants arriving by small boat are 25 times more likely to end up in prison than an average Briton. Mired in the welfare fiasco, Sir Keir needs a win. He must hope Mr Macron will oblige.