Editorial: New parties' upper house election surge deals major setback to Japan's ruling LDP

The Mainichi

21-07-2025

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has once again been dealt a resounding "no" from voters in Japan. This result reflects a surge of public frustration with a political system unable to offer solutions to the nation's growing anxieties about the future.
In the July 20 House of Councillors election, both the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Sanseito made significant gains, while the LDP lost a substantial number of seats. The LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, also struggled.
Following last year's House of Representatives election, this marks a second consecutive national election defeat for the administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Even after about 10 months in office, his Cabinet has failed to regain public trust. The prime minister bears a heavy responsibility.
Although the LDP remains the largest party in the upper house, calls for Ishiba's resignation from within the party are now inevitable, despite his stated intention to stay on.
Ishiba cannot escape responsibility
This defeat has exposed the LDP's political structure as suffering from institutional fatigue. For years, the party maintained its majority by reflecting the interests of industry groups in policy in exchange for votes and funding. But as these support centers have weakened, the LDP has become less able to take in the public's will.
Komeito, which has participated in the ruling coalition for a quarter-century and helped bolster the government's organizational strength, is also clearly in decline.
Long-term economic stagnation has widened inequality, and poverty has become a serious problem. With the population aging and shrinking, the sustainability of the social security system is in doubt. Despite widespread public dissatisfaction, the LDP-Komeito coalition has failed to chart a path toward resolving these issues.
On the issue of "money in politics," the LDP has remained reluctant to pursue fundamental reforms such as banning corporate and organizational donations. This has only deepened public distrust in politics.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan failed to make a strong impression or become a true receptacle for protest votes. While it performed steadily in single-seat districts where opposition parties unified behind single candidates, it struggled to gain traction in the proportional representation vote.
It was the new parties that made the biggest gains by channeling public dissatisfaction with the political status quo.
The DPFP maintained the momentum it gained by quadrupling its seats in the previous lower house election. Its campaign focused on "a summer of higher take-home pay," calling for raising the income tax threshold to 1.78 million yen (about $12,000) and cutting the consumption tax.
Sanseito, running on a "Japanese First" slogan, pledged to restrict the acceptance of foreign nationals. Since the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June, it has rapidly expanded its support base among young people and unaffiliated voters.
Globally, populist political forces are gaining ground among those left behind by globalization. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has rallied support by promising to revive manufacturing through high tariffs, is emblematic of this trend. In Europe, parties calling for tougher immigration controls are also on the rise.
In Japan's upper house election, too, many parties sought to win support by promising large tax cuts and stricter immigration policies. These moves were amplified online, with parties competing over tax cuts and cash handouts.
A path to stability
However, policies aimed solely at short-term popularity are fraught with risk.
Measures to counter rising prices are necessary. But if the consumption tax is cut without securing alternative funding, social security finances could be jeopardized, raising questions about fiscal sustainability.
When opposition parties appeared to be gaining during the campaign, concerns about fiscal deterioration led to a sell-off of government bonds, pushing long-term interest rates to their highest level in 17 years.
With the population shrinking, Japan will increasingly need to rely on foreign workers. If xenophobic sentiment grows, it will undermine efforts to build a society that respects diversity.
What is truly required of politics is wisdom to stabilize people's lives with a long-term perspective. It is not about chasing short-term gains or inciting dissatisfaction against the vulnerable and minorities.
This upper house election has further fragmented Japan's political landscape, and the public's preferred framework for government has yet to emerge. The LDP remains a minority in the lower house, and further political instability is likely.
With domestic and international challenges mounting, political paralysis must be prevented. Parties must avoid self-serving maneuvering and instead pursue constructive debate to find a new path forward.
Japanese politics stands at a major crossroads. Each party must sincerely strive to dispel the public's pent-up frustration and anxiety and restore trust by pursuing politics of a new form.