Airlines are circumventing Iranian airspace despite ceasefire
Travelers heading to the Gulf states and beyond can expect prolonged travel times if airlines continue to avoid Iranian airspace despite an Iran-Israel ceasefire.
On June 25, airspace was open throughout Iran and the Middle East, but flight-tracking app Flightradar24 showed that airlines, with very few exceptions, continued to circumnavigate Iran, opting instead to travel north over Turkey or south over Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Airlines that are most notably impacted include the Gulf carriers, especially Emirates and Qatar Airways, noted Ian Petchenik, Flightradar24 director of communications.
Air India is another impacted carrier. The airline briefly suspended all Europe and North America flying amid the Middle East conflict early last week. U.S. flights resumed on June 25, with Air India flying over Saudi Arabia instead of taking its normal northerly course over Iran. Air India already couldn't fly over Pakistan because that country closed its airspace to Indian carriers earlier this year.
U.S. carriers already weren't allowed to fly over Iran under a longstanding FAA directive. Under that same directive, foreign carriers operating codeshares with U.S. airlines also can't fly over Iran.
Additional flight times when connecting west with east via the southerly Egypt/Saudi Arabia route are typically 45 to 90 minutes, Petchenik said, depending upon the jet stream.
The large number of flight-path adjustments that airlines are taking to avoid Iran, which is more than twice the size of Texas, is leading to congestion across the northerly and southerly alternative routes. That's a concern, said Petchenik, but he added that air traffic control entities in the impacted regions seem to be handling the situation effectively.
John Grant, senior analyst for the airline data tracker OAG, said that the carriers now using the Egypt/Saudi Arabia alternative leave ample turn times on both ends of their routes, which affords them some flexibility.
"They appear to be keeping to schedule," Grant said.
Emirates delivered a similarly positive message. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar briefly closed their airspaces when Iran retaliated against the U.S. with a June 23 missile attack on the U.S.'s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
In a statement the following day, Emirates said that it had been able to quickly activate its contingency plan, and that only a few flights had longer flight paths due to airspace congestion.
Much less clear is the effect that the Iran-Israel/U.S. conflict will have on travel demand in the Middle East.
Tel Aviv airport resumed operations on Tuesday, though U.S. airline flights to Israel are suspended. So is United's Newark-Dubai service.
"It's too early to say if there are any changes in traveler sentiment to connect via the Middle East super hubs, but as the situation hopefully settles, those hubs are as good as any place to connect," Grant said.
On an Aviation Week podcast, executive editor of commercial aviation Jens Flottau said that a short-term demand dip across the region is to be expected. But he also noted that flyers tend to have short memories, and that demand would likely bounce back quickly if the situation in the Middle East becomes more secure.
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