Jack Ciattarelli Within Striking Distance of Mikie Sherrill in N.J.—Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
An internal GOP poll showed Republican Jack Ciattarelli within striking distance of Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.
Newsweek reached out to the Ciattarelli and Sherrill campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Ciattarelli and Sherrill emerged as their party's nominees in last week's primary election, setting them up for a November matchup in the Garden State. The off-year gubernatorial race will be a key test for both parties.
Sherrill will face questions about whether she can win back voters who shifted toward Republicans in last year's presidential race, such as young and Latino voters. Ciattarelli will be working to build off of President Donald Trump's progress in the state, which he lost by six points against Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speaks during an election watch party in Bridgewater, New Jersey, on November 2, 2021. Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Washington on September...
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speaks during an election watch party in Bridgewater, New Jersey, on November 2, 2021. Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Washington on September 28, 2021. More;What To Know
An internal poll from the Ciattarelli campaign, conducted by National Research and reported by The New Jersey Globe, showed Sherrill with a narrow lead.
Forty-five percent of respondents said they planned to back Sherrill to 42 percent for Ciattarelli, according to the poll of 600 likely voters on June 11-12. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A SurveyUSA poll, conducted on behalf of a left-leaning group Education Reform Now Advocacy, showed Sherrill with a larger lead. In that survey, 51 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Sherrill compared to 38 percent for Ciattarelli. It polled 785 New Jersey adults on May 28-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.
The SurveyUSA poll also found that Ciattarelli and Sherrill had similar favorability ratings among New Jersey voters, and that a slightly higher percentage of the state's voters are familiar with Ciattarelli, who was the GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2021.
Ciattarelli was viewed favorably by 40 percent of voters, while Sherrill was viewed favorably by 41 percent of voters. Twenty-five percent were unfamiliar with Ciattarelli, while 30 percent were unfamiliar with Sherrill.
The Ciattarelli campaign told Newsweek on Monday:"Make no mistake that this is a 'CHANGE' election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate. A majority of New Jersey voters (54 percent) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33 percent believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72 percent to 14 percent margin among those wrong-track voters, and an even stronger 87 percent to 6 percent among voters who want a governor who will 'shake up Trenton.'"
Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek earlier in June that while Sherrill is well known in her district, she will need to work to improve her name recognition across the state.
Campaigns typically release internal polling for a number of reasons, such as to show their candidates' potential strength to national fundraisers, and these sorts of surveys are generally not considered as reliable as independent polling. Still, the polls may provide an early look at the state of the race.
Both candidates are vying to replace term-limited Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat. Republicans have not won a New Jersey gubernatorial race since 2013 and haven't carried it on the presidential level since 1988. But Republicans see a chance to make more inroads with voters after Trump narrowed his margin in the state by 10 points. He lost it by six points in 2024, down from a 16-point loss in 2020 and 14 in 2016.
What People Are Saying
Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, previously told Newsweek: "It is certainly possible that New Jersey could elect a Republican governor in November. Governor Murphy was the first Democrat to be reelected in more than 40 years, and in that same span, three Republican governors were elected and reelected."
Kyle Kindik of Sabato's Crystal Ball, in a June 11 report: "The main reasons to favor Sherrill are that she has been a good electoral performer in the House—although she was not strongly pushed in her four general election races—and that she is a Democrat running in what is still a Democratic-leaning state in what should be at least a modestly Democratic-leaning environment with Donald Trump in the White House. That said, she is also running for a third straight Democratic gubernatorial term, so Ciattarelli can make an argument for change at the state level."
Alex Ball, Sherrill's campaign manager, told Newsweek in May: "New Jersey saw in the debate why Mikie Sherrill continues to lead in every poll: her lifelong commitment to service, strong record getting big things done and her ability to beat Trump Republicans at every turn. Republicans are afraid to go up against Mikie in November because she knows how to win and then deliver for New Jerseyans."
What Happens Next
Ciattarelli and Sherrill will spend the coming months making their cases to New Jersey voters about why they are the strongest candidates to lead the state. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as leaning Democrat—meaning it is "considered competitive" but Democrats have "an advantage."
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