Reviewing Thailand and Cambodia's July 2025 Border Skirmish
The Diplomat's Asia Geopolitics podcast host Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) is joined by Sebastian Strangio to discuss the recent fighting between Thailand and Cambodia.
Click the play button above to listen. If you're an iOS or Mac user, you can also subscribe to The Diplomat's Asia Geopolitics podcast on iTunes here; if you use Windows or Android, you can subscribe on Google Play here, or on Spotify here.
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Asahi Shimbun
12 hours ago
- Asahi Shimbun
Simulated Chinese blockade of Taiwan reveals Singapore as lifeline
A retired military tank is seen on the beach with China in the background in Kinmen, Taiwan, on Dec. 20, 2023. (REUTERS) HONG KONG/TAIPEI--The exercise presented a fraught scenario: China's military had blockaded Taiwan by air and sea, and Southeast Asian countries were grappling with how to evacuate as many as 1 million of their nationals trapped on the besieged island. Over two days in April at a Singapore hotel, some 40 participants and observers in the war game, including serving and retired Asia-Pacific officials and military officers, as well as security scholars, simulated their responses to the unfolding crisis, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Hours ticked by as some players weighed unified action through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while others reached out to the mock U.S., Chinese and Japanese delegates to negotiate special air and sea corridors to extract foreign nationals. Eventually, the people said, a stark conclusion emerged: The Southeast Asian states needed a Singaporean airlift to have a chance of evacuating their people. 'Nothing was moving until the Singaporeans stepped in at the 11th hour,' said one participant in the event at the Jen Singapore Tanglin hotel. 'They had found a way of getting their own people out, and offered to get others out, too.' Reflecting its discreet and decades-old security presence inside Taiwan, where its forces train, Singapore was able to leverage access to airfields and aircraft, the person said. But the exercise ended before any detailed discussion of how Singapore had reached a deal with China to secure an evacuation route through the blockade, or how precisely it would work, three of the people told Reuters. The previously unreported exercise comes amid an escalating battle between the U.S. and China for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a rare window into contingency planning over Taiwan, which some Asian and Western military attaches and security analysts say is becoming increasingly necessary because an assault on the island by Beijing could draw in the U.S. and imperil other countries. While the scenario didn't reflect official policies, participants playing the roles of foreign and defense ministers worked from the known positions of at least nine governments depicted in the simulation, said the four people, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Besides Singapore, China, Taiwan and the U.S., the rest included Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, they said. Southeast Asians account for about 94% of the almost 1 million foreign nationals resident in Taiwan, according to Taiwan's National Immigration Agency. Indonesians, Vietnamese and Filipinos make up the vast majority of those foreigners, with comparatively small numbers of Japanese and Americans. Singapore's defense ministry said it wasn't involved in the 'workshop' and none of its officials attended in any capacity. Neither the defense nor foreign ministries addressed Reuters questions about Singapore's military presence in Taiwan and planning for Taiwan conflict scenarios, including evacuations. China's foreign ministry said it had 'always resolutely opposed countries with whom it has diplomatic relations having any form of official relations with the Taiwan region, including military dialogue and cooperation,' adding that it wasn't aware of the circumstances of the exercise. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which organized the exercise, told Reuters in a statement that participants had attended in their private capacities, and that it could not comment on 'discussions, attendees, or any other elements.' Taiwan's defense ministry and the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta didn't respond to questions. A Pentagon official said they were not aware of any official participation in the event by the U.S. Defense Department. 'We routinely engage with allies and partners to ensure readiness for a range of contingencies, but it would be inappropriate to discuss operational planning or hypothetical evacuation scenarios,' the official said. Weeks after the exercise, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a security conference in Singapore that the threat of China using force to take Taiwan was 'imminent' amid intensifying air and naval operations around the island by the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army. Chinese officials have said Hegseth and other Trump administration officials are playing up 'the so-called China threat,' with the Chinese embassy in Singapore saying his speech was 'steeped in provocations and instigation.' China claims Taiwan as its territory and has never renounced the use of force to seize it. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te and his government strongly object to China's sovereignty claims, saying it is up to the island's people to decide their future. Drew Thompson, a Singapore-based security scholar, said it was vital for Southeast Asian countries to move beyond war games and contingency discussions to build meaningful, unofficial ties with Taiwan, particularly its military. These countries have diplomatic ties with Beijing and don't officially recognize Taipei. 'The big takeaway here is that a plan is one thing but you need the access and the relationships to put it into play,' said Thompson, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who wasn't involved in the exercise. 'Singapore has long had these ties, the Philippines is building them, but it remains an open question whether the other countries in Southeast Asia have the unofficial networks in place to meaningfully engage with Taiwan in a conflict.' The Philippines foreign ministry told Reuters the government has contingency plans for a Taiwan emergency, without offering specifics. It added that Manila has 'legitimate interest in Taiwan due to geographic proximity and the presence of Filipino nationals there.' The foreign ministries of Indonesia and Vietnam didn't respond to requests for comment. Japan's defense ministry declined to comment. 'USEFUL PERCH' Given recent drills in which Chinese vessels encircled Taiwan, some military attaches and analysts say any attempt by Beijing to seize the island could start with a blockade, which would be considered an act of war under international law. The risks are felt acutely in Singapore, a financial and shipping hub that hosts U.S. Navy ships and surveillance aircraft yet maintains strong cultural, diplomatic and economic ties with China. Singaporean forces have conducted military training in Taiwan since 1975, under an arrangement known as Project Starlight. The presence is seldom publicly acknowledged by officials in Singapore, which does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But it remains important to Singapore's defense forces, according to seven diplomats and security scholars familiar with the matter. Singapore rotates up to 3,000 infantry troops and commandos annually through three training camps in southern Taiwan, according to five of the seven people, where the mountains and jungles replicate conditions found on the Malay Peninsula. 'It gives Singapore a useful perch from which to watch both the Taiwan Strait and the top part of the South China Sea,' said one Western security official. China has long objected to the arrangement. But Singapore has held fast, in part because a withdrawal would represent a change to the delicate strategic and diplomatic balance around Taiwan, three of the scholars told Reuters. Singapore's forces also train regularly in Australia, France, Brunei and the U.S. The city-state has the best-equipped military in Southeast Asia, according to an annual survey of the world's armed forces produced by the IISS. Yet an outbreak of war in Taiwan could trap Singapore's forces there or render them bargaining chips that could give China military and diplomatic leverage over Singapore, according to some analysts and military attaches. In a conflict, Southeast Asian governments would face an arduous task in evacuating their nationals from Taiwan, Ngeow Chow Bing, a Malaysia-based security scholar, wrote in a study published last year by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But, Ngeow wrote, Beijing has clear incentives to ensure that most, if not all, ASEAN members remain neutral. 'If Beijing cares how it is perceived in Southeast Asia during a Taiwan crisis, it follows that Beijing would view the evacuation of Southeast Asian citizens as crucial for its own diplomatic posture,' he added.
The Diplomat
14 hours ago
- The Diplomat
Cambodia, Thailand Agree to New Measures to Reinforce Border Ceasefire
The two sides have reaffirmed their commitment to the July 28 ceasefire and agreed to allow ASEAN observers to monitor the situation. Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to a 13-point plan to manage their ongoing border dispute, including an agreement to allow observers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to monitor the ceasefire that ended a fierce five-day border conflict last month. The agreement came as the two nations' General Border Committee (GBC) concluded four days of talks in Kuala Lumpur aimed at thrashing out the terms of a ceasefire brokered by Malaysia on July 28. According to a joint statement of the GBC, signed by Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha and Thailand's acting Defense Minister Nattaphon Narkphanit, the two sides agree to a ceasefire involving all types of weapons, including attacks on civilians and civilian objects and military objectives of either side, in all cases and all areas.' They have agreed to a freeze on border troop movements and patrols, not to reinforce their positions along the border, and 'not to undertake provocative actions that may escalate tensions.' Both sides agreed to maintain an open line of communication between the defense chiefs of both countries and the chief of the defense force level. Most significantly, each country will set up its own interim observer team comprised of defense officials from ASEAN member states and coordinated by the current chair, Malaysia, pending the deployment of a formal ASEAN Observer Team from the Southeast Asian bloc. The issue was discussed by Tea Seiha and Nattaphon Narkphanit during an earlier meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who said in a Facebook post that the proposed ASEAN observers would help 'support monitoring efforts, humanitarian assistance and medical coordination at the border.' He added, 'Malaysia will continue to support this process in the belief that lasting peace is only possible through dialogue, mutual respect and genuine friendship.' The advance of the ceasefire agreement is welcome, given the tensions that still exist between the countries following last month's conflict, which killed at least 43 people and displaced more than 300,000 on both sides of the border. Despite agreeing to a ceasefire under Malaysian, Chinese, and (particularly) U.S. pressure on July 28, the two sides have continued to trade invective, each accusing the other of violating the ceasefire. Both sides have also trafficked in false or misleading news about the border conflict, which has eroded trust further. One area of uncertainty concerns the 18 Cambodian soldiers who were captured by Thai forces in the hours after the ceasefire went into effect. Previously, Bangkok announced that it would hold them as prisoners of war until the formal cessation of hostilities. This was reiterated by the GBC agreement, which stated that 'captured soldiers shall be immediately released and repatriated after the cessation of active hostilities in accordance with Article 118 of the Third Geneva Convention of 1949 and Rule 128 (A) of the Customary International Humanitarian Law.' The statement said that the GBC will meet again within a month and said both sides would also 'agree to refrain from disseminating false information or fake news in order to de-escalate tensions, mitigate negative public sentiment, and foster an environment conducive to peaceful dialogue.' Speaking to reporters after the agreement, Tea Seiha said that the steps laid out in the agreement 'are life-saving measures and lay groundwork for restoring confidence, trust, and normalcy between our two countries.' Natthaphon added that 'in order for our discussions today to result in concrete outcomes, both sides needed to show cooperation and sincerity.' Despite these comments, it remains to be seen whether both sides are genuinely committed to restoring stability at the border and ending the spiral of mutual mistrust that has brought Thai-Cambodian relations to the lowest point since at least the 2008-2011 Preah Vihear crisis. Domestic political constituencies in both nations have benefited from (and arguably helped encourage) the conflict, and both governments, particularly Thailand's, will remain under pressure to take a hard line on border issues. Edgard Kagan, the U.S. ambassador to Malaysia, who attended yesterday's meeting as an observer, told the press that the agreement was just one step towards lasting peace. 'We have to be honest and say that there is still a very high level of tension, there's a high level of distrust,' he said, as per the AFP news agency. 'We think that it is going to be important for both sides to show strong commitment at the highest levels, and that it is messaged clearly down to the soldiers and policemen who are on the border.' Even then, a comprehensive resolution of the border dispute, which has its origins in disagreements over Franco-Siamese border treaties signed in 1904 and 1907, remains a remote prospect. Like most border disputes, the Cambodia-Thailand conflict is about much more than territory: it touches on deep questions of national identity for Thais and Cambodians and functions as an important currency of domestic political legitimation in both countries. In this context, any serious attempt to delimit the disputed parts of the border will leave both governments vulnerable to claims that they are failing to defend the national interest. This is something that neither government can countenance if it wants to retain any degree of domestic legitimacy. In this case, about the best that can be expected in the immediate term is a return to the status quo ante.
The Diplomat
3 days ago
- The Diplomat
Malaysia Agreed to $150B in Purchases as Part of US Tariff Deal: Minister
Despite the White House's release of updated tariff figures last week, there is much still to be negotiated between Washington and its trade partners. Late last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates for 67 nations, including nine from Southeast Asia, which are set to come into effect on August 7. However, given the unpredictability of the Trump administration and the speed of the negotiations that preceded last week's announcement, there is a lot that we don't know about these figures, and how they will affect each nation's trade with the U.S. For instance, while most Southeast Asian nations succeeded in negotiating a reduction in the tariff rate to around 19-20 percent, it still remains unclear specifically what each agreed to. It is also unclear what exemptions might apply to their major exports to the U.S. and whether other geopolitical conditions may have been slipped into the trade discussions. As James Guild wrote recently for The Diplomat regarding the deals with Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, which were announced prior to last week's announcement, 'many important details are missing. In fact, many of the countries on the other side of these deals quickly made it known they viewed things a bit differently than President Trump.' Yet, as the days go by, further details are emerging about what each nation put on the table during the rapid trade negotiations with the Trump team. Speaking to parliament yesterday, Malaysia's trade minister offered some details about how his nation managed to secure a reduction in its tariff, from 25 percent to 19 percent. In comments to parliament, Reuters reported that Tengku Zafrul Aziz said that Malaysian negotiators have agreed to spend up to $150 billion over the next five years to buy equipment from U.S. multinationals, in order to address the trade imbalance between the two countries. This includes agreements for state energy firm Petroliam Nasional Berhad to buy liquefied natural gas worth $3.4 billion a year. As Reuters reported, Malaysia 'will also commit to $70 billion in cross-border investments in the United States over the next five years.' He confirmed that Malaysia had also agreed to remove its tariffs on more than 98 percent of U.S. goods. Last year, Malaysia had a trade surplus of around $24.9 billion with the U.S., according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Tengku Zafrul said that the two countries were finalizing a joint statement covering the commitments that had been made, which also included tariff exemptions that Malaysia managed to secure on its pharmaceutical products and semiconductor exports to the U.S. In his address to parliament, the minister warned that semiconductor chips may still be subject to additional tariffs under U.S. tariffs on the grounds of national security. 'Therefore, we need to continue to be prepared for any possible additional tariffs imposed on the semiconductor industry,' he said. He added that the country was seeking similar exemptions for important raw materials, including cocoa, rubber, and palm oil, but that these had not yet been finalized. While Tengku Zafrul's comments bring some clarity to Malaysia's situation, it also highlights the challenge of negotiating trade agreements, which often take years of negotiations, on such a short time scale. Another area of considerable uncertainty that has been kicked down the road involves transshipped goods. Trump's tariff announcement included a blanket 40 percent tariff on any goods deemed to have originated in China. Like much else, it is still unclear how (and by whom) the provenance of goods will be established and verified. Lurking behind the uncertainty about the specifics of the deal, there is the larger uncertainty about whether the tariffs will even be in place in a month, a year, or a decade's time. One writer in Free Malaysia Today argued today that Malaysian policymakers should not panic, assuming that the tariffs are 'an assertive, yet unstable, use of executive power' that might not last. 'The current tariff wave is not a permanent reordering of trade architecture,' the op-ed argued, 'it is a phase of legal and political experimentation.' As such, the article argued that Malaysia should avoid making knee-jerk concessions to Trump. However long the tariffs are in effect, the short-term 'wins' that Trump has secured through the brute leveraging of U.S. economic power will likely be outweighed by the long-term drain of U.S. influence, as Southeast Asian governments seek out more predictable and 'like-minded' trade partners.
