BOJ to be cautiously upbeat, keep rates steady as trade gloom lifts
Markets are focusing on any hints Governor Kazuo Ueda may offer on the likelihood of another rate hike this year, as the central bank weighs lingering tariff-induced risks to growth and mounting inflationary pressure from higher food costs.
"Given the high degree of uncertainty, I understand a wait and see stance is necessary for now," former BOJ Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso told Reuters, warning U.S. tariffs and slowing global demand will weigh on Japan's economy.
"But once the uncertainties clear enough for the BOJ to restore confidence that the economic and inflation trajectory will move in line with their projections, I think they will be back on their way to the next rate hike," he said.
At the two-day meeting ending on Thursday, the BOJ is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.5%.
In a quarterly report, the BOJ is likely to revise up this fiscal year's inflation forecast but maintain its view that underlying inflation - or price moves driven by domestic demand - remains short of its 2% target, sources have told Reuters.
The BOJ may offer a less gloomy view on the economy compared with the current one focused on tariff-induced risks, but likely to warn of lingering uncertainty on how the higher U.S. levy affects
business activity, separate sources said.
"A weak real economy, a lack of demand-driven price pressure and lingering trade uncertainty will keep the central bank on hold," said Stefan Angrick, head of Japan and Frontier markets Economics at Moody's Analytics.
"Our best guess is that the central bank will next hike rates in January, though a hike may come as early as December 2025," he said.
A Reuters poll, taken before the Japan-U.S. trade deal announcement earlier this month, showed a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates again by year-end.
Japan's
trade deal struck
with President Donald Trump this month lowers U.S. tariffs for imports of goods including its mainstay automobiles, easing the pain for the export-reliant economy and clearing a key hurdle for further BOJ rate hikes.
The positive development contrasts with the gloom that surrounded the economy on May 1, when the BOJ produced its current estimates amid heightened market volatility caused by Trump's April announcement of sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs.
But the BOJ has not let its guard down yet. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida warned earlier this month that it was still hard to tell how much damage U.S. tariffs and slowing global trade could inflict on Japan's economy.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday edged up its global growth forecast on front-loading demand from firms seeking to beat tariffs, but warned of major risks to the outlook including a potential rebound in tariffs
.
The key would be whether Japan's big manufacturers, which have been key drivers of wage hikes, will continue to increase pay as their profits get squeezed by U.S. tariffs, analysts say.
The BOJ exited a decade-long, massive stimulus last year and raised its short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was progressing towards durably achieving its price goal.
While Governor Ueda has signaled a pause in rate hikes after Trump's April 2 announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, Japan's trade deal with the U.S. has revived market expectations of an increase in its short-term policy rate to 0.75% by year-end.
Some hawkish BOJ board members have stressed the need to pay more attention to upside risks to prices with stubbornly high food costs keeping core inflation above the bank's 2% target for well over three years.
In current projections made on May 1, the BOJ projects core consumer inflation to hit 2.2% in fiscal 2025, before slowing to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
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