Trump's trade tariffs take U.S. imports, exports to near Covid-level event: 'Haven't seen anything like this since 2020'

CNBC

06-05-2025

An empty container ship of COSCO Shipping sails to a container terminal in Qingdao in east China's Shandong province Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
What began as a rapid drop in U.S. imports as shippers cut orders from manufacturing partners around the world has now extended into a nationwide export slump, with the U.S. agricultural sector and top farm products including soybeans, corn, and beef taking the hardest hit.
Latest trade data shows that a slide in U.S. exports to the world, and China in particular, that began in January now extends to nearly every U.S. port, according to trade tracker Vizion, which analyzed U.S. export container bookings for the five-week period before the tariffs began and the five weeks after the tariffs took effect.
The farming sector has been warning of a "crisis" and ports data is showing more evidence of lack of ability to move product out to global markets. Port of Oregon tops the list with a 51% decrease in exports, while Port of Tacoma, a large agricultural export port, has seen a 28% decrease. The port's top destinations for the corn, soybeans, and other ag exports include Japan, China, and South Korea.
Some ports have only seen a small exports decrease to date, such as the Port of Houston and Port of Seattle, at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. But what is clear, according to Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at Vizion, "is that nearly all of U.S. exports have taken a hit."
The trade data shows declines of over 17% at the Port of Los Angeles, while the Port of Savannah — the top U.S. port for exporting containerized agricultural goods in 2025 — is down 13%, and the Port of Norfolk is down 12%, according to Vizion.
The Port of Oakland also plays a significant role in exports as the leading port for international refrigerated goods. U.S. agricultural exports also leave Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Houston, and Seattle/ Tacoma.
The slide in exports is linked to the decline in containerships coming to the U.S., as businesses across the economy cancel manufacturing orders, sending Chinese factories and freight ships into retreat. U.S. imports continue to decline, with port data tracked by Vizion showing a 43% week-over-week drop in containers from the week of April 21 to the week of April 28.
"We haven't seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020," said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. "That means goods expected to arrive in the next 6 to 8 weeks simply won't. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions," he said. 'Lean' retail inventories ahead
Retailers have been urging consumers to buy sooner rather than later, and data from Bank of America Global Research suggests why that may be the right move. Its latest forecast shows that the number of inbound container ships to the Port of Los Angeles will see a sharp drop in May, with escalating trade disruptions between 15%-20% of U.S. container imports from Asia in the coming weeks.
In a note to clients, Bank of America warned that the ratio of retail inventories to monthly sales was not especially high, while at the same time, consumers have been buying ahead with fears stoked by the trade war and expectations of higher prices and lack of product choice.
Based on data Bank of America reviewed on retail payments to transportation and shipping companies, there has been no big ramp in inventories after the frontloading that occurred earlier this year, and supply disruptions may be looming.
"We think it is possible retail inventories may actually look 'lean' in coming months," the Bank of America report stated.
Many retailers only have one to two months of sales in inventory, it found, and any unforeseen demand or supply disruptions can quickly impact what goods retailers can offer and the prices charged, it concluded.
It is a pivotal time of the year for the holiday shopping season, when orders are typically being placed. The supply chain's tipping point — where holiday success is either locked in or left to chance — is June.
"Retailers that lock capacity now, especially in fast‑moving sectors like toys, consumer electronics, and fashion, give themselves the runway to fine‑tune assortments later without racing the clock," said Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding. "It isn't about pushing extra volume; it's about sequencing the flow — balancing ocean, air and intermodal options, building buffers for labor or weather‑related surprises, and using real‑time data to pivot if demand shifts," he said. "The brands that treat June as a strategic deadline, rather than a last‑minute scramble, will be the ones filling shelves, not chasing them when consumers start shopping in November," he added.
Captain Kipling Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, warned in a recent statement that the decrease in vessel arrivals and lighter container volumes coming to the U.S. will translated into excess capacity of labor, trucks, trains, and others in supply chain who "will be out of work because of the decline in cargo arrivals."
Only 14 ships arrived in the past three days, Louttit noted, and only 10 are scheduled to arrive over the next 3 days. A "normal" level of activity in a three-day period would be 17 ships.
Hawaii-based liner operator and shipowner Matson lowered its 2025 outlook on Monday, citing tariffs, global trade regulatory measures, the trajectory of the U.S. economy and other geopolitical issues.
Matson, which offers an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, reported that since the tariffs were implemented in April, container volume for the company has declined approximately 30% year over year.
"Coupled with limited visibility to our container demand, we expect container volume and average rates in the second quarter to be lower year over year," said Matt Cox, Matson CEO, on its earnings call. "At the moment, it's difficult to know if these lower volume levels are transitory or will persist for a longer time in 2025 and the duration of this lower demand period will likely depend on active negotiations taking place across the supply chain, and the timing of potential amendments to the tariffs," he said.
Cox said the company is working with Asia transshipment partners as its customers look at options to diversify and grow their manufacturing locations. "Many of our customers moved to a 'China plus one' strategy a few years ago to diversify their operations, and we expect this trend to continue," he said. "We will continue to follow our customers as they reposition and expand their manufacturing footprint in response to changing tariffs as part of our 'catchment basin' strategy in Asia," Cox added.