Rutte stuck the landing — after some turbulence

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NATO Secretary-General MARK RUTTE ultimately succeeded in his main missions to mollify President DONALD TRUMP and raise the alliance's defense spending ambitions at this week's NATO summit in the Netherlands. The journey there just wasn't as seamless as he had hoped.
For all of NATO's meticulous pre-summit planning to minimize potential conflict between alliance members, plenty of flashy moments still happened.
First, Trump demurred when asked about the U.S. commitment to common defense, saying it depended 'on your definition.' Those comments put frontline NATO members in the Baltics and Scandinavia in particular in a tough spot. Then, Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO shocked alliance members by throwing cold water on the prospect of more sanctions against Moscow; the night before, he privately told foreign counterparts the Senate would take up a harsh bipartisan sanctions bill against Moscow after it passes Trump's 'big, beautiful' spending bill.
Meanwhile, Rutte raised some eyebrows when he referred to Trump as 'daddy' when speaking to reporters. (Your Gen-Z host cringed when he heard that.)
And that's not even getting into the main source of discord in The Hague this week — Spain's continued protest of the defense spending increase. When asked about Madrid's defense spending tantrum, Trump said, 'We're going to make them pay twice as much,' suggesting that Spain could get hit with tariffs if it doesn't change course.
But Rutte still managed to get the alliance to agree to Trump's desired five percent of GDP spending target, and the U.S. also agreed to language restating that the alliance's commitment to common defense is 'ironclad.'
The Heritage Foundation's NILE GARDINER argued to NatSec Daily that the summit was a win for U.S. strategic interests and also showed Rutte's prowess in working with the president.
'It's a triumph for President Trump. But it's a very good summit as well for' Rutte, Gardiner said. 'He is, alongside Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI, right now the influential European figure in partnering with Trump.'
Of course, not everyone was thrilled with what they saw this week in The Hague. In a lengthy X post, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS ripped into Rutte and the summit outcomes, accusing the NATO chief of groveling before Trump and criticizing the president for making ambiguous statements on common defense. Landsbergis also wasn't impressed with the five percent commitment or the scant focus on Ukraine at this year's confab.
TORREY TAUSSIG, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Europe and NATO policy official at the Defense Department and National Security Council, told NatSec Daily that this summit was 'a moderate success.' And she said that compared to the 2018 one in Brussels, where Trump blasted Germany as a 'captive of Russia' and physically shoved other NATO leaders, it went well. Yet Taussig argues that in pleasing Trump, the alliance did sidestep important conversations — not just about Ukraine, but also about the alliance's relationship with Indo-Pacific partners and the threats posed by China.
'In that way, this summit actually sets the alliance back on strengthening its deterrence and defense to address these issues,' said Taussig. 'It wasn't a disappointment. I just think there's a lot of hard work and a lot of open questions that allies are going to have to address in the months and years ahead.'
The Inbox
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A MAJOR WORRY ABOUT MINORS: U.S. diplomats have grown alarmed by the possibility that the Trump administration's new social media visa vetting requirements could endanger minors, a State Department official tells Nahal.
The new standards direct consular officials to examine the social media accounts of people who apply for visas for all student and educational exchange programs. They also require that the foreigners applying for such visas make their social media accounts public, and there's no exceptions for age — so, for example, a 15-year-old applying for a visa to serve as a summer camp counselor in the U.S. would be required to make their account public.
In a virtual session today with STUART WILSON, a top official in State's consular affairs bureau, diplomats raised concerns that the requirement could expose minors to predators online. (Nahal saw screenshots of several diplomats' questions about this.) But Wilson said there would be no age-based exceptions and that a 'visa is not a right,' according to the State official, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
When asked for comment about the potential impact on minors, department spokespeople sent a statement that did not address that question but restated talking points about how the vetting process is intended to protect U.S. national security. Wilson did not respond to a request for comment.
DAMAGED ASSESSMENTS: Months? Years? Decades? The Trump administration and other parties are sending wildly mixed messages about exactly how far back U.S. airstrikes pushed Iran's nuclear program.
According to reports, a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency assessment concluded that the strikes had set back Iran's program by only a few months. That undercut the Trump administration's claim that the strikes had 'obliterated' the program. The White House stridently dismissed the DIA assessment, even issuing a statement attacking CNN, which broke the story, with the subject line: 'CNN Spews Fake News Based on Leaked Low-Confidence Intel.'
While at the NATO summit today, Trump said the Iran program was set back 'basically decades' and compared the situation to the end of World War II (an odd parallel given that the U.S. used nuclear weapons then, not tried to prevent their existence). Rubio, speaking to our own Dasha Burns, used more measured language, saying the damage was 'substantial' and that Iran is 'much further away' from obtaining a nuclear weapon than before the strikes. Israeli officials, meanwhile, weighed in and said Iran's program was set back 'years.'
The bottom line: No one really knows — probably not even the Iranians, who are still digging out the rubble. Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear program was intended for peaceful purposes, although U.S. officials have long been worried that it has the components and knowledge it needs to quickly weaponize its program.
Trump also said today that the U.S. and Iran would hold talks 'next week.' He offered few details but suggested he didn't expect the talks to produce a new nuclear agreement.
IRAN'S OTHER TARGETS: Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) is urging the Justice Department to re-up security protections for former Trump aides on Tehran's hit list, amid worries that Iran could still seek retribution for U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites.
'There were some terminations of protective details of people that were targeted for assassination by the Iranians because of the role they played in the first term,' Graham told Attorney General PAM BONDI during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday. 'I'd urge you to reconsider.'
Graham and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) have both called on Trump to reverse his decision in January to pull back protection for former officials under active threat from Iran. But Graham's comments Wednesday mark the first time he's revisited the issue since the U.S. and Iran clashed directly.
In the exchange with Bondi, Graham argued the threat from Iran remained 'pretty high' despite a shaky ceasefire deal with Israel reached Monday. He called out the threat to Trump's former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO, though at least four other senior Trump aides are also in Iran's crosshairs.
The U.S. intelligence community believes Iranian assassins are also after Trump's former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON, former Secretary of Defense MARK ESPER, former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff MARK MILLEY and the former special envoy to Iran BRIAN HOOK.
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Keystrokes
DANGER SIGNAL: Hackers suspected of having links to Russian military intelligence are reportedly using the Signal messaging app to deliver malware to Ukrainian government bodies.
Ukrainian cybersecurity officials have discovered that at least two new malware strains are being used in these attacks. One, called BeardShell, acts as a backdoor that can execute PowerShell scripts. The other, SlimAgent, involves capturing encrypted screenshots.
The use of Signal to deliver the malware is especially alarming because the encrypted app is so widely used.
The Complex
ANOTHER HEGSETH PURGE? Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH says the Pentagon is trying to hunt down who leaked the classified Defense Intelligence Agency report on damage from U.S. airstrikes in Iran, our own Paul McLeary reports from The Hague.
'We're doing a leak investigation with the FBI right now because this information is for internal purposes, battle damage assessments,' Hegseth said while at the NATO Summit today. He alleged media accounts of the assessment were spun 'to make the president look bad when this was an overwhelming success.'
Hegseth gave no details about the leak probe, but he did say the conclusions of the DIA assessment were categorized as 'low confidence.' It's consistent with Hegseth's pledge to root out leakers and disloyal figures within the Defense Department, in particular those who divulge sensitive intelligence assessments that could undermine the administration's public messaging.
On a related note, Axios' Marc Caputo reports that the Trump administration is looking to limit the amount of classified information it shares with Congress following the leak. Officials suggested that it may have happened because the assessment was posted late Monday to CAPNET, a system the administration uses to share classified information with Congress. 'Go figure: Almost as soon as we put the information on CAPNET, it leaks,' an administration official told Axios. 'There's no reason to do this again.'
On the Hill
NAVY BUDGET UNDERWATER: There are bipartisan worries in the Senate that the Navy's budget is falling short, our own Joe Gould reports (for Pros!).
Lawmakers are especially worried about increasing operational demands, delayed submarines and a dwindling missile stockpile. Navy Secretary JOHN PHELAN and acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. JAMES KILBY drew questions about these topics Tuesday from Senate budget appropriators, suggesting there's support in both parties to increase the Navy's budget in the coming year.
Top Senate Defense appropriator Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) joined Democrats and Appropriations Chair SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) in taking the officials to task.
'A fiscal '26 defense top line that doesn't keep pace with inflation, let alone with the pacing threat of [China], does not show that we're serious about the tasks that are before us,' McConnell said. 'Neither does pretending that one-time injections of funding are a substitute for consistent appropriation.'
Broadsides
DEMS GRILL LAKE OVER MEDIA CUTS: Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee took KARI LAKE, a senior Trump appointee, to task in a hearing today about cuts to the U.S. Agency for Global Media, including at Voice of America and Radio Free Asia.
Trump had asked Lake to implement his executive order in March that called for the agency to be 'eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.' That has reduced USAGM's workforce by 85 percent and slashed its outlets' broadcasting services.
'We should not be dismantling the agency that combats propaganda from the Chinese Communist Party, the Kremlin and Tehran. Especially now, we need to be able to have facts that counter Iranian media spin that is essential to America's long-term interests,' said Rep. GREG STANTON (D-Ariz.).
Rep. JULIE JOHNSON (D-Texas) brought a diagram to the hearing juxtaposing Lake's comments characterizing Voice of America as 'propaganda' with similar diatribes from the Chinese government.
But Lake defended her moves, asserting, for instance, that VOA was 'rotten to the core' and a 'crime scene.' She accused USAGM of giving its personnel 'high-level security access based on falsified documents and incomplete background checks, phony names, phony social security numbers.' She also alluded to an ongoing police investigation of 'a series of threatening phone calls' allegedly targeting an unnamed sitting member of Congress that originated from VOA.
GOP committee members praised Lake's cuts. 'USAGM embraced and regurgitated enemy propaganda. It became a mouthpiece for our adversaries, paid for again by your tax dollars, and we're here to say that the grift is over,' committee Chair Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) said.
Transitions
— NICHOLAS KASS, a former career intelligence official and Trump booster, will take over as acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, our own John Sakellariadis scoops.
— EDWARD 'BIG BALLS' CORISTINE, one of ELON MUSK's proteges in the Department of Government Efficiency who helped downsize or dismantle multiple agencies, has left the federal government, Wired reports.
What to Read
— Jennifer Kavanagh and Rosemary Kelanic, Foreign Affairs: The Real Obstacle to Peace With Iran
— Matteo Maillard, The Africa Report: Wagner's red room: How Russian mercenaries flaunt their crimes on Telegram
— Julian Zelizer, Foreign Policy: What Happened to the War Powers Act?
Tomorrow Today
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: The Future of NATO Defense, Resilience, and Allied Innovation
— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Assessing the Terror Threat Landscape in South and Central Asia and Examining Opportunities for Cooperation
— Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan
— Arab Center, 12 p.m.: The U.S. Role in Israel's War on Iran: Regional and Global Implications
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12:30 p.m.: Does the West Still Exist? Reflections on the NATO and G7 Summits
— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: The U.S., Iran and Israel: Can Crisis be Turned Into Opportunity?
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, whose battlefield assessments are always incomplete and confusing.