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Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: Tariffs are denting profits, and maybe soon your portfolio
The theme of the moment in financial markets is the resilience of US stock values. President Trump is imposing billions of dollars in new import taxes on US firms, yet the S&P 500 (^GSPC) index is up 26% from its April low and fresh off several record highs. Investors who shunned US assets just a few months ago are now aggressively buying. However, numerous warning signs have emerged during the second quarter earnings season as companies outline the ways Trump's tariffs are hurting profits, disrupting operations, and forcing price hikes onto consumers. Tariffs are not hitting every company, since they mainly affect goods, and many of America's top firms are service providers. But some analysts think the negative tariff effects are widespread enough to take the wind out of stocks soon. With second quarter earnings in for about two-thirds of S&P 500 companies, Yahoo Finance's Grace O'Donnell has identified more than four dozen large firms saying tariffs are impacting their businesses in some material way. Some are able to quantify the monetary effect on earnings. Others expect tariffs to hit their finances but aren't yet sure how. And some CEOs have been blunt about price hikes heading toward consumers. Manufacturers are bearing a large portion of the tariff cost, since many rely on imported components that are now more expensive. Caterpillar (CAT), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), BMW ( Ford (F), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Hyundai (HYMTF), Tesla (TSLA), GE Aerospace (GE), 3M (MMM), and General Motors (GM) are among the companies saying tariffs reduced earnings in the second quarter. Ford, as one example, said tariffs would knock $2 billion off earnings this year. Caterpillar expects a tariff hit of at least $1.3 billion. Kimberly-Clark's tariff loss will be around $170 million. Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs It's not just manufacturers. Companies that import products they sell to consumers are suffering too. Apple (AAPL) expects tariffs to cut earnings by nearly $2 billion for the six months through Sept. 30. Hershey (HSY) said tariffs will cost it at least $170 million this year. VF Corp., whose brands include Vans, The North Face, and Timberland, sees a $250 million hit to earnings through 2026. Some of America's biggest consumer goods producers, including Procter & Gamble (PG), Mattel (MAT), Columbia Sportswear (COLM), and L'Oreal (LOR.F), say they'll have no choice but to pass some of their higher costs onto consumers. Many executives discussing the Trump tariffs say it's too soon to assess the impact of import taxes that have only been in place a couple of months, which means a lot more bad news may be in the pipeline. The disconnect in markets right now is that tariff impacts that are causing headline damage for a lot of individual companies don't yet seem to be depressing overall earnings. Roughly 80% of companies reporting their earnings so far have beaten analyst estimates, according to FactSet. That's better than the usual beat ratio. Earnings growth has also been solid, and Wall Street forecasts for the third quarter are even better, despite the tariffs. Solid actual earnings and robust forecasts for future gains are the driving forces motivating investors to buy. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your financesThe question is will it last, and there are several reasons for doubt. Oxford Economics thinks investors are too bullish now because they were too panicky in April and May, when Trump imposed dramatically high tariffs that he has since lowered. Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements on April 2 triggered a big stock sell-off, which in turn prompted Trump to back down and pause some of those tariffs. The average tariff rate jumped from 2.5% before Trump took office to about 28% after "Liberation Day." Recent changes to Trump's tariff regime brought the average import tax to as low as 14%, then up to about 18%, where it is today. So, the average import tax is now lower than it was in April and May — but still considerably higher than it's been for the past 90 years. That will still sting. "Margin resilience [is] unlikely to last," Oxford economists noted in an Aug. 5 analysis. "We think margin pressures will build throughout the second half of the year as the effective tariff rate continues to move higher, businesses deplete front-run inventories, and domestic demand softens." Bloomberg recently reported that several Wall Street money managers, including Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and Deutsche Bank, are warning clients that a stock pullback of 10% to 15% could be on the horizon. Trump's trade wars are the biggest concern, as the rising toll of import taxes further damages profits, raises prices, reins in spending, and depresses growth. The sharp slowdown in job growth during the past three months may be a harbinger of worse to come. The average pace of job gains from May through July was just 35,000, an 80% decline from the 2024 pace. Trump got so angry over those numbers that he fired the government economist who oversees the employment report. But the real problem is Trump's own policies, and he can't fire every CEO who needs to explain how tariffs are harming profits. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
3 Stocks That May Be Priced Below Their Estimated Value In August 2025
As the U.S. stock market rebounds from a recent sell-off, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing significant gains, investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and corporate earnings reports to gauge future trends. In such a volatile environment, identifying stocks that may be priced below their estimated value can offer potential opportunities for those looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies. Top 10 Undervalued Stocks Based On Cash Flows In The United States Name Current Price Fair Value (Est) Discount (Est) WesBanco (WSBC) $29.51 $58.27 49.4% Similarweb (SMWB) $7.91 $15.58 49.2% RXO (RXO) $15.00 $29.83 49.7% Origin Bancorp (OBK) $35.32 $69.82 49.4% NBT Bancorp (NBTB) $40.56 $79.86 49.2% Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) $126.10 $250.83 49.7% Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) $15.01 $29.92 49.8% FB Financial (FBK) $47.47 $93.90 49.4% Definitive Healthcare (DH) $3.74 $7.38 49.3% Camden National (CAC) $36.60 $72.91 49.8% Click here to see the full list of 173 stocks from our Undervalued US Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener. Let's explore several standout options from the results in the screener. Oddity Tech Overview: Oddity Tech Ltd. is a consumer tech company that develops digital-first brands for the beauty and wellness sectors both in the United States and globally, with a market cap of $4 billion. Operations: The company generates revenue from its Personal Products segment, amounting to $703.49 million. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 10% Oddity Tech is trading at US$71.70, approximately 10% below its estimated fair value of US$79.70, indicating potential undervaluation based on cash flows. The company's earnings are expected to grow significantly at 24.88% annually, surpassing the broader US market growth rate of 14.7%. Revenue growth is also strong at 16.2% per year, although not as rapid as earnings growth. Investors should note the upcoming Q2 2025 earnings release scheduled for August 4th after-market hours. Upon reviewing our latest growth report, Oddity Tech's projected financial performance appears quite optimistic. Unlock comprehensive insights into our analysis of Oddity Tech stock in this financial health report. D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Overview: D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. operates as an e-commerce platform in Turkey, with a market cap of approximately $842.02 million. Operations: The company's revenue is primarily generated from its e-commerce operations, amounting to ₺58.83 billion. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 11.3% D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret is trading at a good value, approximately 11.3% below its estimated fair value of $2.95 per share. Despite recent net losses, the company's revenue is projected to grow at 24.5% annually, significantly outpacing the US market's growth rate of 9.2%. Earnings are forecast to increase by over 100% per year, with profitability expected within three years, highlighting potential for cash flow-driven undervaluation recognition in the future. In light of our recent growth report, it seems possible that D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret's financial performance will exceed current levels. Delve into the full analysis health report here for a deeper understanding of D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret. Guild Holdings Overview: Guild Holdings Company, with a market cap of $1.24 billion, operates in the United States through its subsidiary to originate, sell, and service residential mortgage loans. Operations: Guild Holdings generates revenue through two primary segments: $828.98 million from origination and $153.36 million from servicing residential mortgage loans in the United States. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 27.7% Guild Holdings is trading at a significant discount, approximately 27.7% below its estimated fair value of US$27.48 per share, highlighting potential undervaluation based on cash flows. Despite a recent net loss of US$23.9 million for Q1 2025, earnings are projected to grow significantly at 39.9% annually, outpacing the broader US market's growth rate of 14.7%. Recent M&A activity may further influence its valuation as it transitions to private ownership by Bayview Asset Management for approximately $1.3 billion in Q4 2025. Our growth report here indicates Guild Holdings may be poised for an improving outlook. Click to explore a detailed breakdown of our findings in Guild Holdings' balance sheet health report. Turning Ideas Into Actions Click here to access our complete index of 173 Undervalued US Stocks Based On Cash Flows. Already own these companies? Link your portfolio to Simply Wall St and get alerts on any new warning signs to your stocks. Join a community of smart investors by using Simply Wall St. It's free and delivers expert-level analysis on worldwide markets. Want To Explore Some Alternatives? Explore high-performing small cap companies that haven't yet garnered significant analyst attention. Diversify your portfolio with solid dividend payers offering reliable income streams to weather potential market turbulence. Fuel your portfolio with companies showing strong growth potential, backed by optimistic outlooks both from analysts and management. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include ODD HEPS and GHLD. This article was originally published by Simply Wall St. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
SGOV Pulls In $1.1B as Markets Rebound From Friday Rout
The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) attracted $1.1 billion Monday, bringing its assets under management to $52.7 billion, according to data provided by FactSet. The short-term Treasury fund's inflows came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 585 points, completely wiping out Friday's decline sparked by weak jobs data and new tariff concerns. Invest in Gold Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) pulled in $884.6 million, while the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) collected $749.9 million as the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) gained $307.8 million, and the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) attracted $416.2 million. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) saw outflows of $8 billion despite the market rebound, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost $1.5 billion. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) experienced outflows of $587.4 million, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) shed $355 million. U.S. fixed-income ETFs attracted $3.9 billion, while U.S. equity funds posted outflows of $7.8 billion. Currency ETFs lost $955.7 million. Overall, ETFs posted net outflows of $4.6 billion for the day. Track real-time ETF inflows and outflows for all tickers using ETF Fund Flows tool. Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) Ticker Name Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 1,119.35 52,714.73 2.12% VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 884.60 700,416.21 0.13% IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 749.88 633,019.93 0.12% BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF 416.17 41,584.88 1.00% XLC Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund 307.80 24,093.36 1.28% JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF 265.28 32,743.44 0.81% CGDV Capital Group Dividend Value ETF 213.29 20,044.18 1.06% MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF 207.57 38,670.60 0.54% VCSH Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF 198.48 35,386.19 0.56% USFR WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund 196.29 19,000.33 1.03% Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs) Ticker Name Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust -7,991.41 639,674.77 -1.25% IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF -1,527.13 57,880.41 -2.64% ARKK ARK Innovation ETF -587.38 7,020.02 -8.37% XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund -385.75 51,540.79 -0.75% XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund -356.55 21,372.11 -1.67% SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF -355.00 25,969.75 -1.37% SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF -332.05 13,187.19 -2.52% FBTC Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund -331.42 22,959.91 -1.44% ARKB ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF Ben of Int -327.93 5,175.63 -6.34% TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF -280.81 47,685.45 -0.59% ETF Daily Flows By Asset Class Net Flows ($, mm) AUM ($, mm) % of AUM Alternatives 20.95 10,456.32 0.20% Asset Allocation 96.79 26,067.51 0.37% Commodities ETFs 57.02 221,678.55 0.03% Currency -955.69 173,734.04 -0.55% International Equity -519.26 1,882,552.34 -0.03% International Fixed Income 728.51 311,602.22 0.23% Inverse -81.00 14,690.04 -0.55% Leveraged -40.61 139,903.61 -0.03% US Equity -7,781.34 7,197,325.25 -0.11% US Fixed Income 3,896.00 1,727,716.12 0.23% Total: -4,578.65 11,705,725.99 -0.04% Disclaimer: All data as of 6 a.m. Eastern time the date the article is published. Data are believed to be accurate; however, transient market data are often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data