Tigers at Pirates Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for July 23
The Pirates are going for the sweep after taking games 1 and 2, 3-0 and 8-5. Detroit will toss Melton on the mound, who makes his first career start. The Tigers' five runs in Tuesday's games was more than the four combined runs scored in the four previous outings.
Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Tigers at Pirates
Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Time: 12:35PM EST
Site: PNC Park
City: Pittsburgh, PA
Network/Streaming: FDSNDT, SNP
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Odds for the Tigers at the Pirates
The latest odds as of Wednesday:
Moneyline: Tigers (-154), Pirates (+128)
Spread: Tigers -1.5
Total: 8.0 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Tigers at Pirates
Pitching matchup for July 23, 2025: Troy Melton vs. Bailey Falter
Tigers: Troy Melton, (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Last outing: First career start Pirates: Bailey Falter, (6-5, 4.00 ERA)
Last outing: 9.00 ERA, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 1 Walks, and 2 Strikeouts
Tigers: Troy Melton, (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Last outing: First career start
Pirates: Bailey Falter, (6-5, 4.00 ERA)
Last outing: 9.00 ERA, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 1 Walks, and 2 Strikeouts
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Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Tigers and the Pirates
'Entering the All-Star break, Skenes had a 1.19 ERA in career wins compared to a 2.39 ERA in losses or non-decisions, so either way, he hasn't been the Buccos' problem since he arrived. This year alone, Skenes has allowed 27 runs over 20 starts and the Pirates have lost 11 of those 20 games!
Pittsburgh's offense has scored the fewest runs in not just the NL, but all of baseball — even the Rockies and White Sox. For more context, the Phillies have scored 112 more runs than the Pirates in one less game.
Both Skenes and Wheeler will be dominant in the second-half, I have no doubts, but Skenes could post a sub 2.00 ERA this season (was doing so through 19 starts), sub .200 OBA, and still have a losing record, which on surface level makes no sense.
Despite how it looks or sounds, I think what Skenes is doing weighs more impressive, challenging, and deserving than what Wheeler is doing.'
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday's game between the Tigers and the Pirates:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Detroit Tigers on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Pittsburgh Pirates at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Tigers at Pirates
The Tigers have won 12 of their last 20 away games against teams with losing records
The Under is 4-1 in the Tigers' last 5 road games
Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus Detroit this season
Pittsburgh is 0-3 in Falter's last three starts
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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