PH economic officials slash 2025–2028 growth forecasts
Budget Sec. Amenah Pangandaman (center) speaks during a briefing in Mandaluyong City on Thursday, June 26, 2025. With her are (from left) Finance Asec. Karlo Fermin Adriano, DepDEV Sec. Arsenio Balisacan, Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Sec. Frederick Go, and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald Abenoja. Jon Viktor D. Cabuenas/ GMA Integrated News
The Philippine economic team slashed its growth forecasts for this year and the next three years, citing heightened global uncertainties such as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.
The inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) now targets economic growth to average between 5.5% to 6.5% this year, slower than the previous target range of 6.0% to 8.0%.
The DBCC also lowered its target range from 2026 to 2028 to 6.0% to 7.0% from the previous range of 6.0% to 7.0%.
'The revisions take into account heightened global uncertainties, such as the unforeseen escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the imposition of U.S. tariffs,' the DBCC said in a joint statement read by chairman and Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman in a briefing in Mandaluyong City.
'Despite these headwinds, the DBCC remains vigilant and ready to deploy timely and targeted measures to mitigate their potential impact on the Philippine economy. Moreover, international reserves remain ample providing adequate buffer to help absorb these external shocks,' she added.
Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated in the past week, but the two parties have sent signals that the conflict was over at least for now, as they have agreed to a ceasefire under pressure from US President Donald Trump.
The DBCC now expects goods exports to contract 2.0% this year, and goods imports to expand by 3.5%.
The United States earlier planned to slap a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine goods as part of the 'Liberation Day' policy, which compares with the 34% rate that Manila charges against American goods. This was set to take effect on April 9, but Trump announced a 90-day pause on most countries except China, while countries such as the Philippines could still face a baseline 10% tariff.
Sought for the latest updates regarding the trade negotiations with the US, Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs Secretary Frederick Go said July 9 remains to be the target for negotiations to be finalized.
'We have not heard otherwise. Of course the markets are swirling with different kinds of news from different countries, but for now we continue to negotiate with the U.S. We have submitted some of our suggested negotiation points and the U.S. has also responded, so it's a back and forth,' he said in the same briefing.
The DBCC on Thursday also announced new macroeconomic assumptions for the year — inflation to average 2.0% to 3.0%, Dubai crude at $60 to $70 per barrel, the foreign exchange rate at P56:$1 to P57:$1.
'The DBCC remains resolute in advancing a growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation agenda that promotes a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economy,' it said. — BM, GMA Integrated News
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