China, US could be excluded from Pacific Islands Forum amid pressure over Taiwan

Australia Broadcast Center

4 days ago

Solomon Islands could try to defuse a potentially explosive stoush over Taiwan's participation in a key regional meeting next month by restricting the gathering to Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) members — effectively excluding China, the US and a host of other countries as well.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele is under increasing pressure over whether his country will allow Taiwan's representatives to attend the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Honiara this September.
Taiwan has long attended the meeting as a "development partner" and has used that opportunity to meet with Pacific "allies" which extend its diplomatic recognition — although that band has now dwindled to just three nations.
But Beijing remains intent on doing everything it can to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, and has been pressing Solomon Islands to break with tradition and exclude Taiwan entirely, stirring anger among Taipei's remaining allies, and stoking frustration in Canberra and Wellington.
China responded furiously at last year's PIF leaders meeting in Tonga when Pacific leaders reaffirmed the status quo, and earlier this year, Solomon Islands refused to issue visas to Taiwanese officials who wanted to enter Honiara to help prepare for their delegation.
Now the ABC has been told Mr Manele is likely to propose to fellow Pacific leaders that the annual dialogue with PIF partners be deferred entirely, until after a broader review of regional diplomatic architecture is complete.
That review, which includes a proposal to establish a new "tiered" system for PIF dialogue partners, was meant to be finished in time for the leaders' meeting in September, but has been hit with delays.
By deferring the dialogue, Solomon Islands will effectively block not just China and Taiwan from sending delegations to Honiara, but a host of other countries as well, including from Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
While Mr Manele is likely to present the proposal as procedural, an Australian government source said it was "obvious" that Solomon Islands was also "looking for a solution to the Taiwan problem", which both Beijing and Taiwan's Pacific allies could live with.
Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr has already warned that singling out and excluding Taiwan could risk a reprise of the "PIF split" which rocked the forum a few years ago.
Tuvalu's Climate Change Minister Maina Talia also took aim at China last week, saying Pacific nations that chose to recognise Taiwan also had the right to meet with their key partner at the leaders' meeting.
Anna Powles from Massey University said the compromise being put forward by Mr Manele would "de-escalate a geopolitically charged situation" but was also "evidence that geopolitics has coopted the Forum Leaders Meeting."
One Pacific official told the ABC that while no final decision had been made — and that the PIF Secretariat would have to endorse the proposal — Mr Manele's compromise might be the "only solution" if Solomon Islands was determined not to let Taiwan's representatives into the country.
They also said Mr Manele and the PIF Secretariat would be able to point to a precedent: Fiji also excluded dialogue partners when they hosted the leaders meeting in 2022, saying Pacific nations needed to focus on healing rifts from the PIF split.
Dr Powles said while restricting the meeting to PIF members would help "reduce distractions" from the Forum's "heavy agenda", it was "unlikely to please forum partners who will be looking to Honiara as a chance to jockey for favour".
She also said Solomon Islands was simply "kicking the geopolitical can down the road to Palau, an ally of Taiwan, [which will host the meeting] in 2026."
"It is clear forum leaders need to come up with a solution that respects the commitments the forum has made, respects the national interests of its members, and ensures the forum leaders' meetings do not become a geopolitical circus," she told the ABC.
She also said some major PIF partners might be invited to deliver online or virtual presentations to the gathering instead, as then-US Vice President Kamala Harris did in 2022.
Both Australia and New Zealand have been pressing Solomon Islands not to exclude Taiwan from the September gathering, but neither country has publicly criticised Honiara for its reluctance to allow Taipei to participate.
A spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told the ABC that Australia "values the forum's engagement with international partners at the annual leaders meeting, which provides an opportunity to strengthen the Pacific's voice in global affairs".
"We understand arrangements for the Forum Leaders Meeting in Honiara in September are currently being finalised by the Solomon Islands government with the Pacific Islands Forum secretariat," they said.
China has made substantial diplomatic inroads in Solomon Islands since it coaxed the Pacific nation into switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan in 2019, and both Mr Manele and his predecessor, Manasseh Sogavare, have since been vocal supporters of Beijing's One China principle.
While Mr Manele has drawn little domestic political criticism over the issue, prominent Solomon Islands MP Peter Kenilorea Jr took aim at the government last month, saying it was evidence that China had undermined the country's sovereignty.
Dr Powles said it was "timely" that PIF leaders in Honiara would deliberate over the "Ocean of Peace" framework proposed by Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, as well as "deciding how they want to manage geopolitical tensions in the Pacific."
The ABC has approached both Mr Manele's office and the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat for comment.