Mets vs. Braves prediction: MLB Wednesday pick, best bet, odds
The Mets' offense gets a chance to wake up on Wednesday against a familiar face.
Carlos Carrasco, who spent three years in Queens from 2021-23, will take the mound for the Braves amid perhaps the worst season of his 16-year big league career.
The 38-year-old right-hander has a 6.18 ERA in 10 games (eight starts) this season, and he's not fooling any hitters at all.
Batters are hitting .302/.350/.527 against Carrasco with a 10.6 percent barrel rate and a 39.7 percent hard-hit rate.
Unsurprisingly, Carrasco has struggled with the long ball.
He's given up nine home runs across 43 ⅔ innings, or 1.5 allowed per nine innings on the mound.
It's a trend that's plagued the veteran in recent years.
Carlos Carrasco #59 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 31, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Getty Images
Carrasco's 1.74 homers allowed per nine innings since 2023 are the fourth-highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched over that period.
I'm targeting Juan Soto to have a big game against the struggling Carrasco.
Soto snapped his power drought last week, hitting a home run in three straight games before logging another two-hit game on Sunday.
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He's already homered off Carrasco in the past, hitting a three-run dinger off of him in 2021 with the Nationals.
Let's see if Soto can help get the Mets back in the win column for the first time in over a week.
The plays: Juan Soto to hit a home run (+250, FanDuel) and to have more than 1.5 total bases (-105)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He's particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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