Morning Bid: Fizzy market week turns flat
By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
A buoyant week for world markets driven by emerging U.S. trade deals with major economies has gone a bit flat into Friday, with the corporate earnings season throwing up a series of high profile disappointments.
The interest rate backdrop also turned a shade darker, with the European Central Bank holding its 2% rate steady as expected but with some officials signalling that the bar was high for further easing. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations also continued to tick lower despite relentless political pressure, with futures markets now pricing in just 42 basis points of additional easing this year.
* The S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out marginal gains to new records on Thursday, with Alphabet leading the way after its earnings beat. But Tesla's troubles continued, as it dropped more than 8%. Meanwhile, IBM clocked an 8% earnings day drop, American Airlines fell 10% and Honeywell was off 6%. UnitedHealth lost 5% after a probe into its Medicare practises, and Intel lost 5% overnight on its update. Wall Street futures were flat ahead of Friday's bell.
* The European earnings season was also pockmarked with some negative reactions to corporate updates, with shares in German sportswear maker Puma sliding 15% on Friday and French car parts maker Valeo down 9% as both cut full-year outlooks. European stock indexes were down about 0.5%. A rebound in British retail sales last month came in below forecasts too.
* A packed diary next week includes the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings, key U.S. labor market updates, megacap earnings and a heavy Treasury debt auction schedule. Treasury yields were steady to a bit higher on Friday and the dollar nudged up too.
Market Minute
* Investors cashed out of highly valued global stocks on Friday and the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop in a month ahead of a crucial week for markets that includes Donald Trump's tariff deadline and key central bank meetings.
* U.S. President Donald Trump's trade deal with Tokyo opens scope for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year, sources say, a prospect the central bank may start to telegraph by offering a less gloomy view on the economic outlook.
* South Korea's Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan met U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday and reaffirmed a commitment to reach a deal on tariffs by the August 1 deadline, South Korea's industry ministry said on Friday.
* The optimism sweeping world stock markets following news of emerging and expected U.S. trade deals is undeniable and understandable. But, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, it is also puzzling.
* U.S. President Donald Trump sprang a double surprise on the copper market when he announced import tariffs of 50% effective next month. ROI metals columnist Andy Home notes that the market was betting on a different outcome.
Weekend reads
* GEN AI AND PRODUCTIVITY: The Generative AI boom shows encouraging signs of raising the productivity level, opens new tab of the wider economy, according to a Federal Reserve Board discussion paper. But the researchers conclude that GenAI's contribution to productivity growth will depend on the speed with which its benefits are obtained, and notes that historically it takes time for revolutionary technologies to be integrated into the economy.
* SUBNATIONAL DEBTS: Debates about debt sustainability often only focus only on "sovereign" or central government balances and ignore a complex, growing role of subnational governments., opens new tab In a piece on CEPR's VoxEU site, economists Sean Dougherty, Acaua Brochado and Pietrangelo de Biase point out how subnational government accounts for nearly 40% of public investment and more than a quarter of public spending. They argue these entities face tighter borrowing conditions, increasing investment responsibilities and market structures that often fail to price risk accurately. Left unaddressed, these dynamics could undermine both macro stability and government priorities.
* DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY: Europe's systemic dependency on Big Tech's social-media, opens new tab platforms threatens the continent's digital sovereignty as policymakers argue there's little alternative. But, as developer Sebastian Vogelsang argues on Project Syndicate this week, this ignores the potential for building apps on open-source frameworks like the AT Protocol, the foundation for Bluesky.
* 'SPY COCKROACHES'?: For Gundbert Scherf - the co-founder of Germany's Helsing, Europe's most valuable defence start-up - Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed everything. As Reuters' Supantha Mukherjee, Sarah Marsh and Christoph Steitz report, the Munich-based company more than doubled its valuation to $12 billion at a fundraising last month. Scherf - a former partner at McKinsey - says Europe may be on the cusp of a transformation in defence innovation akin to the Manhattan Project.
* SYRIA'S ECONOMICS: A Reuters investigation found that Syria's new leadership is secretly restructuring an economy broken by corruption and years of sanctions against Assad's government, under the auspices of a group of men whose identities have until now been concealed under pseudonyms. Away from public scrutiny, the committee obtained assets worth more than $1.6 billion. That tally is based on accounts of people familiar with its deals to acquire business stakes and cash seizures, including at least $1.5 billion in assets taken from three businessmen and firms in a conglomerate once controlled by Assad's inner circle.
Chart of the day
With Fed policy under a microscope, attention switches to the labor market next week - culminating in the release of the national employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the economy added 102,000 non-farm payrolls this month - which would be the lowest monthly tally since February. However, the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed jobless claims last week fell to 217,000 - well below estimates - signaling continued resilience in the job market.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. June durable goods orders (8:30 AM EDT)
* U.S. corporate earnings: Aon, HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Phillips 66, Centene
* South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol and Minister for Trade Yeo Han-koo meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington
* U.S. President Donald Trump makes private visit to Scotland
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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