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RIL Q1 Preview: Profit to see strong YoY growth led by retail, Jio, and O2C
The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results for the current financial year (Q1FY26) on July 18.
According to a Bloomberg poll, 18 analysts estimated consolidated revenues of ₹2.42 trillion (up 4.48 per cent year-on-year) and 7 forecast a net adjusted income of ₹20,059 crore (up 32 per cent Y-o-Y) for Q1FY26.
ICICI Securities projects a 15 per cent Y-o-Y rise in the oil-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated Ebitda and a 25 per cent jump in net profit. Retail earnings are expected to grow 18 per cent, while Jio's Ebitda may increase 17 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.7 per cent sequentially, the brokerage said.
In the previous quarter, RIL reported a consolidated net profit of ₹19,407 crore, up nearly 2.4 per cent Y-o-Y. The company's revenue from operations rose to Rs 2.6 trillion from Rs 2.4 trillion recorded in January-March 2024.
Kotak Securities also expects a 15.4 per cent Y-o-Y rise in consolidated Ebitda, with 19-20 per cent growth in the O2C, digital, and retail segments. Jio's Ebitda is seen rising 4.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), helped by benefits from the July 2024 tariff hike and a better margin profile, with average revenue per user (ARPU) estimated at ₹209.5, Kotak noted. Retail Ebitda is forecast to grow around 21 per cent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, JM Financial expects RIL to post a modest 2.4 per cent Q-o-Q rise in consolidated Ebitda for the first quarter of FY26.
The growth is likely to be led by a 3.5 per cent sequential increase in digital Ebitda, supported by strong subscriber additions and higher ARPU, it said. While the O2C segment is expected to remain largely flat Q-o-Q, retail Ebitda could see a healthy 15 per cent rise Y-o-Y, JM Financial said.
The brokerage has maintained a 'Buy' rating on RIL as it expects the company to deliver a robust 15-20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share (EPS) over the next three to five years. Jio's ARPU is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 13 per cent between FY25 and FY28.
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