Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions
Season series: First meeting; Phils won 3-0 last year
The Phils took 2 of 3 from the Baltimore Orioles this week, losing the finale 5-1 Wednesday. SS Trea Turner went 3-for-4 with an RBI. The next 3 hitters went 1-for-12 with 6 K's. The Phils are 5-3 in their last 8 games, but they've been treading water at 16-14 in the last 30. They're 2 1/2 games up in the NL East.
The Rangers took 2 of 3 from the flailing New York Yankees. The latest was a 3-2 loss Wednesday. Their offense is going through a dry spell. DH Adolis Garcia (.204-2-6) has struck out 16 times in 54 at-bats the last 15 days. SS Corey Seager (.178) and 2B Marcus Semien (.222) are also scuffling. They're still just 4 1/2 games out in the AL West.
Phillies at Rangers projected starters
LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Sanchez (10-3, 2.40 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 over 138 2/3 innings.
Kelly (9-6, 3.22 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 134 1/3 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Rangers
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Phillies at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.
Phillies at Rangers picks and predictions
Phillies 4, Rangers 3
Moneyline
The Rangers are a great home team at 36-21, but they are just 10-19 against left-handed starters. The Phillies have been a bit better recently and are being pushed in the division. I expect a close game, and Sanchez has a 1.59 ERA in his last 7 starts. That's what moves the needle for me to take PHILLIES (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
I'm going to take a small risk here, but I think it's one that has upside on the price. Take TREA TURNER OVER 0.5 RUNS SCORED (+105). Here's why: he's 12-for-30 (.400) lifetime against Kelly. He's third in the sport with 132 hits and tied for 13th with 73 runs scored. The heart of the order is intact, and I'm a little surprised there's plus-money available on this one.
Over/Under
It's expected to be a 99-degree evening with a 10-mph breeze coming in from left-center. So you're going to need to smoke the ball to get it out. I'm projecting a push here, and I'm just going to AVOID it altogether.
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