Gold eases as investors await US payroll data for Fed policy clues
Spot gold lost 0.3% to $3,346.47 per ounce, as of 0211 GMT, while U.S. gold futures edged down 0.1% to $3,357.20.
Gold appears to be consolidating at present within $3,320 to $3,360 range, with the market adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and ISM Services PMI data, rather than taking significant positions, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said.
Data released by ADP showed U.S. private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first decline in more than two years, as economic uncertainty hampered hiring. Meanwhile, low layoffs continued to anchor the labour market.
Investors are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday, which is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, according to a Reuters poll.
Meanwhile, the U.S. will impose a lower-than-promised 20% tariff on various goods from Vietnam, President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. The Southeast Asian nation is the U.S.' tenth-largest trading partner.
"The Vietnam trade deal has likely already been priced into the market, and I think the primary concern now is the status of other deals with major economies that are still in the limbo," Wong said.
The U.S. and India negotiators pushed to finalise a tariff-reducing deal ahead of Trump's July 9 deadline.
Trump has indicated no signs of extending the negotiation deadline despite stalled discussions with Japan, another key trade partner, but expressed optimism about an India deal.
Non-yielding gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment.
Spot silver fell 0.6% to $36.37 per ounce, platinum lost 1.5% to $1,397.91 and palladium shed 1.4% to $1,138.73.
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San Francisco Chronicle
22 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
How Ukraine can cope with the US pause on crucial battlefield weapons
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The decision by the United States to pause some weapons shipments to Ukraine has come at a tough time for Kyiv: Russia's bigger army is making a concerted push on parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line and is intensifying long-range drone and missile attacks that increasingly hammer civilians in Ukrainian cities. Washington has been Ukraine's biggest military backer since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022. But the Trump administration has been disengaging from the war, and no end to the fighting is in sight, despite recent direct peace talks. Specific weapons needed from U.S. Amid recurring concerns in Kyiv about how much military support its allies can supply and how quickly, Ukraine has raced to build up its domestic defense industry. The country's output has gradually grown, especially in the production of more and increasingly sophisticated drones, but Ukraine needs to speedily scale up production. Crucially, some high-tech U.S. weapons are irreplaceable. They include Patriot air defense missiles, which are needed to fend off Russia's frequent ballistic missile attacks, but which cost $4 million each. That vital system is included in the pause, and many cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, could become increasingly vulnerable. A senior Ukrainian official said Thursday that Patriot systems are 'critically necessary' for Ukraine, but U.S.-made HIMARS precision-guided missiles, also paused, are in less urgent need as other countries produce similar assets. 'Other countries that have these (Patriot) systems can only transfer them with U.S. approval. The real question now is how far the United States is willing to go in its reluctance to support Ukraine,' he told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the subject. The official said that Patriot missiles exist in sufficient numbers globally, and he said that accessing them requires political resolve. 'There are enough missiles out there,' he said, without providing evidence. He also stated that Ukraine has already scaled up its domestic production of 155 mm artillery shells, which were once critically short, and is now capable of producing more than is currently contracted. 'Supplies from abroad have also become more available than before,' he said. Backup plan Amid at times fraught relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been enlisting greater European help for his country's arms manufacturing plans. European countries don't have the production levels, military stockpiles or the technology to pick up all the slack left by the U.S. pause, but Zelenskyy is recruiting their help for ambitious joint investment projects. Draft legislation to help Ukrainian defense manufacturers scale up and modernize production, including building new facilities at home and abroad, will be put to a vote in the Ukrainian parliament later this month, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced this week. Zelenskyy said last month that major investments will go to the production of drones and artillery shells. 'The volume of support this year is the largest since the start of the full-scale war,' he said about commitments from foreign countries. Under Trump, there have been no new announcements of U.S. military or weapons aid to Ukraine. Between March and April, the United States allocated no new help at all, according to Germany's Kiel Institute, which tracks such support. For the first time since June 2022, four months after Russia's full-scale invasion, European countries have surpassed the U.S. in total military aid, totaling 72 billion euros ($85 billion) compared with 65 billion euros ($77 billion) from the U.S., the institute said last month. Big battlefield problem Without Patriot missiles, as well as the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile and shorter-range Stinger missiles that are also included in the pause, Ukrainian cities likely will take a bashing as more Russian missiles pierce air defenses. On the front line, Ukrainian troops haven't recently voiced complaints about ammunition shortages, as they have in the past. They have always said that during the war, they have never had as much ammunition to as their disposal as Russian forces. The army faces a different problem: It's desperately short-handed. It's turning to drones to compensate for its manpower shortage, and analysts say the front isn't about to collapse. 'This is war — and in war, steady deliveries are always crucial,' he said. ___ Barry Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal. ___
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq climb after better-than-expected jobs report
US stocks popped on Thursday as investors digested a stronger-than-expected June jobs report that dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut coming soon. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up about 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.6%, after both indices closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained roughly 0.2%. The jobs report showed an increase of 147,000 jobs added in June, versus expectations of 106,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1%, and the May payrolls print was revised higher. Recent signs of a softening in the labor market had given investors a new wave of confidence that a rate cut could come soon. But traders pared bets on rate cuts after the payrolls data, all but taking a July easing off the table. Trump's ongoing feud with its chair, Jerome Powell — particularly reports he may announce a successor early — has further buoyed hopes for a reduction in rates. The president said Powell "should resign immediately" in a social media post late Wednesday, ramping up an already intense White House pressure campaign. Investors are also on alert for fresh developments on the trade front, as countries race to beat the July 9 deadline for the resumption of sweeping tariffs. Trump's trade deal with Vietnam has boosted market sentiment and hopes for more agreements to fend off economic damage from tariffs. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs The US has lifted curbs on exports of chip design software to China, a sign of thawing in trade tensions between the world's top two economies. Shares of leading US providers of the software, Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), jumped in premarket trading. Meanwhile, the president's massive tax and spending bill is nearing a final vote after it cleared a key House procedural vote on Thursday. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he has the backing to get the legislation passed by Friday, July 4, Trump's deadline, as Republican leaders win over opponents. US stock trading will end early on Thursday at 1 p.m. ET for the Independence Day holiday and remain closed on Friday. US stocks rose Thursday morning after stronger-than-expected June jobs report that showed unemployment ticking down to 4.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.6%, after both indices closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.3%. Tech led the gains in stocks Thursday, with Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) leading the "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech stocks higher. Meta rose over 2% after an analyst at investing firm Needham upgraded the stock to Hold from Underperform, citing its "strong" labor productivity. A stronger-than-expected June jobs report has traders scaling back bets on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. Following the report, increasing bets on a July interest rate cut from the Fed reversed. Markets are now pricing in just a 5% chance the central bank lowers rates at its July meeting, down from a 24% chance seen a day prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders also grew more skeptical of a September move from the Fed, with markets now pricing in a 78% chance the Fed cuts by the end of its September meeting, down from a 94% chance seen a day prior. The June jobs report showed the US labor market remained more resilient than anticipated in the final month of the second quarter. The US economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, more than the 106,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to move higher, to 4.3%. In May, the US economy added 144,000 jobs while the unemployment held flat at 4.2%. Those figures were revised higher on Friday from a previously reported 139,000 job additions in May. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban reports in today's Morning Brief: Read more here. Earnings: No notable earnings releases. 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(DDOG) stock jumped 11% before the bell on Thursday after it was announced it would be joining the S&P 500. Datadog, which makes monitoring and analytic programs, will join the S&P 500 on July 9, replacing Juniper Networks, which was acquired by Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Robinhood (HOOD) stock fell over 1% in premarket trading following OpenAI's statement that Robinhood's sale of 'OpenAI tokens' will not give everyday consumers equity — or stock — in OpenAI, the company said in a post from its official newsroom account on X. Tripadvisor (TRIP) stock rose 6% before the bell following a report that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake of more than 9% in the travel review group. UK stocks and bonds bounced back from Wednesday's sharp selloff as Keir Starmer said Rachel Reeves will retain her role as finance minister for many years to come. The British prime minister was attempting to calm speculation about a possible exit of the chancellor of the Exchequer, after he failed to back a tearful Reeves in parliament on Wednesday. The yield on 30-year UK bonds dropped 10 basis points to 5.32%, coming back from a 19 basis point jump on Wednesday. The FTSE 250, which lists UK-focused stocks, moved up 0.5%. US Treasurys were also coming back after getting caught up in the UK gilt turmoil. The benchmark 10-year yield (^TNX) edged down roughly 2 basis points to 4.27% early on Thursday morning, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) slipped to around 4.79%. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. US stock markets will close early on Thursday, July 3, and trading will end at 1 p.m. ET. They will stay shuttered on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. The stock market will reopen on Monday, July 7, at 9:30 a.m. ET. After that, the remaining holidays in 2025 observed by the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are: Read more here about the 10 stock market holidays in 2025. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) rose in premarket trading by over 5% after the US removed export restrictions on chip design software shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Synopsys, Cadence and Siemens said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace and defence industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. Oil prices slipped after posting their strongest gain in nearly two weeks, as investors monitored ongoing US trade negotiations and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Bloomberg reports: Brent (BZ=F) traded near $69 a barrel after surging by 3% on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) above $67. President Donald Trump said he had struck a trade deal with Vietnam, which would be just the third announced following agreements with the UK and China, before a July 9 deadline to reach accords. Crude has been buffeted in recent weeks, surging and collapsing along with perceived geopolitical risk in the Middle East, although volatility and volumes have fallen in recent days before Friday's US holiday. Focus is returning to trade talks, and the associated tariffs that threaten oil demand, as well as to Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to agree on another bumper increase in supply quotas. 'While trade optimism provided a boost to oil prices, the sustainability of this move will likely be short-lived,' said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV. 'OPEC+ is set to decide on August output levels this weekend, and so the market will probably be cautious about carrying too much risk into the US long weekend.' Read more here. US stocks rose Thursday morning after stronger-than-expected June jobs report that showed unemployment ticking down to 4.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.6%, after both indices closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.3%. Tech led the gains in stocks Thursday, with Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) leading the "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech stocks higher. Meta rose over 2% after an analyst at investing firm Needham upgraded the stock to Hold from Underperform, citing its "strong" labor productivity. A stronger-than-expected June jobs report has traders scaling back bets on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. Following the report, increasing bets on a July interest rate cut from the Fed reversed. Markets are now pricing in just a 5% chance the central bank lowers rates at its July meeting, down from a 24% chance seen a day prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders also grew more skeptical of a September move from the Fed, with markets now pricing in a 78% chance the Fed cuts by the end of its September meeting, down from a 94% chance seen a day prior. The June jobs report showed the US labor market remained more resilient than anticipated in the final month of the second quarter. The US economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, more than the 106,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to move higher, to 4.3%. In May, the US economy added 144,000 jobs while the unemployment held flat at 4.2%. Those figures were revised higher on Friday from a previously reported 139,000 job additions in May. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban reports in today's Morning Brief: Read more here. Earnings: No notable earnings releases. Economic data: Nonfarm payrolls (June); Unemployment rate (June); Average hourly earnings; Average weekly hours worked (June); Labor force participation rate (June); Initial jobless claims (week ending June 28); Continuing claims (week ending May 24); Unit labor costs (first quarter final); S&P Global US Composite PMI (June final); ISM Services index (June); Federal Reserve Beige Book released; Durable goods orders (May final) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Investors are all smiles as 'Liberation Day' Part 2 looms June jobs report on deck as Fed rate cut bets heat up House vote moves Trump's megabill toward final vote US lifts chip design curbs on China in sign of thaw OpenAI condemns Robinhood's 'OpenAI tokens' Stock pickers shine, sniffing out value during market tumult Trump aims to shut trade loopholes China uses to evade tariffs Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) stock jumped 11% before the bell on Thursday after it was announced it would be joining the S&P 500. Datadog, which makes monitoring and analytic programs, will join the S&P 500 on July 9, replacing Juniper Networks, which was acquired by Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Robinhood (HOOD) stock fell over 1% in premarket trading following OpenAI's statement that Robinhood's sale of 'OpenAI tokens' will not give everyday consumers equity — or stock — in OpenAI, the company said in a post from its official newsroom account on X. Tripadvisor (TRIP) stock rose 6% before the bell following a report that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake of more than 9% in the travel review group. UK stocks and bonds bounced back from Wednesday's sharp selloff as Keir Starmer said Rachel Reeves will retain her role as finance minister for many years to come. The British prime minister was attempting to calm speculation about a possible exit of the chancellor of the Exchequer, after he failed to back a tearful Reeves in parliament on Wednesday. The yield on 30-year UK bonds dropped 10 basis points to 5.32%, coming back from a 19 basis point jump on Wednesday. The FTSE 250, which lists UK-focused stocks, moved up 0.5%. US Treasurys were also coming back after getting caught up in the UK gilt turmoil. The benchmark 10-year yield (^TNX) edged down roughly 2 basis points to 4.27% early on Thursday morning, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) slipped to around 4.79%. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. US stock markets will close early on Thursday, July 3, and trading will end at 1 p.m. ET. They will stay shuttered on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. The stock market will reopen on Monday, July 7, at 9:30 a.m. ET. After that, the remaining holidays in 2025 observed by the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are: Read more here about the 10 stock market holidays in 2025. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) rose in premarket trading by over 5% after the US removed export restrictions on chip design software shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Synopsys, Cadence and Siemens said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace and defence industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. Oil prices slipped after posting their strongest gain in nearly two weeks, as investors monitored ongoing US trade negotiations and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Bloomberg reports: Brent (BZ=F) traded near $69 a barrel after surging by 3% on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) above $67. President Donald Trump said he had struck a trade deal with Vietnam, which would be just the third announced following agreements with the UK and China, before a July 9 deadline to reach accords. Crude has been buffeted in recent weeks, surging and collapsing along with perceived geopolitical risk in the Middle East, although volatility and volumes have fallen in recent days before Friday's US holiday. Focus is returning to trade talks, and the associated tariffs that threaten oil demand, as well as to Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to agree on another bumper increase in supply quotas. 'While trade optimism provided a boost to oil prices, the sustainability of this move will likely be short-lived,' said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV. 'OPEC+ is set to decide on August output levels this weekend, and so the market will probably be cautious about carrying too much risk into the US long weekend.' Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
San Francisco Chronicle
22 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
The US labor market continues to surprise and the unemployment rate, against the odds, is falling
U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June as the American labor market continues to show surprising resilience despite uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policies. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, the Labor Department said Thursday. Hiring rose modestly from a revised 144,000 in May and beat economists expectations of fewer than 118,000 new jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate The U.S. job market has cooled considerably from red-hot days of 2021-2023 when the economy bounced back with unexpected strength from COVID-19 lockdowns and companies were desperate for workers. So far this year, employers have added an average 130,000 jobs a month, down from 168,000 in 2024 and an average 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. And, according to the data released Thursday, it's getting harder to find a new job if you lose one. But the June numbers were surprisingly strong. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. But the federal government lost 7,000, probably reflecting Trump's hiring freeze. Manufacturers shed 7,000 jobs. Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and June payrolls. The number of unemployed people fell by 222,000. Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% year-over-year number considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The U.S. labor force — the count of those working and looking for work — fell by 130,000 last month following a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump's immigration deportations — and the fear of them — to push foreign workers out of the labor force. Hiring decelerated after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. But the economy did not collapse, defying widespread predictions that the higher borrowing costs would cause a recession. Companies kept hiring, just at a more modest pace. Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump's policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs. Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. The erratic way that Trump has rolled out his tariffs — announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones — has left businesses bewildered. The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump's tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed cut rates three times last year after inflation cooled but has turned cautious in 2025. "Today's results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,'' Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. With unemployment low, most Americans enjoy job security. But as hiring has cooled over the past couple of years it's become harder for young people or those re-entering the workforce to find jobs, leading to longer job searches or longer spells of unemployment. The Labor Department said the number of discouraged workers, who believe no jobs are available for them, rose by 256,000 last month to 637,000. When he was laid off earlier this year from his job as a communications manager for a city government in the Seattle area, Derek Wing braced for the worst. 'The word I would use is: 'terrifying''' to describe the experience, he said. Lots of big local employers like Microsoft continue to cut jobs. And he'd heard horror stories of people applying for jobs and then – crickets. 'I had a couple of experiences where I would apply for a job and just feel like it was going out into the ether and never hearing back,'' he said. But Wing's fortunes turned quickly. He applied for an opening with Gesa Credit Union. 'When I saw the job, it immediately felt right,'' he said. 'I actually told my wife: 'This is the job I want.'' Six weeks later – 'superfast in this economy'' -- he had a job as a communications strategist for Gesa. The Richland, Washington, credit union had revamped its hiring process to be easier and more transparent for applicants when it was tough to find workers in the hiring boom that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. 'It was really an employee's market for a while,'' said Cheryl Adamson, Gesa's chief risk officer. 'Then the winds have shifted a little bit more in favor of the employer.''
