MENA partially shielded but not immune to new wave of global tariffs: StanChart Economist
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been partially shielded from the latest wave of global tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump. However, the region is not immune to the broader economic implications, according to Carla Slim, MENAP Economist at Standard Chartered. Slim made the remarks at Standard Chartered's Investment Dialogue in Bahrain yesterday, where senior executives and financial experts convened to discuss the evolving macroeconomic landscape, the future of treasury, and emerging investment frontiers.
The event opened with a timely discussion on the recently announced US tariffs, including the ongoing US–China trade tensions and their potential ripple effects across the MENA region. Experts noted that the tariffs – set at a baseline of 10% for the GCC, Egypt, and broader MENA – reflect existing US trade surpluses with these economies.
A 90-day pause announced on 9 April means that elevated tariffs on non-retaliatory countries will revert to the 10% baseline. While steel and aluminium tariffs remain in effect, they are expected to have a limited impact on the region including Bahrain.
Energy exports – including oil, gas, refined products, and critical minerals – which make up roughly half of MENA's exports to the US, are exempt from the new tariffs. Speaking to attendees, Slim said that with current oil prices around USD 65 per barrel, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman remain in a relatively comfortable fiscal position.
Carla Slim, MENAP Economist at Standard Chartered, said: 'The MENA region has been partially shielded from the latest wave of global tariffs, but not immune. While direct trade exposure to the US is limited, the indirect effects – from oil prices to FX risks – are far more consequential. Yet, this environment presents an opportunity for trade rerouting and deeper South–South integration, which could ultimately benefit the GCC's position as a global trade corridor.'
The dialogue also explored how MENA markets can capitalise on fast-growing trade links, including through initiatives such as the UAE's Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs), which were highlighted as key to enhancing resilience and regional integration.
The keynote address was delivered by Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of Standard Chartered MENAP, followed by a macroeconomic outlook from Slim and a segment by Mohamed Fairooz, SC Ventures Lead, Middle East and a session on sustainable finance by Abdulrahim Abdulhameed, Head of Sustainable Finance, MENAP.
Opening and closing the session in Bahrain, Dr. Boutros Klink, CEO, Standard Chartered Bahrain, said: 'As the first bank to establish operations in Bahrain, we remain committed to supporting the Kingdom's economic diversification journey. Events like this bring together global expertise and local insight, ensuring that Bahrain stays at the forefront of regional finance. By convening key voices and experts here, we look to drive critical conversations that connect global insights with local ambition and reinforce our role as a global connector'.
Standard Chartered remains dedicated to driving meaningful dialogue with stakeholders in Bahrain and across the MENA region to help shape the future of finance.
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