Colts Insiders simulate the NFL draft ... and fans will like how it turns out
IndyStar's Colts' Insiders believe this simulated draft fell perfectly, do you agree?
Check out all seven Colts' picks in this mock draft
Instead of predicting the picks of the Indianapolis Colts and 31 other NFL teams, Colts Insiders Joel A. Erickson and Nate Atkins put together a different kind of mock draft, playing the role of the team's scouts and general manager Chris Ballard. ESPN's draft simulator makes the rest of the picks, and when the Colts come on the clock, Erickson and Atkins weigh the options, then make the team's picks based on who's available. This time, Erickson and Atkins recorded their mock draft as part of the 'Colts Cover-2 podcast,' and the full conversation can be found there. What follows is an edited version of that mock draft.
Erickson: Colts head coach Shane Steichen said it on Tuesday: 'Obviously, we're looking to add a pass-catching tight end, possibly.' … Every mock drafter, for the entire offseason, has been mocking tight ends the Colts. It's the most obvious thing in the world. If Chris Ballard or Shane Steichen had said, 'We don't want a tight end,' no one would believe them. Everyone knows the Colts are in the market for a tight end.
Atkins: There's an urgency to that position. This is a pretty good year to need a tight end, between the draft options in the first round, I think there's a guy in the second round that is a great fit for them. There are guys lower down the board that I don't think fit as your No. 1 tight end, but they're pretty good.
Erickson: What's your sleeper pick, position-wise, in the first round? Mine's defensive line. If they don't go tight end, mine's defensive line. I think that could be tackle, I think that could be end, if that's the result of a trade down, however they get there. I just can't get it out of my head that they lost nearly 1,500 snaps from last season's defensive line, between Dayo Odeyingbo at defensive end and the combination of Raekwon Davis and Taven Bryan inside. Nearly 700 of those snaps, the defensive tackle tandem were not great, but that doesn't mean the Colts should give up on getting more impact from that spot.
Atkins: Defensive end's probably the best choice. If I had to move out of that area, I'm going to go with guard. It's a sleeper, not only because it's not usually the best first-round option, but it's not very often where Ballard's going to go. He loves the middle rounds, later value on the interior offensive line. It would have to be a guy who's a star from Day 1, which you could argue they need.
NFL DRAFT HUB: Live NFL Draft news, live picks, grades, analysis and more.
Erickson: Fire up the simulator, Nate. Let's see how the board falls.
FIRST ROUND: 1. Cam Ward, QB, Titans; 2. Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Browns; 3. Abdul Carter, EDGE, Giants; 4. Mason Graham, DT, Patriots; 5. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Jaguars; 6. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders; 7. Will Campbell, OT, Jets; 8. Will Johnson, CB, Panthers; 9. Armand Membou, OT, Saints; 10. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Bears; 11. Shemar Stewart, Edge, 49ers; 12. Mike Green, Edge, Cowboys; 13. Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas.
Atkins: If Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is on the board, there's not going to be much debate, and he's still available.
Erickson: Let's talk through the options anyway. We have three trade offers. The Browns want to give up next year's first-round pick, but they want us to drop all the way to No. 33, the first pick of the second round. The Rams want us to move down to No. 26 for a third-rounder and next-year's second-rounder, and the Giants want to give us pick No. 34 and two future picks. My thought is we can't do that and get either of the top two tight ends. All of those options fall too far.
Atkins: These trades are all about collecting future picks, which isn't where the Colts are right now.
Erickson: Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders is available. The book on Sanders, from my understanding, is that he's a point guard-type who can distribute the ball but doesn't offer a lot of dynamic traits. Under Ballard, the Colts' drafting philosophy has not been to draft that kind of player.
Atkins: If he was the kind of quarterback with dynamic upside, the Browns and Giants probably don't pass on him. If you wanted to trade back, you could talk yourself into the fact that both Warren and Michigan's Colston Loveland are on the board.
Erickson: All of our offers forced us to drop too far back. It looks like we're going tight end. Let's take a look at the debate of Warren vs. Loveland.
Atkins: There's a reason why they're both projected first-rounders. Both are really good in different ways. Loveland is an athletic, seam-stretching tight end who gets open, he can catch the ball, he can stretch the field. The three-down tight end, the one the Colts have been talking about, that's Tyler Warren to me.
The pick: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
15. Jalon Walker, LB, Falcons; 16. Mykel Williams, Edge, Cardinals; 17. Colston Loveland, TE, Bengals; 18. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Seahawks; 19. Derrick Harmon, DT, Bills (via trade); 20. Matthew Golden, WR, Broncos; 21. Josh Simmons, OT, Steelers; 22. Tyler Booker, OG, Eagles (via trade); 23. Nic Scourton, Edge, Packers; 24. Nick Emmanwori, S, Vikings; 25. Grey Zabel, OG, Texans; 26. Jihaad Campbell, LB, Rams; 27. Trey Amos, CB, Ravens; 28. Malaki Starks, S, Lions; 29. Walter Nolen, DT, Commanders; 30. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Buccaneers (via trade); 31. Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Chiefs; 32. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Bengals (via trade).
SECOND ROUND: 33. Jalen Milroe, QB, Browns; 34. Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants; 35. Tre Harris, WR, Titans; 36. Aireontae Ersery, OT, Jaguars; 37. Shavon Revel, CB, Raiders; 38. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Patriots; 39. Oluwafemi Oladejo, Edge, Bears; 40. Donovan Jackson, OG, Saints; 41. Kenneth Grant, DT, Jets (via trade); 42. Omarion Hampton, RB, Bears (via trade); 43. TJ Sanders, DT, 49ers; 44. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cowboys.
Erickson: It's a good thing we didn't trade back. Loveland was gone three picks later. We have no trade offers here, but we do have a good option.
Atkins: Carson Schwesinger, the linebacker out of UCLA, just makes sense. Ideally, if you drew a draft up for the Colts, you'd have them answering tight end and linebacker off the bat, because they're the biggest needs on both sides of the ball. My personal take on linebacker for this team is they need to do this by Day 2, because of the specific need for a cover linebacker.
Erickson: Ballard's successful picks on Day 3 at linebacker have been the traditional middle linebacker, the plugger who's better at the line of scrimmage. The Colts found Anthony Walker and Zaire Franklin on Day 3; the cover linebackers he's found, Shaquille Leonard and Bobby Okereke, were both picked on Day 2.
Atkins: Maybe he isn't quite the same athlete as Leonard and Okereke, but the way he covers is high end, and he led all of college football in solo tackles. To get both of those in one body, for this team, is important, because their tackling was horrible last year. That has to get better.
Erickson: Schwesinger hasn't run the 40-yard dash yet, but his relative athletic score is 9.86.
Atkins: That's usually a good indicator. The only other guys I think you could talk yourself into here is one of the edge rushers, and there are a couple of guards in this range, but when you compare the need, it's just not the same as cover linebacker.
The pick: Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA
46. Luther Burden III, WR, Falcons; 47. Jaylin Noel, WR, Cardinals; 48. Jonah Savaiinaea, OG, Dolphins; 49. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Chargers (via trade); 50. Maxwell Hairston, CB, Commanders (via trade); 51. Tyleik Williams, DT, Chiefs (via trade); 52. Mason Taylor, TE, Seahawks; 53. Azareye'h Thomas, CB, Florida State; 54. Jalen Royals, WR, Packers; 55. Wyatt Milum, OG, Chargers; 56. Xavier Watts, S, Buccaneers (via trade); 57. Landon Jackson, Edge, Panthers; 58. Alfred Collins, DT, Texans; 59. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ravens; 60. Princely Umanmielen, Edge, Lions; 61. Tate Ratledge, OG, Seahawks (via trade); 62. Benjamin Morrison, CB, Bills; 63. J.T. Tuimoloau, Edge, Broncos (via trade); 64. Jayden Higgins, WR, Chargers.
THIRD ROUND: 65. Marcus Mbow, OT, Giants; 66. Kyle Williams, WR, Chiefs; 67. Andrew Mukuba, S, Browns; 68. Demetrius Knight Jr., LB, Raiders; 69. Ashton Gillotte, Edge, Patriots; 70. Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Jaguars; 71. Jared Wilson, C, Saints; 72. Lathan Ransom, S, Bears; 73. Elijah Arroyo, TE, Jets; 74. Kevin Winston Jr., S, Panthers; 75. Barrett Carter, LB, 49ers; 76. Darien Porter, CB, Cowboys; 77. Emery Jones, OT, Patriots; 78. Miles Frazier, OG, Cardinals; 79. Charles Grant, OT, Texans
Erickson: We have one trade offer. The Chargers are offering pick No. 86 and pick No. 214, a sixth-rounder, for No. 80.
Atkins: That's not an overwhelming offer, to get a late sixth-round pick.
Erickson: The top of the board we're using right now has a guy who's often projected to the second round, and I like him, Toledo defensive tackle Darius Alexander. If a second-round prospect drops to the middle of the third round, that's usually a good value. Alexander profiles as the kind of developmental 3-technique that the Colts don't have behind DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.
Atkins: What they need at defensive tackle is a pass rusher. A player like Dayo Odeyingbo. There's a defensive end here, LSU's Bradyn Swinson, this is the right range for him, but Oregon's Jordan Burch is interesting here. One of his player comparisons is Odeyingbo. He's got physical traits and upside, but his production is inconsistent.
Erickson: Burch is 6-4, 279 pounds. That's more of the hybrid player. Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough is here. Do you want to get spicy?
Atkins: I don't think he's going to last this long in real life, and I think he's a project, traits quarterback. You can talk yourself into it, but I don't think so. Do you like Alexander or Burch better?
Erickson: Historically, Ballard has liked the big defensive ends who can also play inside. He tends to prefer that kind of player over the straight defensive tackle. I think we take the player who can help out at both spots, defensive end and defensive tackle.
The pick: Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon
Rest of Colts picks
Fourth round, No. 119 (via trade) with Chargers: Damien Martinez, RB, Miami
Fifth round, No. 151: Bryce Cabeldue, G, Kansas
Sixth round, No. 181 (via trade): Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon
Sixth round, No. 189: Carson Vinson, OT, Alabama A&M
Erickson: We did a good job of clicking off needs here. Defensive tackle and safety, we didn't hit those, but they have starters at those positions. We probably could have picked Virginia Tech defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles instead of taking Gabriel in the sixth round.
Atkins: When you hit those first two picks, when you don't have to trade up and get Warren and Schwesinger, big-time players at both positions of need, that sets up a good draft if you can do it. I have doubts about Warren making it to No. 14 in real life. I think the rest of the draft is a lot of guys who could help right away.
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