Starbucks Ramps Up Test-and-Scale Strategy: Can It Fuel a Turnaround?
A key initiative is the green apron service model, designed to enhance speed and partner connection during peak hours. Initially tested in just a handful of stores, the model has since expanded to nearly 2,000 company-operated locations and is reporting promising results.
Starbucks has initiated tests of a new order sequencing algorithm designed to improve service efficiency across both café and drive-thru channels without disrupting the mobile order experience. Early results from pilot stores indicate that average café wait times declined by approximately two minutes, with 75% of peak-hour orders now fulfilled in under four minutes.
This iterative process extends beyond store operations. From menu simplification to beverage innovation and even store design enhancements, Starbucks is carefully calibrating each move. The company paused the broader rollout of its capital-intensive Siren equipment after finding that labor-focused adjustments yielded stronger returns. Likewise, changes to the Starbucks Rewards program and product mix — such as the sugar-free matcha update — are being introduced in phased rollouts to gauge impact before broader deployment.
By relying on a structured framework of test, learn, refine and scale, Starbucks aims to minimize execution risk and align operational upgrades with both partner capability and customer demand. The company is optimistic and anticipates the initiative to drive profitable transactions and stronger long-term unit economics.
How It Stacks Up to Other Industry Players
Dutch Bros Inc. BROS is pursuing a similarly iterative strategy, particularly around throughput and digital ordering. Dutch Bros' Order Ahead program has shown promising traction in new markets, often delivering 2x the transaction penetration rate versus the system average. Dutch Bros is also scaling a limited food pilot, expanding from 8 to 32 stores, with broader rollout plans targeted for 2026. Its approach mirrors Starbucks in balancing operational simplicity with customer-centric innovation.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG continues to take a hybrid approach, leveraging both operational pilots and equipment-driven innovation to enhance throughput and guest experience. In 2025, Chipotle is rolling out produce slicers, dual-sided planchas and rice cookers following promising test results. The company is also investing in Autocado, its proprietary avocado prep tool, which has returned to test kitchens for refinement. CMG's strategy mirrors Starbucks in its use of controlled testing and phased scale but places greater emphasis on kitchen automation as a driver of labor efficiency and culinary consistency.
SBUX's Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Starbucks have gained 11.5% in the past three months compared with the industry 's rise of 4.6%.
SBUX Three-Month Price Performance
From a valuation standpoint, Starbucks trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.80, below the industry's average of 4.07X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) implies a decline of 25.1% year over year, while 2026 EPS indicates a rise of 20.5% year over year. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 have declined in the past 30 days.
Starbucks stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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