AI-powered inflation control falls under scrutiny
During the past year or so, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has simplified tasks which earlier would take hours or even days to reach completion. From devising the perfect essay prompt to selecting the classiest home décor, a wide range of tasks requiring considerable human brain power have become fairly easy. However, despite its convenience, what AI should not be trusted with is the gatekeeping of inflation, which has a reputation of crippling millions across the country.
Reportedly, the Punjab government's Price Control and Commodities Management Department has decided to control inflation through the use of Artificial Intelligence. With 40 years of data, this system will work under the Supply Management System, under which district-wise data on monthly and annual food requirements, local production of vegetables, fruits, and wheat and wholesale and retail prices will be fed into the software. With the help of this data, AI will apparently generate estimates through various graphics to determine which food items may be in short supply in each district during the next three months and what steps should be taken to address the shortage.
While this system might appear fancy to laymen, Professor Mumtaz Anwar Chaudhry, Dean at the Faculty of Business Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Punjab shared his concerns over the feasibility of using AI for controlling inflation. 'Although the numbers of the Bureau of Statistics fluctuate, the inflation rate has invariably increased during the past twenty years. However, the government understates this increase in proportion to the population. Therefore, before controlling inflation through AI, the government should employ the technology for investigating the root causes of inflation,' claimed Chaudhry.
According to the Bureau of Statistics (BOS), the overall inflation rate in the fiscal year 2020-21 was recorded at 8.90 per cent. In the fiscal year 2021-22, the inflation rate was recorded at 12.09 per cent, which sharply increased to 29.04 per cent in the fiscal year 2022-23. During the following financial year 2023-24, the inflation rate reduced to 23.88 per cent. As per the claims of BOS, the inflation rate has started to drop for the current fiscal year 2024-25. In July 2024 alone, double digit inflation of 11.09 was recorded for one month before dropping to 1.52 per cent till February. Just recently, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif made headlines when he applauded the efforts of his government in bringing down the inflation rate to a record low of 0.7 per cent.
However, Chaudhry opined that the increase in the rate of inflation could not be stopped by focusing on numbers alone since they kept varying on a monthly basis. 'The government will have to divert its attention from statistics and work at the grassroots level to address the root causes of inflation,' he implored.
On the other hand, Former Secretary of the Price Control and Commodities Management Department, Ajmal Bhatti, believed that AI has revolutionized the world. 'Therefore, a commodity price management system, powered by AI, has been created. We will receive a notification of the rate that will be fixed in any market. This has also helped us carry out a comparative review of the prices of commodities. We have deployed more than 500 price monitors, allowing us to receive rates from more than 15,000 locations across the province on a daily basis,' said Bhatti.
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