What is the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961? Why NFL games will air during CFP first round
Part of that hype and anticipation for the schedule has to do with a tradition that takes place this time of the year: the NFL's network partners — Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN and Amazon Prime — leaking some of the marquee games that will be carried on their airwaves or streaming platform.
Of the leaks, which include international games, that have already happened, perhaps the most talked about one is the NFL on Fox divisional doubleheader on Dec. 20. The games featured are four high-profile teams: The Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears.
December 20, huh? Yes, the first thought that might come to mind for the avid college football fan is correct, as that is the first weekend of the upcoming College Football Playoff schedule. Why is that allowed, when college football and the NFL generally don't intersect?
Here's what you need to know about the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 and whether there is a violation of its boundaries with the Fox's NFL doubleheader and the start of the College Football Playoff:
Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 explained
In short, when Congress passed the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 — which is also known as the Act of September 30, 1961 — it gave the NFL antitrust exemption from bargaining for or selling their broadcasting rights, as long as the NFL doesn't play a game on the second Friday in September through the second Saturday in December. While other professional leagues are included in the act, it is mainly for the NFL. Why mainly the NFL? Well, the Department of Justice found the NFL's method of negotiating television broadcasting rights violated antitrust laws in the Sherman Act.
The reason why the NFL is not allowed to have a game on the second Friday in September through the second Saturday in December is because that is the traditional timeline for high school and college football season.
When the NFL played its first international game in Sao Paulo, Brazil, last year between the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers on Sept. 6, 2024, the NFL did not violate the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961. The reason for that is, Sept. 6 fell on the first Friday in September and not the second. This is the same reason why the NFL is playing another game in Brazil this year, where the Los Angeles Chargers are the home team.
Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 boundaries
According to Section 3 of the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, the NFL is prohibited from playing a game(s) on the second Friday in September to the second Saturday in December because of how the college football season schedule is structured.
In other words, Section 3 of the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 blocks the NFL from playing a game on a Friday night after 6 p.m. from Week 3 of the college football season through the Army-Navy game in Week 16.
Here's the exact wording from Section 3 of the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, per govinfo.gov:
"The First sentence of section 1 of this Act shall not apply to any joint agreement described in section 1 of this Actwhich permits the telecasting of all or a substantial part of any professional football game on any Friday after six o'clock postmeridian or on any Saturday during the period beginning on the second Friday in September and ending on the second Saturday in December in any year from any telecasting station located within seventy-five miles of the game site of any intercollegiate or interscholastic football contest scheduled to be played on such a date if—
(1) such intercollegiate football contest is between institutions of higher learning both of which confer degrees upon students following completion of sufficient credit hours to equal a four-year course, or(2) in the case of an interscholastic football contest, such contest is between secondary schools, both of which are accredited or certified under the laws of the State or States in which they are situated and offer courses continuing through the twelfth grade of the standard school curriculum, or the equivalent, and(3) such intercollegiate or interscholastic football contest and such game site were announced through publication in a newspaper of general circulation prior to August 1 of such year as being regularly scheduled for such day and place."
All told, since the College Football Playoff doesn't start until the third week in December − as first-round games are to take place Friday, Dec. 19 and Saturday, Dec. 20 this year − the NFL is not restricted from playing its doubleheader on Fox between the Commanders-Eagles and Bears-Packers on Dec. 20.
College Football Playoff schedule 2025-26
College Football Playoff 2025-26 start date: Friday, Dec. 19, 2025
Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 College Football Playoff 2025-26 end date: Monday, Jan. 19, 2026
Here's a look at the schedule for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff from the first round through national championship:
First Round
Friday, Dec. 19: One game (on-campus site)
One game (on-campus site) Saturday, Dec. 20: Three games (on-campus sites)
Quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026: Capital One Orange Bowl (Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.) at Noon ET on ESPN; Rose Bowl Game (Rose Bowl — Pasadena, Cali.) at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN; Allstate Sugar Bowl (Caesars Superdome — New Orleans) at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Semifinals
Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Arizona) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Arizona) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Friday, Jan. 9, 2026: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
2026 CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 19, 2026: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fast. Download for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
24 minutes ago
- USA Today
Big Ten pitches College Football Playoff ideas that torch its credibility
The conference that once held itself aloft as a beacon of all things good and honorable about college athletics is now considering making a mockery of the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten, led commissioner Tony Petitti, has jumped the shark. Instead of capitalizing on the momentum of back-to-back national championships, the Big Ten spent the offseason concocting absurd College Football Playoff plans, with its latest idea even zanier than the last. Petitti just will not rest until he gets every 8-4 Big Ten team into the playoff. His latest playoff idea, according to multiple reports, would expand the playoff to as many as 28 teams and include as many as seven automatic bids apiece for the Big Ten and SEC, with additional automatic bids for other leagues. We've now zoomed past 8-4 Iowa toward an even lower rung on the totem pole for playoff mediocrity. Welcome to the playoff hunt, 7-5 Rutgers! This idea doesn't count as radical. It's ridiculous. Big Ten damages credibility in offseason of bad ideas They say you are the company you keep. Well, Petitti spent the past few months keeping company with – and breathing life into – stupid ideas. He previously failed to gain support for his attempt to rig the playoff with a 16-team format that would have reserved four automatic bids for his conference and four more for the SEC. When that plan failed to gain traction, the Big Ten upped the ante by socializing this idea to shoehorn unranked teams into the playoff. Petitti's expanded playoff plans would increase television inventory, but at what cost? Growing the playoff to 28 teams would cheapen the regular season. That cannot be the end game. A 28-team playoff does nothing for the Big Ten's upper crust, either. Ohio State doesn't need this. Neither does Michigan, not when it can cheat its way to glory. Oregon couldn't win one playoff game, so now the solution is to shove the Big Ten's champion into a 28-team maze? When Petitti arrived on the college sports scene in 2023, he brought with him a Harvard law degree and a background as a television executive. He began his tenure overseeing the additions of Oregon and Washington to solidify the Big Ten's western flank. A fine start. Since then, he's moved to the back of the class and tarnished his credibility while raising his hand with goofy playoff suggestions, while his SEC counterpart, Greg Sankey, retains his grip on the king's scepter. Can Big Ten and SEC find a compromise to expand playoff? Let's assume there's something behind this latest plan for playoff gluttony other than a desire to make the Big Ten a magnet for criticism. What other motivation might the Big Ten have? Well, by floating a plan more ludicrous the last, the Big Ten might hope to reignite conversations toward a compromise. Oh, so you don't like a 28-team playoff that invites 7-5 Big Ten teams? OK, let's make a deal! Just one problem with that. Petitti remains intent on reducing the playoff selection committee's role, in favor of a preassigning a bundle of automatic bids, but the SEC doesn't seem too interested in making a deal toward playoff plans bloated with multiple automatic bids for conferences it believes are inferior. The SEC backpedaled from Petitti's past plan to rig a 16-team playoff with a stacked deck of automatic bids. The SEC's coaches turned their eye toward a 5+11 playoff model that would add four additional at-large bids to the 12-team current playoff format. The Big 12 and ACC support the 5+11 plan. The Big Ten stands in objection to the 5+11 model, in part because the ACC and SEC play one fewer conference game than the Big Ten. The Big Ten's pushback on conference scheduling is not without merit, but it lacks the power to bring the SEC and ACC to heel on its scheduling. Expanding the playoff would require the SEC and Big Ten to align behind a model. If they cannot agree on a new format, that would prolong the runway for the current model. 'The Big Ten has a different view (of what's good for playoff expansion)," Sankey said in July. "That's fine. We have a 12-team playoff. … That could stay if we can't agree." If you think Sankey's bluffing about persisting with the current model, consider he was one of the architects of the 12-team playoff. He dubbed the first year of the expanded playoff 'a success,' even though the SEC did not advance a team to the national championship game. The offseason tweak to introduce straight seeding benefits the SEC. There's no reason for the SEC to rush to abandon this format. The selection committee historically values the SEC. The more at-large bids, the better, for the SEC. Maybe, Petitti believes flooding the zone with zany ideas will spur the SEC toward a suitable compromise. There's another possibility, though. With each half-baked playoff idea, the Big Ten and its leader further diminish their credibility, and the opportunity for playoff expansion absorbs a gut punch. Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@ and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
New York Times
25 minutes ago
- New York Times
Ranking the NFL's 25 best rookie QB seasons of the past 25 years
Playing quarterback in the National Football League is not just one of the hardest jobs in sports — it's one of the hardest anywhere. And playing quarterback as a rookie is even harder. The pressure, the expectations, the degree of difficulty and the absence of any margin for error can confound even the most seasoned veterans. Plenty of rookie quarterbacks — some of the best we've ever seen — weren't ready to start a game during their first year, let alone to lead a team through an entire season. And though plenty have also come out firing, it's important to note that how a quarterback performs during his first season in the NFL is not always an exact harbinger of what's to come. Advertisement With all that in mind, as we prepare for the NFL season, let's look back at the 25 best rookie quarterback performances of the past 25 years: Stats: 331-of-480 passing (69.0 percent) for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, nine INTs; 891 yards rushing, six TDs Team result: 12-5 (second place, NFC East), lost NFC title game A few first-year quarterbacks have thrown for more yards and touchdowns or had better EPA numbers. But no one on this list was able to enter a rocky situation and completely change the math overnight the way Daniels did last season in Washington — he nearly became the first rookie QB to start a Super Bowl. One of the league's brightest young stars, Daniels set NFL rookie QB records for rushing yards, fourth-quarter/overtime TDs and overall completion percentage. Stats: 319-of-499 passing (63.9 percent) for 4,108 yards, 23 TDs, five INTs; 167 yards rushing, three TDs Team result: 10-7 (first place, AFC South), lost in divisional round Purely from a big-money passing standpoint, Stroud would be No. 1 on this list. His 2023 season was a revelation and immediately silenced draft scouts who questioned whether Stroud was smart enough to handle an NFL offense. At 22 years, three months and 10 days, he became the youngest NFL starting QB to win a playoff game when Houston knocked off Cleveland in the wild-card round. Stroud also set rookie records for passing yards (470) and TDs (5) in a game, as well as most attempts without a pick to start a career (191) and number of games with at least 350 passing yards (3). Stats: 311-of-459 passing (67.8 percent) for 3,667 yards, 23 TDs, four INTs; 282 yards rushing, six rush TDs Team result: 13-3 (first place, NFC East), lost in divisional round Advertisement The 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Prescott notched a sizzling rookie-record 104.9 QB rating. And though it would take him eight years to top that number, the season was an indicator of Prescott's efficiency (66.8 percent for his career) — his rookie completion percentage (67.8) was the NFL record until Daniels broke it. One could even argue the 2016 season was the most accurate of Prescott's career, as his completion rate above expected was a whopping 7.3, easily a career best. Now 32, Prescott hasn't quite lived up to the crazy bar he set as a rookie — he's never topped the .23 EPA/dropback number he notched that year. He has, however, spent the bulk of his run near the top of the league's second QB tier. Stats: 258-of-393 passing (65.6 percent) for 3,200 yards, 20 TDs, five INTs; 815 yards rushing, seven TDs Team result: 10-6 (first place NFC East), lost in wild-card round It's possible this is too low, as RGIII (the NFL's first starting QB born in the 1990s) tore through the league as a dynamic, big-play, dual-threat passer and finished with more than 4,000 total yards. His EPA/dropback of .22 is second only to Prescott's (.23) among rookies this century. Griffin required major knee surgery following the 2012 season and was never the same. He ultimately lost his starting job to Kirk Cousins by 2015. Stats: 196-of-295 passing (66.4 percent) for 2,621 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs; 144 yards rushing, one TD Team result: 15-1 (first place, AFC North), lost AFC title game Context is required to understand how big a deal Roethlisberger's rookie year was at the time. He began the year as Pittsburgh's No. 3 but found himself on the field in Week 2 after an injury to starter Tommy Maddox. Roethlisberger would go on to start — and win — his next 13 games, helping Pittsburgh to the league's best record. Advertisement In his second season, he became the youngest Super Bowl-winning QB, posting a scorching .21 EPA/dropback and proving to be the missing piece Pittsburgh needed for an elite run. Stats: 252-of-393 passing (64.1 percent) for 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs; 489 yards rushing, four TDs Team result: 11-5 (second place, NFC West), lost in divisional round I've long considered Russell Wilson the originator of the transfer portal, as his graduate move to — and subsequent performance at — Wisconsin in 2011 popularized the movement. He showed an ability to immediately fit within a talented roster as a Badger, then was able to do it again as a rookie in Seattle. Wilson and Bobby Wagner were exactly what Seattle needed. The young QB pushed the offense into uncharted waters, posting a .19 EPA/dropback number with a rate of 9.9 air yards per attempt. Stats: 339-of-627 passing (54.1 percent) for 4,374 yards, 23 TDs, 18 INTs; 255 yards rushing, five TDs Team result: 11-5 (second place, AFC South), lost in wild-card round One of the most fearless NFL quarterbacks we've ever seen, Luck averaged better than 10 air yards per attempt as a rookie while showing zero hesitation into tight windows or over the middle of the field. His interception total was high, but his work bouncing back after mistakes was very impressive from a young player. Luck was sacked a career-high 41 times as a rookie (fourth highest in the NFL that year) and kept getting up, willing a group that went 2-14 in 2011 to 11 wins one year later. Stats: 396-of-595 passing (67.6 percent) for 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs; 234 yards rushing, five TDs Team result: 7-9 (third place, AFC West) The NFL record-holder for most passing yards through the first two, three, four and five seasons of a career, Herbert didn't even open his rookie year as the Chargers' starter — he took over in Week 2 for an injured Tyrod Taylor before exploding for one of the most productive opening seasons ever. Advertisement Herbert was the ninth-best NFL starter that year against two-high coverage and ranked among the top 10 in completion percentage above expected (102.4), making it one of the most accurate years of his career to date. Stats: 310-of-517 passing (60.0 percent) for 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 TDs; 706 yards rushing, 14 TDs Team result: 6-10 (third place, NFC South) Newton set the NFL record for total touchdowns by a rookie QB (35) in 2011 (Herbert broke it in 2020 with 36). The former No. 1 pick still holds the league record for total yards by a rookie quarterback (4,784, including a 27-yard reception) and was the league's first 4,000-yard rookie passer. In his first NFL game, Newton threw for 422 yards and had three total touchdowns. He never won a title, but when he was physically right, he was one of the most unique quarterbacks we've ever seen and helped set the table for future dual-threat players. Stats: 376-of-567 passing (66.3 percent) for 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs; 430 yards rushing, four TDs Team result: 10-7 (third place, AFC West), lost in wild-card round A rookie quarterback surviving the experience that is Sean Payton's complex offense is enough to earn a spot somewhere on this list. But Nix did more than survive. There are limitations to Nix's game, but he rarely tries to work outside his capabilities — nor does Payton ask him to. Nix was very efficient for a rookie, piling up 12.5 first downs per game, not far behind Daniels' number of 13.2 (which tied with Josh Allen). Stats: 349-of-542 passing (64.4 percent) for 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs; 544 yards rushing, four TDs Team result: 5-10-1 (fourth place, NFC West) Despite being sacked a league-high 48 times in 2019, the diminutive Murray still hit nearly 65 percent of his throws while maintaining his presence as a dual-threat player. He showed better arm strength as a rookie than some expected, was confident in all areas of the field and emerged as a perfect fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense (which is a good one for young QBs). Advertisement Stats: 351-of-562 passing (62.5 percent) for 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, six INTs; 489 yards rushing Team result: 5-12 (fourth place, NFC North) Daniels' historic season certainly stole some thunder from Williams, the No. 1 pick in 2024. However, it's not fair to suggest Williams had a 'bad' or 'disappointing' season. Williams had a stretch of 354 throws without a pick last year, an NFL rookie record. And in similar fashion to Murray, he did this while being sacked more times (68) than anyone in the NFL — even if plenty of those were his own fault. Stats: 265-of-434 passing (61.1 percent) for 3,440 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs; 104 yards rushing, one TD Team result: 11-5 (second place, NFC South), lost in wild-card round The Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2008, Ryan became the NFC's first rookie quarterback to start every game and take a team into the playoffs. Ryan's performance was critical in helping revive an Atlanta franchise that had lost Michael Vick and dealt with Bobby Petrino just one year prior. Stats: 126-of-204 passing (61.7 percent) for 1,699 yards, 19 TDs, eight INTs; 269 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 4-12 (fourth place, AFC South) Watson made just six starts in 2017 (Weeks 2-7) before going down with an ACL injury in early November, but he was on pace for a potentially historic run — his numbers stretched over the full season would've given him a shot at 4,000 yards passing and 50 touchdowns. Stats: 310-of-486 passing (63.8 percent) for 3,725 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs; 131 yards rushing Team result: 7-8-1 (third place, AFC North) Let the record show that Mayfield's run in Cleveland didn't end because he never made plays. Consistency was certainly an issue, but he also had some great days — such as throwing for more than 500 yards combined with seven touchdowns (and zero interceptions) in two wins over the Bengals or his near 400-yard passing performance in a two-point loss at Baltimore to close the season. Stats: 114-of-170 passing (67.1 percent) for 1,374 yards, 13 TDs, four INTs; 13 yards rushing, one TD Team result: 13-4 (first place, NFC West), lost NFC title game Purdy's rookie year was sort of the opposite of Watson's, in that he started the season's final five games (and attempted 37 passes in relief the game before that stretch), leading the 49ers into the playoffs with an incredibly accurate showing. Purdy was fearless over the middle that season, earning a .47 EPA number on attempts between the numbers. Advertisement Stats: 285-of-470 passing (60.6 percent) for 3,271 yards, 21 TDs, six INTs; 344 yards rushing Team result: 6-10 (fourth place, AFC South) It's fair to wonder what might have been for Minshew had the Jaguars not landed the No. 1 pick and the right to draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Minshew was very good as a rookie and played well early in 2020, despite the talent around him. He hasn't earned a full-time role since, but Minshew remains an accurate, confident passer — one who has outperformed his sixth-round draft slot. Stats: 312-of-535 passing (58.3 percent) for 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs; 213 yards rushing, six TDs Team result: 6-10 (fourth place, NFC South) Turnovers have always been a problem for Winston, and his rookie year was no exception. But Winston never let a mistake throttle back his aggression. He became the youngest player in NFL history (21 years, 363 days) to throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Stats: 352-of-521 passing (67.6 percent) for 3,801 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs; 129 yards rushing Team result: 10-7 (second place, AFC East), lost in wild-card round To date, 2021 remains the best year of Mac Jones' career — and by a good amount. However, the Patriots did him zero favors. Jones' rookie year was the last in New England for Josh McDaniels. Matt Patricia was Jones' OC for Year 2 and his play has dwindled ever since. Stats: 225-of-338 passing (66.6 percent) for 2,276 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs; 421 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 4-13 (fourth place, AFC East) Maye got off to a bit of an awkward start, as he began the year as the backup despite looking ready to hold the No. 1 job post-training camp. He finally got the nod in Week 6 and kept his head above water the rest of the way, all while guiding one of the least talented rosters in football. DRAKE MAYE! RHAMONDRE STEVENSON! @PATRIOTS TIE IT UP! — NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024 Stats: 257-of-428 passing (60.0 percent) for 2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs; 180 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 11-5 (second place, AFC North), lost AFC title game One of four quarterbacks on our list to lead his rookie squad to a conference title game, Flacco was the only rookie starter on a talented, veteran roster in Baltimore. He played with enough maturity, however, to support an always-productive Ravens defense in John Harbaugh's debut season. Advertisement Stats: 259-of-402 passing (64.4 percent) for 2,919 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs; 209 yards rushing, one TD Team result: 7-9 (third place, NFC North) Younger fans of today's game need to know that Bridgewater was on his way to potential stardom before suffering a devastating and career-altering knee injury in 2016. Early in his rookie campaign, Bridgewater replaced Matt Cassel and played his best football down the stretch before taking the Vikings to the playoffs in his second season (and earning a Pro Bowl nod). Stats: 230-of-370 passing (62.2 percent) for 2,818 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs; 252 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 3-13 (fourth place, AFC South) Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the first half of his first NFL game and eventually tied Mark Rypien for most touchdowns by a rookie through three starts (8). The former No. 2 pick posted a combined 45 touchdowns over his first two seasons before injuries and inconsistency caught up with him. Stats: 379-of-607 passing (62.4 percent) for 3,782 yards, 16 TDs, 14 INTs; 150 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 7-9 (fourth place, NFC East) Wentz's 379 completions set an NFL rookie record — that number stands now as the second highest of his career. His mark of 3,782 pass yards is also the second best of his career, as Wentz's boom-or-bust debut season paved the way a stellar 13-game run to open 2017. Wentz suffered a knee injury in Year 2, but the Eagles still captured a Super Bowl title. Stats: 284-of-459 passing (61.9 percent) for 3,027 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs; 279 yards rushing, two TDs Team result: 4-12 (third place, NFC East) Jones' rookie year was the best of his career to date — and it's probably the chief reason Saquon Barkley is no longer in New York. Jones threw nine more TD passes as a rookie than in any season since, and his performance served as catalyst for the eventual extension the Giants would come to regret. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Andy Lyons, Tom Pennington, Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
New York Times
25 minutes ago
- New York Times
NFL Projection Model, AFC win totals: Will the Chiefs still reign supreme?
It should come as little surprise that my NFL Projection Model once again sees the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills as the three best teams in the AFC. What might surprise you, however, is that the model doesn't see the three-time reigning AFC champion Chiefs as the conference favorites. In fact, they're not even No. 2. Right now, the model sees the Bills as the AFC favorites, with the Ravens second and the Chiefs a close third. Of course, you should never bet against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have been to the AFC title game seven years in a row, Perhaps as the year goes on, they can reclaim their place atop the AFC, but for now, they're not seen as the absolute cream of the crop. Speaking of which, while the top three have largely separated themselves from the pack, there are a few teams hovering a tier below, threatening to push themselves into true contender status. Let's take a quick look at each division and examine the win total projections for each AFC team heading into the 2025 regular season. (If you want a quick refresher on how my model works, scroll to the bottom of the story.) AFC East The Bills have owned this division ever since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with reigning MVP Josh Allen leading the way, there's every reason to expect their dominance to continue. Allen and the Bills have won five consecutive division crowns, and my model gives them a 74 percent chance to make it six in a row. As long as Allen stays healthy, it's hard to envision a world where Buffalo doesn't win the East again. However, that doesn't mean there's zero hope for the rest of the division. Coach Mike Vrabel is taking the reins of a Patriots team on the rise, with my model projecting them to double their win total from 2024. Vrabel has a proven track record, and when you combine that with a full NFL offseason for up-and-coming QB Drake Maye and some major offseason investments upgrading the roster, the Patriots could turn things around quickly. Remember, the Patriots are slated to face the league's easiest schedule, per my projections, which gives them the best shot to dethrone the Bills. As for the other teams in the East, the Miami Dolphins are trending in the wrong direction, and I don't think the roster is good enough to compete with the Bills. Still, they edge out the New York Jets to avoid finishing at the bottom of the division. Sure, there is reason for optimism with new Jets' coach Aaron Glenn, but they're not ready to compete this early in his tenure. Sorry, Jets fans. AFC North Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL reside in the AFC North, but only one (Lamar Jackson) plays for a team (the Ravens) that knows how to build a roster, while the other (Joe Burrow) is the frontman for a franchise (the Cincinnati Bengals) that looks poised to waste another prime season of its star quarterback. The Ravens have won back-to-back division crowns and are in a great position to make it three in a row. That's because while the Ravens and Bengals offenses will be comparably excellent, with both quarterbacks in the thick of the MVP race, that's where the comparison ends. Baltimore should field a solid defense, while my model projects the Bengals defense to, once again, be a below-average unit that will ultimately keep them from accomplishing greatness. It could be a close fight, but my model gives the Ravens a 55 percent chance to win the North, while the Bengals sit at 32 percent. While the top two teams have starting quarterbacks with MVP abilities, the bottom two teams each have quarterbacks with a Super Bowl ring. Unfortunately, those Super Bowl victories came a decade and a half ago. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be a fringe AFC playoff team because my model believes QB Aaron Rodgers still has a little something left in the tank, while coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to win a couple of games the Steelers shouldn't. Then there's the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco. The biggest question in Cleveland is how long he'll keep hold of the starting job with rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel lurking. Either way, the Browns will likely be contending for a top-5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. AFC South The division should produce one of the tightest races in the NFL, with some intriguing teams but no true Super Bowl contender. Right now, my model doesn't project any team in the South to win nine games, on average. The Houston Texans have won back-to-back division crowns with 10-win seasons, while the Jaguars won three years ago with nine wins. Part of the reason for the parity in this division is the inconsistency and uncertainty at quarterback from top to bottom. This division race will likely hinge on whether Texans QB C.J. Stroud can play more like he did as a rookie vs. his disappointing sophomore campaign, when he lined up behind the NFL's worst offensive line, according to my model. A new offensive coordinator and some positive regression should mean Stroud improves upon last year. However, if Houston struggles again, Jacksonville seems primed to take over. QB Trevor Lawrence has also been inconsistent during his young career, but playing in new coach Liam Coen's offense should do wonders for his efficiency. My model gives Houston a 45 percent chance to win the division, while Jacksonville lands at 26 percent. Indianapolis and Tennessee round out the bottom of the AFC South, with the Colts turning the page on the Anthony Richardson era and giving Daniel Jones the reins, while Tennessee hands the keys to first overall pick Cam Ward. My model is a bit more bullish on the Colts, but I'm not at all confident Jones can take care of the football. Don't be surprised if these teams are "contending" for top-10 picks. AFC West It's not shocking that the best division in the AFC boasts three coaches (Kansas City's Andy Reid, Denver's Sean Payton and the Las Vegas Raiders' Pete Carroll) with Super Bowl rings and a fourth (the Los Angeles Chargers' Jim Harbaugh) who has one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history. Kansas City remains the favorite to win the division, per my projections, which would be its 10th consecutive AFC West crown. That's right, the last quarterback to win this division who wasn't in a Chiefs uniform was Broncos-era Peyton Manning on his way to a Super Bowl title in 2015. The Chargers haven't won the division since 2009; the Raiders' drought goes back to 2002. The Chiefs are who they are at this point: the favorites until someone knocks them off the pedestal. Still, this division is strong, and it won't be an easy road for them. In fact, my model only has the Chiefs winning the division 60 percent of the time. Payton's Broncos are next up at 21 percent, as they look to build upon a wild-card berth in 2024, a stellar rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix and an elite defense. Harbaugh's Chargers are also coming off a playoff appearance last season, but the devastating preseason injury to offensive tackle Rashawn Slater gives my model some doubt about what their ceiling can be this year. QB Justin Herbert will need to take the next step if they're going to end their division title drought. Lastly, Carroll takes over a Raiders team that landed a big upgrade at QB (from what they had last year) in Geno Smith. The Raiders don't have the roster to contend quite yet, but if the offensive line can put together a solid season, this offense could be fun. Smith will likely pepper star tight end Brock Bowers with targets, while rookie top-10 pick Ashton Jeanty leads the way on the ground. How Mock's NFL Projection Model works My NFL Projection Model takes play-by-play data and creates offensive and defensive projections for each team. Using these projections, we can simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win, how often that team makes the playoffs, and the likelihood of winning the division and Super Bowl. (Photo of the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
