Democrats squint and see chances at a Senate majority

Politico

2 days ago

Schumer's recruitment efforts are reflective of a larger strategy to stake his party's chances in several key states on well-established, older candidates, even as much of the Democratic base hungers for generational change. Along with Cooper, 68, and Brown, 72, Democrats are hoping to lure Maine Gov. Janet Mills, 77, into the race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 72.
The Democrats' game plan doubles, in theory, as a way to avoid costly and divisive primaries. Cooper effectively boxed out most of the North Carolina field by keeping the door open to a run, and the sole other Democratic candidate, former Rep. Wiley Nickel, exited the race after Cooper launched his bid. Brown is also expected to clear the field in Ohio.
Nickel told POLITICO his initial decision to run was about 'fighting for the best chance to flip North Carolina's Senate seat,' but with Cooper getting in, he said the former governor 'gives Democrats our best shot to flip this seat.'
The success that Senate Democrats have had in luring battle-tested candidates into the arena stands in contrast to Republicans' efforts this cycle.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, widely seen as a strong potential contender to oust Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, decided against a run. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu similarly opted against a bid for the seat left open by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, even after winning Trump's support.
Republicans have also lost an incumbent to retirement — and there could be more.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis announced he was not running for reelection after Trump attacked him for voting against advancing his megabill. In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst has not formally announced she is seeking reelection, and the White House saw it necessary to encourage her to try for another term. Collins got her dream job as Senate Appropriations chair only to see her power undermined by Trump, and Democrats are praying she could be next, though she's said she intends to run again .
Democrats are also hopeful that contentious GOP primaries could bolster their chances to hold Ossoff's seat in Georgia and turn Texas blue if MAGA darling Attorney General Ken Paxton ousts incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn as polling indicates he might.
'From nasty, expensive primaries to a string of embarrassing recruitment failures and a toxic agenda, Senate Republicans are falling apart at the seams,' said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle.
But Democrats have their own crowded primaries to contend with. An ambitious field of three well-funded Democrats in Michigan is threatening to divert resources from defeating Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race to Elissa Slotkin last year. The GOP quickly consolidated behind Rogers rather than risk a contested primary.
And Democrats are still hoping for other top recruits to enter races. In Maine, Schumer has yet to persuade Mills to get into the Senate race. Ditto for former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska, where she is also eyeing the gubernatorial contest after narrowly losing reelection to the House last year.
There are other hurdles for Democrats. They lack a clear leader, are struggling to raise money, and remain unpopular with voters after their resounding defeat in last year's election.
'The idea that Democrats, saddled with historically low approval ratings, will win in red states with candidates like Brown and Peltola — who voters just rejected — is absurd,' said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
But optimistic Democrats know that a single strong candidate — perhaps a Cooper, Brown, Mills, Peltola — can singlehandedly reshape a race. And maybe if they can get a few more of them, their path to control starts to get a little clearer.
Even without squinting so hard.