India's shifting oil map: How did Russia change the trade game? Middle East holds steady; smaller suppliers lose ground
Russia's increasing dominance in India's oil imports has altered trading dynamics but the position of major suppliers from the Middle East has been mostly maintained.
Iraq,
Saudi Arabia
and the UAE remain primary suppliers, while smaller exporters have seen their market presence shrink, trade statistics show, as reported by Economic Times.
Deliveries from Iraq and Saudi Arabia have decreased by approximately 5% since 2021, prior to the Ukraine conflict, while UAE shipments have increased by 3%, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Nevertheless, India's established Middle Eastern suppliers have also maintained their presence. In 2025, Iraqi supplies average 898,000 b/d, Saudi Arabian deliveries 640,000 b/d, and UAE contributions 448,000 b/d.
Compared to 2021, Iraqi and Saudi volumes decreased by approximately 5%, whilst UAE increased by 3%.
The impact has been more significant for smaller or remote suppliers. American exports have declined by 33%, Nigerian and Kuwaiti shipments have reduced by half, while Omani and Mexican supplies have decreased by over 80%.
In 2025, US deliveries average 271,000 b/d, Nigerian 151,000 b/d, Kuwaiti 131,000 b/d, Omani 20,000 b/d and Mexican 24,000 b/d.
Supplies from Colombia, Ecuador, Gabon and Congo have also reduced.
Industry officials indicate that Indian refiners consider long-term agreements with major Middle Eastern producers essential for energy security. These agreements remained largely intact, with refiners reducing only discretionary purchases.
Several suppliers, particularly Iraq, offered competitive terms to maintain market share during Russian oil's expansion, according to these officials.
Where does India's oil trade with Russia stand?
Despite US pressure to cut off imports from Russia, India has remained firm in continuing the supply.
During 2021, Russian supply was limited to 100,000 barrels daily (b/d) of India's four million b/d imports, significantly behind Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, Nigeria, Kuwait and others, as per Vortexa data, cited by ET.
Following the war's disruption to global commerce, Russian crude entered India extensively.
By 2022, Russia became India's third-largest supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Subsequently, Russia surpassed both nations, delivering 1.76 million b/d - exceeding the combined volume from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In 2025, Russia maintains its leading position, supplying approximately 1.7 million b/d.
Russian oil, purchased predominantly through spot market transactions at reduced prices, primarily replaced higher-priced or geographically distant shipments from Africa and America.
Currently, as India is being pushed to stop Russian purchases due to increasing US pressure, those previously marginalised suppliers have a chance to be significant again, officials suggest. However, India has not in any official capacity suggested a cut off from Russia but has been encouraging the ties between the two nations, with Putin set to visit India.
Russia has been optimistic in building relations with Russian Embassy on Wednesday voicing their support while calling US' 'double standards' on levying additional tariffs.
According to a Reuters report, the Russian embassy said, "If Indian good cannot go to US market, they can head to Russia".
Further, pointing to the significance of their own oil production while supporting India, it also stated, "Discount on Russian crude oil is about 5% for India. India understands there is no chance to change supplies, profit very high for India.' 'There is no alternative to Russian crude oil as it is very competitive,' it further said, adding that India 'matters very much' for Russia.
Read more:
Russia slams 'unjustified' Trump sanctions on oil
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