Take Five: Quicksand
Here's your weekahead from Bill Schomberg and Karin Strohecker in London, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Alden Bentley in New York.
A raft of bellwether blue chips are reporting to Wall Street with Caterpillar (CAT.N), opens new tab due on Tuesday, then Disney (DIS.N), opens new tab, and McDonald's (MCD.N), opens new tab on Wednesday.
All are in the Dow 30 index, which has been flirting with record highs. Beats or upbeat outlooks from these could help lift this bellwether over the line. It is the only benchmark that has yet to hit a new peak after April's tariff panic.
Some data points will help gauge the health of the world's largest economy, with durable goods orders out on Monday, and the ISM services purchasing managers' index on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury auctions for benchmark 10-year and 30-year bonds will show if strong demand seen in shorter-dated papers in recent days can be replicated further out the curve.
It's been a challenge for Beijing: how do you stir animal spirits while pivoting the world's number two economy to one built on consumers instead of factories?
Trade data on Thursday and inflation figures two days later will give the latest reading on how arduous the task remains. The numbers come on the back of a closely-watched Politburo meeting, where policymakers vowed a crackdown on crippling domestic price wars but not offering much concrete new stimulus - much to the chagrin of domestic investors.
Analysts say that's a good thing, chalking up slowing support measures to a stronger-than-expected economy and smoother-than-anticipated tariff negotiations with Washington.
Meanwhile, trade talks with the U.S. ended without a breakthrough though look on track for an extension to the August 12 deadline.
Rising inflation and falling employment will be at the heart of the Bank of England's conundrum when policymakers meet on Thursday to set interest rates.
Analysts expect a quarter-point cut to 4% and another "gradual and careful" message about its following moves. Markets are pricing another cut before year-end and one more in 2026. But some analysts think the BoE might have to call a halt to the process perhaps as soon as next week, given the warning signals about inflation.
Another three-way split among policymakers looks likely amid differences over which danger is most pressing.
The BoE is expected to assess the impact of its push to run down government debt stockpiles ahead of a September decision on the pace of sales over the following 12 months.
Mexico's central bank policymakers also meet on Thursday to decide on interest rates, and are expected to deliver another 25-basis-point cut to lower rates to 7.75% - which would be a three-year trough.
But the outlook is clouded - minutes from the July meeting confirm a shift in the easing cycle, notably, policymakers pre-committing to more easing as they face persistent inflation and weak domestic demand.
And the outlook for Mexico's trade relationship with its northern neighbour is adding to uncertainty. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she secured a pause on new tariffs coming into effect and a 90-day period to work on a trade deal.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia are meeting on Sunday to decide on increasing oil output for September.
Expectations are the group will raise output by 550,000 barrels per day in what would be its last move for now - though the decision comes at a delicate moment for energy markets.
Analysts are trying to sift through the fog of what the economic impact - and change in crude oil demand - will be in the wake of Trump's tariff onslaught.
Looming even larger is the question of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports from Washington: Trump said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had only 10 to 12 days to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine before Washington would impose such curbs, short circuiting the previous 50-day timeframe set on July 14.
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