What went wrong in Russia?
How did a mix of geopolitical missteps, overreliance on fossil fuels, and global shifts toward renewables push Russia and its relationships with the West into long-term decline?
To what extent is the future of energy the big picture behind current global tensions?
We speak with Thane Gustafson, Georgetown University Political Science professor and leading energy expert, about his new book
The Perfect Storm: Russia's Failed Ambitions and the Future of Energy.
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RNZ News
6 hours ago
- RNZ News
What went wrong in Russia?
How did a mix of geopolitical missteps, overreliance on fossil fuels, and global shifts toward renewables push Russia and its relationships with the West into long-term decline? To what extent is the future of energy the big picture behind current global tensions? We speak with Thane Gustafson, Georgetown University Political Science professor and leading energy expert, about his new book The Perfect Storm: Russia's Failed Ambitions and the Future of Energy. Photo:
RNZ News
9 hours ago
- RNZ News
Christopher Luxon concludes China trip: 'No evidence' of collaboration with Russia, Iran and North Korea
Photo: Supplied / Dan Brunskill Christopher Luxon has wrapped up his trip to China, dismissing suggestions the superpower is working with Russia, Iran and North Korea to undermine the West - as alleged by NATO's top official. The prime minister says he also stressed to China's leaders that engagement in the Pacific must advance the region's interests, but refused to say whether the recent Cook Islands crisis was raised by either side. Speaking late Friday at New Zealand's embassy in Beijing, Luxon said he was leaving "very, very convinced" the bilateral relationship was in "a really strong place and in good heart". The comments followed a day of top-level meetings at the Great Hall of the People, capping a three-day visit to China, Luxon's first as prime minister. The prime minister and his officials now fly on to Belgium and then to the Netherlands, where he will attend the annual NATO summit. Photo: Supplied / Dan Brunskill Asked about NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte's recent warning that China is working together with Russia, Iran and North Korea, Luxon noted the "Dutch directness" - but indicated a "difference of opinion". "We haven't seen evidence of those four powers coordinating in a way, actively against the West," Luxon said. "We've seen bilateral associations, say, between Russia and North Korea, with respect to the war in Ukraine. We've seen bilateral arrangements between Iran and Russia as well, but we haven't seen evidence of a wholesale force." The rest of the delegation was now returning to New Zealand on the air force 757. Photo: Supplied / Dan Brunskill The talks came a day after revelations New Zealand suspended nearly $20 million in funding to the Cook Islands , after its agreements with China earlier this year. Luxon repeatedly refused to say whether that issue, or any other, was discussed behind closed doors. "We need to respect that they are private diplomatic conversations that need to be respected in the privacy of the sanctum." A media statement issued at the end of the trip said Luxon had raised "the need for engagement in the Pacific to take place in a manner which advances Pacific priorities". Pressed to clarify, Luxon said the concern had been well-canvassed: "Making sure that… all major powers that aren't part of the Pacific family… respect the centrality of the Pacific Island Forum." While none of China's leaders directly mentioned the Cook Islands crisis, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun earlier said China's cooperation with the Pacific nation "should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party". Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown on Friday labelled the funding pause "patronising" and pointed out he had not been consulted on any agreements New Zealand entered with China this trip . Luxon denied any double standard, but said he had "nothing more to add" on the subject. "I'm not going to get into it. I've spoken ad nauseam about the Cooks and the challenge." The prime minister's statement also said he raised "rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific" including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Photo: Supplied / Dan Brunskill Before speaking to reporters, the prime minister took part in an official welcome ceremony at the Great Hall and then a sit-down with his counterpart, Premier Li Qiang. In opening remarks, Li spoke of global turbulence and the need for "mutually beneficial cooperation". He said he had been "deeply impressed" by Luxon's friendship and hospitality during his 2024 visit to Wellington. In response, Luxon said the international challenges made ongoing dialogue more important "even where we differ". The meeting ended with the signing of 11 agreements, promising cooperation in areas including customs, food safety, and tourism. Luxon - and the wider business delegation - then stayed on for a banquet dinner at the Great Hall. Earlier on Friday, Xi said the bilateral relationship had experienced "many ups and downs" but remained respectful and at the forefront of China's Western ties. Luxon meanwhile described the bilateral relationship as "long-standing" and of "great consequence" to New Zealand. "The world looks to China as a major global power to play a constructive role in addressing many of the challenges that are facing us all," he said. Speaking to RNZ before departure, Luxon said he had established "good rapport" with both leaders during their previous meetings. The prime minister last met Xi in November at the APEC summit in Peru . At the time, Luxon characterised their conversation as "warm, positive and constructive" but noted clear differences over the AUKUS defence pact and missile testing in the Pacific. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
11 hours ago
- RNZ News
Who are Iran's allies? Would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?
By Ali Mamouri of Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign a strategic partnership treaty during a ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on 17 January, 2025. Photo: AFP / SPUTNIK / VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV Analysis - As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic. While considering a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran's supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him "an easy target". He has demanded "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear programme. As the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid? Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure. This so-called 'axis of resistance' includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran's influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, before it was toppled last year. These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement. However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network. Hezbollah - once Iran's most powerful non-state ally - has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon, and the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled, following the fall of Assad's regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region. That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen. The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have a similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen. Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran - as the region's only Shiite-led state - religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region. For instance, the PMF could launch attacks on the 2500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata'ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF's more hardline factions, promised to do so. "If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation." Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil supply flows. Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan - the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal. For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel's actions in Gaza. In a sign of Pakistan's importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country's army chief in Washington, as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour. Pakistan's leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran's president "unwavering solidarity" in the "face of Israel's unprovoked aggression" and Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said, in an interview, Israel would "think many times before taking on Pakistan". Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Photo: AFP These statements signal a firm stance, without explicitly committing to intervention. Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically, before the violence spirals into a broader regional war. In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations. These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries - including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel - have jointly condemned Israel's actions and urged de-escalation. It's unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US. Iran's key global allies - Russia and China - have also condemned Israel's strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council. However, neither power appears willing - at least for now - to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran, or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US. Theoretically, this could change, if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran's stability. This is due to Iran's longstanding 'Look East' policy, and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy. However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly. Moscow stayed on the sidelines, when Assad's regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia's closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn't want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration. China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. * Ali Mamouri is a Research Fellow of Middle East Studies at Deakin University. This story first appeared on The Conversation .
