What Happens When US Economic Data Can't Be Trusted?
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Last week, while many in the US were focused on court orders and secret flights to El Salvador, something else happened that we at Trumponomics think should have gotten more attention. President Donald Trump fired two commissioners on the US Federal Trade Commission— apparently for being members of the Democratic Party. And while firing federal employees —legally or otherwise—is common practice in Trump's Washington, it's not supposed to happen at an independent agency—not like this anyway. But if it can happen to officials there, that raises questions about whether folks at other independent bodies, even senior people like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, could be arbitrarily jettisoned, too.
That in turn made us think about developments in other corners of Washington that are raising red flags about the independence and oversight not only of agencies that implement economic and regulatory policies, but the data itself—data on which the world judges the health of the American economy. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Elon Musk have been floating trial balloons on this topic of late.
So on this week's episode, we've invited David Wilcox, director of US economic research for Bloomberg Economics, and editor Molly Smith to discuss the historical echoes of Trump's move. Wilcox addresses existing legal restrictions on the Republican's ability to fire independent officials, whether the Republican-appointee controlled Supreme Court is waiting for a chance to further empower the executive and what could happen when US economic data can no longer be trusted.
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Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US Allies Wary of Buying American as They Plan Defense Buildup
(Bloomberg) — For European countries that just approved the biggest increase in military spending in decades, 'Buy American' is looking a lot less appealing than it once was. They may have no choice. As the allies rush to rebuild their fighting forces, leaders are confronting the reality that they'll have to rely on the US for many of the new weapons they're planning to buy, a sales pitch driven home by President Donald Trump on his visit to Europe this week. They fret that they may be put at greater risk if they deepen their dependence on a US whose president has embraced their main enemy - Russia - and rattled some with threats to annex their territory. Those deeper ties have become an increasingly hard sell at home, with electorates cautious about a closer embrace with the US. Allied leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron have pushed for relying on European companies to provide the weapons and the EU fast-tracked a €150 billion facility for just that purpose after Trump was elected. Canada is considering pulling out of the US-led F-35 fighter program and buying Swedish planes instead. 'We should no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America,' Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said earlier this month. When a group of US legislators went to Copenhagen this spring to encourage Danish officials to buy more US weapons, the message they got was clear: we like your arms, but Trump's very public threats to take over Greenland, a Danish territory, were making buying them politically difficult, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Some Danish politicians have gone further. 'Buying American weapons is a security risk that we cannot run,' Rasmus Jarlov, a conservative lawmaker who heads the defense committee in parliament, said in a post on social media platform X in March. Trump's abrupt decision to briefly suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine earlier this year alarmed allies, according to officials, fueling fears that the US might hobble American-made weapons in a crisis. The worries got so bad that the Pentagon had to issue a public reassurance that the F-35 fighter didn't have a 'kill switch.' But the planned buildup - worth as much as €14 trillion ($16 trillion) over the next decade if related infrastructure is included, according to Carlyle - is far beyond the current capabilities of a fragmented European defense sector that's been hollowed out by decades of cuts since the end of the Cold War. And the US lead in key areas, especially missiles and other high-tech weapons, means there's often no real alternative to buying American. 'Europe and the defense industry is not, at the moment, ready to take the load by itself,' said Tuure Lehtoranta, a senior executive at Finnish defense-tech firm Insta Group Oy. 'There's not enough production, there's not enough design in some areas.' German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose government is planning to nearly double spending on core defense items this year, said the European industry needs an overhaul to meet the demand. 'We have far too many systems in Europe, we have far too few units, and what we produce is often far too complicated, and therefore too expensive as a result,' he said this week. At the Paris Air Show last week, executives from Airbus SE and Dassault Aviation SA sparred openly over who should take charge of their next-generation fighter jet project. European allies will have no alternative but to buy American weapons to meet alliance targets, especially with stocks depleted by supplies given to Ukraine, a senior NATO official said, asking not to be identified discussing a sensitive issue. Allies also lack key technologies. 'Who is the European Palantir? Who is the European Planet?' asked Pierre Vandier, a top NATO commander, referring to the US technology and satellite companies that the alliance recently signed contracts with. 'It's a huge stimulus for Europeans to do all they can. If they don't get started now they can't cry if there are violent power struggles later.' Europe has no rivals as advanced as Lockheed Martin Corp's F-35 fighter or RTX Corp's Patriot anti-missile, which has been critical to protecting Ukraine from Russian attacks. Allies have no competitors for key capabilities like ballistic-missile defense and air-to-air refueling. While simpler weapons like howitzers are easier for allies to produce, they still require US satellite systems for precision targeting. The UK said this week it would buy at least a dozen new F-35As, which Prime Minister Keir Starmer hopes will help curry favor with Trump. European defense companies are hopeful. They've seen share-price increases of 50% or more this year, ahead even of the big gains of their US competitors, as investors anticipate the huge boost in business. 'More urgency is there now,' Micael Johansson, chief executive officer of Saab AB, which makes Gripen fighters, said in an interview. 'I wouldn't say we have seen a dramatic shift now to buy more European, but I think that's the trend.' US defense contractors are lining up cooperation deals with European counterparts to hedge against any shift away from American weapons. 'As these European defense budgets increase, that's where we're spending our time,' Stephen O'Bryan, president of Northrop Grumman Corp's international business, said in an interview, referring to partnerships in Norway, Germany and Denmark. Lehtoranta of Insta said his company already partners with big US manufacturers like Lockheed Martin, including by providing avionics maintenance and other support for F-35 jets. But they see American companies are even hungrier to join forces now. 'I can see in the US that it might be a little bit of a fear in the air. US companies think that they might lose opportunities if they don't find the right partners,' he said. 'There will be change, there will be probably more European investments in European factories and European acquisitions, but still we cannot survive without the US industries.' —With assistance from Wojciech Moskwa, Thomas Seal, Matthew Boesler, Michael Nienaber, Sanne Wass and Alex Wickham. 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Politico
22 minutes ago
- Politico
How Trump could get his July 4 megabill
Presented by IN TODAY'S EDITION:— When the Senate might vote on the megabill— Lawmakers consider Kaine's Iran resolution— Possible federal pension changes incoming Republicans' 'big, beautiful bill' is in tatters. President Donald Trump still wants it on his desk by July 4. Here's everything that will have to go right to make that happen: GOP senators and staff now believe Saturday is the earliest voting will start on the bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged Thursday that parliamentarian rulings forcing Republicans to rewrite key provisions of the bill are throwing his timeline into chaos. A Saturday vote would assume no more major procedural issues, but that is not assured: Republicans could run into trouble with their use of current policy baseline, the accounting tactic they want to use to zero-out the cost of tax-cut extensions. Other adverse recommendations from Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough could force additional redrafts of Republicans' tax plans. Even if Republicans resolve every outstanding issue with the parliamentarian in the next 24 hours, Thune needs to firm up his whip count. The cap on state provider taxes remains among the thorniest issues, with senators threatening to block debate on the megabill until the Medicaid financing issue is resolved. If the Senate does vote Saturday to proceed, expect Democrats to use the bulk of their 10 hours of debate time, while Republicans forfeit most of theirs. Then comes the main event — vote-a-rama — which would set up likely final passage for sometime Sunday. That starts the timer for the House. GOP leaders there have pledged to give members 48 hours' notice of a vote — and they have already advised the earliest that voting could happen is Monday evening. Republicans will have to adopt a rule before moving to debate and final passage. But the House's timeline depends wholly on what condition the megabill is in when it arrives from the Senate. Groups of House Republicans are already drawing red lines on matters ranging from SALT to clean-energy tax credits to public land sales. The hope is that the Senate will take care of those concerns in one final 'wraparound' amendment at the end of vote-a-rama. If they don't, House GOP leaders are adamant that there will need to be changes — likely pushing the timeline deep into July, or perhaps beyond. For one, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said Thursday the Senate's slower phase-out of clean-energy tax credits 'will need to be reversed,' or else. 'If there are major modifications that we cannot accept, then we would go back to the drawing board, fix some of that and send it back over,' Speaker Mike Johnson said on Thursday. 'So we should avoid that process, if possible.' TGIF. Well, unless you're in the Senate, where Sen. John Boozman politely told Lisa to be prepared to work through the weekend. Email us at lkashinsky@ mmccarthy@ crazor@ and bguggenheim@ Follow our live coverage at More live coverage: Starting at 10 a.m., the Supreme Court will issue the final opinions of its current term on birthright citizenship, abortion, congressional lines in Louisiana, the FCC and more. Follow along at for real-time analysis from our legal, politics and policy reporters. IN MEMORIAM — Former Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who successfully ran for Congress in 1996 as a crusader for gun control after a mass shooting on a New York commuter train left her husband dead and her son severely wounded, has died. She was 81. THE SKED The House is in session and voting on a resolution condemning riots in Los Angeles at 10 a.m. — House members will receive a briefing on the Iran conflict from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Gen. Dan Caine and CIA Director John Ratcliffe in the CVC auditorium at 9 a.m. The Senate is in session and will vote on moving forward with Sen. Tim Kaine's war powers resolution on Iran at 6 p.m. Next week: House and Senate Republicans will attempt to pass their megabill before July 4. THE LEADERSHIP SUITE Senators consider check on war powers Senators are expected to take an initial vote at 6 p.m. on Kaine's resolution that would bar the president from taking further military action in Iran without congressional approval. Kaine believes Republicans will support the measure, but won't say who or how many. Several GOP senators left a Thursday briefing on the conflict not entirely convinced by Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear program has been obliterated, Calen and Lisa report with our Connor O'Brien, Joe Gould and John Sakellariadis. Sen. Rand Paul — who is consistently critical of U.S. military interventions — has been mum on how he'll vote. But he signaled the answer could come in the floor speech he plans to give ahead of the vote. Democrats will lose Sen. John Fetterman. 'I want to make sure to reserve the right for the president, Democrat or Republican, to do the kinds of things that President Obama has done in the past or what Trump did with Iran,' Fetterman told reporters Thursday. House members will have their Iran briefing at 9 a.m. This comes as some House lawmakers are mulling two competing war powers resolutions, which Johnson could attempt to quash in advance using a rule. Johnson, Jeffries team up on member security Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries emerged from a meeting on member security pledging 'change' and tapping their deputies on House Administration to 'immediately' and 'aggressively chart the path forward.' The House leaders issued a joint statement Thursday saying they 'recognize the urgency of acting quickly, decisively, and in a bipartisan manner' but did not detail potential changes. Jeffries had been pushing Johnson to 'substantially increase' the amount of money the House spends on member security. POLICY RUNDOWN PENSION PROBLEM PATCH — Senate Republicans are considering a tweak to their pension reform plan that would hike how much federal employees need to contribute to their retirement, according to draft reconciliation text from Senate Homeland Security our Lawrence Ukenye scooped. Lawmakers are considering hiking federal employees' retirement contributions to 15.6 percent of their salary, as opposed to the 9.4 percent required in the first version. The bill would also carve out an exemption for members of Congress and their staff. FRESH BYRD DROPPINGS — Senate Banking Republicans are now proposing to slash the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's funding by almost half, after the parliamentarian deemed their initial plan to zero out the bureau's funding ineligible, our Jasper Goodman reports. The parliamentarian signed off on the new proposal late Thursday. The parliamentarian also ruled Republicans' bid to deregulate gun silencers is noncompliant, part of a new batch of decisions that hit overnight. The parliamentarian also asked Senate Commerce to rework the 10-year moratorium on enforcing state artificial intelligence laws that she initially approved to make clear it wouldn't impact $42 billion in broadband funding, our Anthony Adragna reported earlier Thursday. One win for Republicans: The parliamentarian approved Republicans' tweaked plan to push some costs of the nation's anti-hunger program onto states, our Grace Yarrow reports. That allows them to maintain a crucial $41 billion spending cut that will help pay for the megabill. LAND SALES LANDSLIDING — Five House Republicans are threatening to vote down the GOP megabill if the Senate includes a provision to sell public lands for development, after Sen. Mike Lee sought to include a narrowed version of his proposal in the bill this week, our James Bikales reports. In a letter led by Rep. Ryan Zinke, Reps. Mike Simpson, Dan Newhouse, Cliff Bentz and David Valadao warned they would not support a package that included Lee's proposed land sales language. But it may not even get through the Senate. Sen. Steve Daines said he has the votes to strike it during a vote-a-rama: 'We're ready,' he said. REVENGE TAX AXED — Senate Republicans abruptly dropped the 'revenge tax' from their megabill after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new 'joint understanding' with members of the G7. Republicans originally intended to use the tax to retaliate against foreign countries for 'discriminatory' taxes levied against U.S. companies. Bessent said on X that, under the new understanding, part of an OECD framework brokered under former President Joe Biden no longer applies to American companies. But dropping the revenge tax language also means Senate Republicans lose a whopping $52 billion revenue-raiser and may have to look for additional savings elsewhere. D'ESPOSITO OUT, FOR NOW — Senate HELP reversed plans to vote on Trump's Labor Department IG pick Thursday afternoon, our Nick Niedzwiadek reports. A committee spokesperson didn't comment on why HELP removed the nominee, former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, from the docket. He could still come up for a vote in the future. D'Esposito lost a close race for reelection last year after The New York Times reported he had placed romantic connections on his congressional payroll. MORE CRYPTO MACHINATIONS — Senate Banking Republicans won't take up cryptocurrency market structure legislation until September, the latest twist in senators' standoff with the House over how to advance legislation governing digital assets, Jasper reports. There's a chance draft text could be released before August recess, though. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott's decision to punt past August recess comes as House Financial Services Republicans weigh marrying market structure legislation to their version of the stablecoin regulatory bill. Senate Republicans and Trump are pressing the House to quickly pass a 'clean' version of the Senate's stablecoin bill. Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E: CAMPAIGN STOP TEXAS DEMS DUKE IT OUT — Former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O'Rourke, Rep. Joaquin Castro and state Rep. James Talarico met virtually last month to sort out who among them would run for Senate, The Dallas Morning News reports. Problem is, they're all interested. That could dash some Texas Democrats' dreams that the four would slot themselves into a slate for top statewide offices. The group is set to meet again this summer. Democrats have one candidate in the race: former NASA astronaut and International Space Station commander Terry Virts. MEANWHILE, IN KENTUCKY — Businessman Nate Morris entered the GOP primary to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell. Separately, Axios reported the super PAC Trump's political operation launched to oust Rep. Thomas Massie is going up with its first TV ad against Massie, part of a $1 million buy. It highlights votes Massie's taken against Trump-backed legislation and claims that by criticizing the president's decision to strike Iran, he 'sided' with the nation's supreme leader. TUNNEL TALK DACA DO-OVER — House appropriators added a proposal to allow DACA recipients to work in Congress in the Legislative Branch funding bill, with an amendment sponsored by Rep. Pete Aguilar, our Katherine Tully-McManus reports. Similar amendments have been adopted before, only to be nixed later by GOP leaders to appease hard-liners. Also in the bill: The panel voted to move forward with the nearly 50 percent cut to the Government Accountability Office and to keep the decade-long freeze on lawmaker's salaries in place. They also did not take up a few amendments on member security, despite recent concern from both sides of the aisle about lawmaker safety. THE BEST OF THE REST Republicans Say Tax Cuts Will Spur Growth. It Hasn't Worked in the Past., from Carl Hulse at The New York Times USAID Shutdown Costs Top $6 Billion, Internal Estimate Shows, from Ian Kullgren and Jack Fitzgerald at Bloomberg Government JOB BOARD Jonathan Kupperman has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Jodey Arrington. He most recently was his health policy adviser. Anthony Fakhoury has been promoted to be comms director for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Landon Hoffman has been promoted to be chief of staff for Rep. Laurel Lee. Jason Berardo has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Mike Turner. Lizzie Harvey is now press secretary for Sen. Mike Lee. She most recently was deputy press secretary for Sen. John Barrasso. HAPPY BIRTHDAY Reps. David Scott (8-0) and Ashley Hinson… Jennifer DeCasper … Semafor's Eleanor Mueller … New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte … former Reps. Conor Lamb, Scott Taylor, Mike Honda, Jim Nussle and Jeff Miller … Hunter Morgen … Terry Nelson of FP1 Strategies … Reuters' David Shepardson … David Wochner of K&L Gates … Isaac Reyes of Target … Hub Project's Jessica Floyd … Robert Schlesinger … Matt Letourneau … Brian Martinez of the American Conservation Coalition … Thorn Run Partners' Harriet Melvin and Carmen Ojeda … Kathleen Welch … Bailey Ware of Sen. Dan Sullivan's office … Bullpen Strategies' Becca Atkins TRIVIA THURSDAY'S ANSWER: Piper Merritt correctly answered that Bill Clinton issued the Roadless Area Conservation Rule in 2001 to protect national forests. TODAY'S QUESTION, from Piper: Which House committee celebrated its 200th birthday in 2020? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@
CNN
25 minutes ago
- CNN
‘We're still here. We're still going to enjoy our game': What it's like being a trans sports fan in Trump's second term
The first six months of Donald Trump's second term as president of the United States have been defined by sweeping executive orders and the introduction of legislation that takes aim at some of America's most marginalized communities. In particular, transgender people living in the US have been a target of the Trump administration's ire. Several actions have been taken to prevent trans people from participating in public life, from banning transgender Americans from serving in the military to an executive order that bans transgender women from competing in women's sports. Trans athletes, especially, have been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration over the last few months. There have been threats to California's federal funding over the participation of a trans high school junior in state track and field championships and in March, the White House cut off $175 million in federal funds for the University of Pennsylvania related to the trans athlete issue. As the US gears up to be one of three countries hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup next June – the first on American soil since 1994 – the spotlight is turning towards its sporting scene. And as the attention of the world's sports media shifts to the US, a number of athletes and soccer fans, including many trans people themselves, are raising the alarm over the attacks on trans rights. Some want to use the upcoming World Cup – the largest international soccer tournament there is and arguably the most popular global event, sporting or otherwise – to show the world that the trans community in the US takes care of one another, refusing to disappear even as the Trump administration attempts to make life difficult for them. Many just want trans people to have the right to play and enjoy sports as freely as anyone else. Liam Taylor is a season ticket holder of MLS franchise the Colorado Rapids, an overseas fan of English club Tottenham Hotspur, and a former high school powerlifting champion. He is also a trans man who was immensely looking forward to a World Cup in his home nation – but not anymore. 'My wife and I are so into the World Cup, we usually keep a track of every game in the competition. We were so excited for it to be here, where we live. But honestly, now, it doesn't feel safe to travel to certain parts of the US, so we won't be spending our money on that anymore,' Taylor told CNN Sports. Taylor says he largely feels safe as a trans man living in the Centennial State with a supportive community around him, but he used to live in Dallas, Texas – a decidedly Republican state. 'Some of my friends in Dallas are bracing for a more hostile environment towards LGBTQ+ people. And not just in Texas but across the South, really,' Taylor said. One of the reasons Taylor left the Lone Star State is that it was starting to become more and more difficult for him to access the hormones he needed. He is no stranger to experiencing discrimination towards the trans community but sports and, in particular, soccer have often been his solace. He's happy that his beloved Colorado Rapids still hosted its designated Pride night, despite the ongoing exclusion towards transpeople in sports that the Trump administration is fostering, but he told CNN Sports that he is struggling to put an optimistic spin on the current political climate. 'It's scary to think that a percentage of your neighbors really hate you. I try not to be a pessimist, but it's difficult not to get down about it all right now,' he said. 'There's a huge hypocrisy amongst conservatives and the Trump administration, who say we should 'Keep politics out of sport' – but they're doing something political by pushing (queer and trans) people out of sport!' Referring to Trump's executive order to ban trans women from sports, Taylor made the point that the practice is not only harmful to trans athletes but to cisgender ones, too. 'The Trump administration says that they're doing this, banning trans players, to 'protect women and girls,' but who are we protecting when the privacy of athletes is being violated because of enforced (sex) checks?' said Taylor. 'How exactly authorities in schools, colleges and sporting institutions are going to 'check' someone is or isn't trans is incredibly unclear and could potentially be very invasive.' Taylor is deeply concerned that the Trump administration's anti-trans policies are going to encourage hostility towards trans people at sporting events and other public gatherings. He reflected on the transphobia that he himself experienced, particularly while he was transitioning, and told CNN Sports that he fears an uptick in the same kind of behavior in the new America being shaped by Trump. 'In 2016, back in Texas, I was followed into bathrooms, some guys tried to fight me at a truck stop, and it wasn't safe to be there anymore,' Taylor said. 'I'm seeing that kind of thing happen now, to other trans folks, more and more. I'm trying now to do what I can with my passing privilege – going to protests on behalf of people that want to go but don't feel safe to do so, donating specifically to LGBTQ+ charities.' Despite the fears around the discrimination against trans athletes and sports fans right now, Taylor does find comfort in the community he's found in soccer and in the Colorado Rapids fanbase. 'We won't be skipping any home games this season. Our friends are there, and we'll be there, all of us, to support each other while all this is going down under Trump,' he said. Almost 1,000 miles away in Los Angeles, Taylor Gray has also found a family in the soccer club LAFC and, in particular, its LGBTQ+ supporters' group – LAFC Pride Republic. 'Joining LAFC Pride Republic felt like coming home,' Gray, who is a trans man, told CNN Sports. Until he joined the supporters' group, Gray said he had never met another trans person. LAFC Pride Republic has become so important to Gray's life that he even proposed to his husband on the pitch at LAFC's BMO Stadium. As the Trump administration moves to roll back trans inclusion in sports, Gray has found that the feeling amongst his friends at Pride Republic is one of resilience. 'Every time I go to a game at the moment, people are constantly discussing how we can be louder, how to be more visible, how to show that we aren't going anywhere regardless of what this government is trying to do,' he said. 'We want to inspire other soccer teams and supporters' groups who don't know what to do right now. We want to show that it's important to say we're still here, we're still going to enjoy our game and we're still going to be visibly trans.' Amid a changing political landscape, LAFC and the American soccer community have been preparing for increased international attention as the FIFA Club World Cup continues across the US in advance of next year's World Cup. LAFC competed in the tournament group stage and Gray hopes that soccer fans traveling to the States will see that there are people who don't support the policies of the Trump administration and, instead, will fervently defend the rights of marginalized communities. 'For every jerk you might meet in the US, there are 10 people here that will love you regardless of your gender identity or sexuality,' Gray said. 'We can't let the good work that people are doing to provide support to their communities fall to the side. It's so important to uplift the folks that are looking out for those that are being excluded right now.' As many institutions, companies and corporations across the US rescind their diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies in the wake of the Trump administration's push to end these initiatives, Gray is proud that LAFC and Pride Republic are standing firm in their values. 'Despite everything else around us, Pride Republic is not changing what its goals are – which is to make sure that soccer is a sport that welcomes everyone. Inclusivity is an incredibly important word for Pride Republic and that isn't going away.' Soccer, and particularly men's soccer, does not always feel like a welcoming space for LGBTQ+ people. In France's top division, Ligue 1, two high profile players were recently given bans for concealing the anti-homophobia badge on their club's shirts. Homophobic chanting continues to be an issue across European soccer. The beautiful game has all too often been marred by unsavory incidents of bigotry. But what Gray has found at LAFC Pride Republic and what Taylor has found amongst his friends in the Colorado Rapids' fanbase stand in opposition to what has been seen before in soccer and in the Trump administration's rhetoric. In the communities that the two have discovered, soccer is for everyone and anyone is welcome to share in the joy and the anguish of the game. Both men say they have found a home in the stands of their respective clubs. As the Trump administration shows no signs of slowing down its attempts to exclude trans people from competing in sports, communities across the United States are fighting back to show that they won't be silenced or made to feel invisible – and they aren't planning to give up.
