MLB AL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Odds, expert picks, including Cam Smith, Jacob Wilson, Roman Anthony
Wilson is a -110 favorite at BetMGM whereas Smith is +105. Wilson's teammate, Nick Kurtz hangs around at +550 and the No. 1 prospect in the MLB right behind him. I have a 0.5 unit bet on Boston's Roman Anthony (No. 1 prospect) at +1200 odds and he still roams around that number, but his production doesn't rival Smith's.
While a case could be made for Wilson as he ranks second in the MLB with a .335 batting average, or Anthony because he is raking .345 to start July after hitting .210 in June, or maybe even Kurtz who has 14 homers, including nine over the last month!
However, this is becoming Smith's award to lose and he's setting himself apart from the field in more ways than just his hitting.
American League Rookie of the Year: Cam Smith (+150)
Cam Smith is a former No. 14 overall pick of the Cubs last year, but he was a part of the trade that sent Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago — so Smith is living up to his expectations as a part of that deal — as much as he can anyway.
No player among the top eight in the AL Rookie of the Year race has increased their odds more than Smith -- who was 80-to-1 entering the season at BetMGM!
That's because Smith has raised his batting average almost every month as seen below.
.125 in March (8 AB)
.224 in April (67 AB)
.307 in May (75 AB)
.303 in June (89 AB)
.350 in July (40 AB)
Entering the July 9th games, Smith is batting .343 over the last seven days and .348 in the past 30 days, so he's stayed hot and has 21 multi-hit games on the year.
The potential impact of being a star player has been shown. He has seven home runs, a .287 batting average, 2.3 WAR, 38 runs scored, 80 hits, and 39 RBIs, which the latter two rank second among all rookies. However, he's made a significant splash on defense to the point where managers and experts are claiming he will be a gold glover.
There are stats to back that up to. According to the Outs Above Average metric at Baseball Savant and the Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved stat, Smith ranks second out of all right fielders to in Outs Above Average with four (ranks behind Fernando Tatis Jr.) and second, again, with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (trails only Adolis Garcia).
Smith is a dynamic two-way player, and once Jacob Wilson's batting average drops below .300 in the second half of the season, Smith will overthrow him as the favorite — some markets even have the two tied or a 5 to 10-cent difference per dollar, so time is running out to get involved with Smith.
I played Cam Smith at +150 to win AL ROY and would go down to -110 odds for 2 units. He is +100 or better everywhere as of July 9. I still like Roman Anthony as a 0.5 unit bet at +1000 or better as well.
Pick: Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year (2u)
Vaughn Dalzell's MLB Futures Card
2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130)
2 units: Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year (+150)
2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110)
1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450)
1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300)
1 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+100)
1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430)
1 unit: New York Yankees to win AL East (+115)
0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650)
0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400)
0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200)
0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800)
0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000)
0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win. AL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500)
0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000)
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