Hell hath no fury like Donald Trump scorned
Has Donald Trump got it in for India? He's slapped 50% tariffs, he's suspended trade talks till the tariff dispute is resolved, he says he doesn't care if India's 'dead economy' sinks and Peter Navarro, his trade advisor, has said India is threatening America's national security by buying Russian oil. Worst of all, Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, has revealed that secondary tariffs on India could increase if Trump's talks with Putin fail. He also wants Europe to impose its own secondary tariffs. Does all of this suggest India has fallen out of America's favour?
There is a view that Trump is using India to send a message to China and Russia. It's not a comforting one. It means we're collateral damage and he doesn't really care what happens to us.
On the other hand — and this is equally galling — Trump seems to have fallen in love with Pakistan. He's only imposed 19% tariffs, his government considers Islamabad a 'phenomenal partner' in the fight against counter-terrorism — last week it lauded Pakistan's 'continued successes in containing terrorist entities' — he invited Field Marshal Asim Munir for lunch and wants to help Pakistan prospect for oil. In fact, Trump has taunted India with the tease that Pakistan could one day sell oil to Delhi. So, is Pakistan the new belle of the ball?
Let's focus on the issue of Russian oil, both because it rankles with Delhi but also because Trump has made it clear that until it's resolved there'll be no trade negotiations. In fact, Bessent has threatened further penalties.
The truth is the Biden Administration encouraged India to buy Russian oil. In May 2024, this is what Eric Garcetti, the American ambassador in Delhi, said: 'Actually, they (India) bought Russian oil because we (the US) wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap … because as a commodity we didn't want oil prices going up and they fulfilled that.' Today Trump is deliberately ignoring his predecessor's policy and blaming India instead.
Secondly, Trump is also being hypocritical. America continues to import palladium, uranium hexafluoride, fertilisers and chemicals from Russia and reports indicate that in the last six months the amount imported has increased substantially compared to last year. So, if America can import from Russia, why can't India?
Thirdly — and this hints at Trump's real intentions — there's another double standard. He has not threatened China and Turkey, the largest and third largest importers of Russian oil. Nor Hungary and Slovakia, two European and Nato countries that import Russian oil. And he's ignored the fact that Japan has started to do so from June this year. In fact, he's just extended the trade truce with China for another 90 days. Clearly his wrath is single-mindedly directed at Delhi.
There is, however, another equally worrying aspect of the problem. Does Trump's attitude and behaviour suggest Quad has lost its utility in his eyes? If it has, where does America's Indo-Pacific strategy stand? It brought great comfort to India vis-à-vis our problems with China. If Trump is no longer committed to it, that will create worrying concerns for us.
Whether Trump reaches an economic deal with China is hard to predict but probably likely because he's already talking of a summit with Xi Jinping. The question is, will the deal also presage a better political understanding of China? More space for Beijing's regional ambitions? In that event, will India continue to have US support over our border dispute with China?
The biggest problem is what can we do about this? The truthful answer is very little. There's nothing we export to America that America can't do without. China has rare earth minerals and metals. We don't. Our leverage is very limited.
Our only hope is a Putin-Trump deal on Ukraine which could lead to the secondary sanctions being lifted. Scott Bessent's comments suggest the White House has India in its sights if they aren't. Hell, it seems, hath no fury like a Trump scorned!
Karan Thapar is the author of Devil's Advocate: The Untold Story. The views expressed are personal.
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