Mark Carney's popularity cooling off in the summer, but still remains broadly positive: poll
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Abacus Data says the Carney-led Liberal government's approval dipped to 50 per cent in its latest polling, down two percentage points compared to mid-July and the lowest level since March.
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Canadians were surveyed in the week after U.S. President Donald Trump levied new 35 per cent tariffs on Canada — seemingly a consequence of failing to secure a new trade deal by the Aug. 1 deadline.
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Carney himself maintains a positive net approval rating despite a couple percentage points of mild cooling.
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National Observer
an hour ago
- National Observer
Trudeau-era climate policies hang in the balance as Carney seeks grand bargain to build
As Prime Minister Mark Carney's government prepares its fall budget, discussions of striking a 'grand bargain' between the environment and economy are raging. The tariff war with the United States is the backdrop to the grand bargain negotiations. Carney wants to strengthen the Canadian economy with his major projects agenda, and needs the provinces and territories working cooperatively with him on his vision. But some premiers see an opportunity to knock down climate policies that would further unleash the fossil fuel sector as the price of cooperation. The other big picture consideration is the climate crisis, and growing urgency to slash emissions to prevent more damage. Last year was the country's most expensive year on record for extreme weather exacerbated by the warming atmosphere, clocking in at over $8 billion in insured damages alone, according to a recent report from Swiss Re. Wayne Long, secretary of state for the Canada Revenue Agency, recently said the budget will expand on the major projects agenda with a major focus on regulatory changes to incentivize investment. Those regulatory changes, which could see the cancelling of the oil and gas emissions cap before it ever came into place, promise to invigorate a familiar battle between environmentalists and the fossil fuel sector over the direction of the country's economy. Experts interviewed by Canada's National Observer say this grand bargain approach is the wrong framing and point out that past efforts have backfired. Simon Donner, climate scientist and professor at the University of British Columbia who chairs the Net-Zero Advisory Body, said given the economic threat from the US it's reasonable that the government is trying to coax provinces to cooperate. But he's worried that if Ottawa loses sight of its long-term decarbonization goals, both the climate and the economy will suffer. Today's grand bargain discussion is reminiscent of past political debates, Donner says. A decade ago, under Justin Trudeau, balancing the economy with the environment was a stated priority and resulted in provinces signing onto the Pan-Canadian Climate Framework, which included carbon pricing, in exchange for Ottawa purchasing the Trans Mountain expansion project to get Alberta bitumen to new markets. Striking a deal between the climate and fossil fuel development is a tantalizing goal for Prime Minister Mark Carney, but this grand bargain approach is the wrong framing that backfires anyway experts say. 'We fell for this idea that you had to choose between the economy and the environment… in fact what you're really doing is choosing between today and tomorrow,' he said. 'So my worry is we're so stuck in trying to square this old debate when it was never the right debate in the first place.' Policies under threat The oil and gas emissions cap, first proposed by Trudeau in 2021 and frequently touted by his government on the world stage as a symbol of Canadian climate leadership, is likely to be dropped in favour of tougher industrial carbon pricing. A briefing note prepared last year for then-finance minister Chrystia Freeland about the proposed oil and gas emissions cap — which Canada's National Observer obtained with a federal access to information request — notes the oil and gas sector is the country's largest source of emissions, with nearly half coming from the oilsands subsector. The heavily redacted briefing also confirmed the policy would be 'technically feasible' for companies to achieve and help Canada reach its emission reduction goals. But that was a different government. In contrast, Carney's election platform pledged to improve industrial carbon pricing but did not commit to the cap. In June, the Toronto Star reported the cap was on the chopping block. The oil and gas industry consistently opposed the policy, which would cut emissions using a cap and trade system. Climate experts have said targeting fossil fuel industry emissions is vital for the country to meet its emission reduction targets, given the oil and gas sector's emissions have grown and are now responsible for a third of Canada's entire total, wiping out progress made by other sectors. On June 1, Carney, Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodsgon, Minister for Canada-U.S. Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs and One Canadian Economy Dominic Leblanc, and others met with oil and gas executives from Tourmaline Oil, Imperial Oil, Cenovus Energy, MEG Energy, the Pathways Alliance and others in Calgary. The meeting was reportedly to discuss Carney's plan to develop Canada as a so-called energy superpower. It is not known precisely what was discussed, but those oil and gas executives have recently been on the record demanding the gutting of environmental regulations they claim choke their growth. 'We continue to believe the federal government's cap on emissions creates uncertainty, is redundant, will limit growth and unnecessarily result in production cuts, and stifle infrastructure investments,' reads an open letter from 38 oil and gas companies published after April's federal election. However, oil and gas executives aren't stopping there. They are pushing for a major clawback of environmental safeguards, and want the West Coast tanker ban and the federal industrial carbon pricing scrapped. Carney promised to strengthen the latter during his campaign and, if it were abandoned, it would give companies virtually unfettered ability to spew carbon pollution. The former, meanwhile, is seen as a precursor to reviving the Northern Gateway pipeline. That executive meeting was far from the only one with federal officials. The Canadian Association for Petroleum Producers, the apex lobby group for the fossil fuel industry, recorded 13 meetings in May and June, the most recent months available on the federal lobbyist registry, with government officials like PMO policy coordinator Joshua Swift, Hodgson and his chief of staff Eamonn McGuinty, and several deputy ministers at Environment and Climate Change Canada. Among the organization's stated list of priorities are accelerating approval of major projects like LNG terminals and persuading the government to 'not proceed' with the proposed oil and gas emissions cap to focus on 'other effective collaborative solutions.' On a recent earnings call, Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel, one of the signatories to the open-letter, told investors the federal government was not creating the conditions for investment to occur, pointing to the emissions cap and West Coast tanker ban as obstacles. In another breath, he assured investors the company would deliver between $40 billion and $45 billion in dividends to shareholders over the next five years. Other Options In 2022, the federal government presented two options when developing the cap. The selected option was a new cap and trade system, but the other option was setting a specific carbon price that would make it worthwhile for the oil and gas industry to drive emissions down. It's possible Carney will reach back to that draft paper for guidance. Privately, some climate advocates who had pushed hard for an emissions cap are coming to grips with the probability it will be axed and are now seeking strong alternatives. If some groups are quietly determining their position, others are vocal. In July, Clean Prosperity — which had never been in favour of the cap — recommended Ottawa cancel the cap and the clean electricity regulations, while strengthening carbon pricing. The group says those policies have 'created significant tensions with provinces, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan,' and would be 'unnecessary with strong carbon markets.' Clean Prosperity recorded eight meetings in May and June with federal officials, according to the federal lobbyist registry. They include two conversations with Swift, as well as meetings with Caroline Lee, chief of staff to Environment and Climate Change Minister Julie Dabrusin, Natural Resources Minister Hodgson and his chief of staff, and Aaron Wudrick, director of policy under Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Similarly, the Canadian Climate Institute weeks later published its own study arguing that strengthening industrial carbon pricing and dropping the cap is the better path for emissions reductions. The reasons are technical, but essentially the group's modelling found that overlapping the emissions cap with carbon pricing policies could inadvertently weaken decarbonizing efforts. Donner said it's possible to achieve the same carbon pollution reductions using an improved industrial price, but unless there is a credible proposal for how that will be done, it's risky. 'We removed the consumer carbon price, but we've yet to replace it with anything,' he said. 'So that took one of the jenga blocks out. You can't keep pulling blocks out. At some point the tower is going to collapse.' Donner said any negotiation with the provinces has to involve strengthening the industrial carbon price at its centre. 'The government can't give in on that,' he said. 'The industrial pricing system, if strengthened, can be a foundation of climate policy going forward. It is not, however, nearly enough on its own. 'We need complimentary efforts on transportation, buildings, electricity, industrial policy and other areas not just to cut emissions, but to prepare Canada for a low-carbon world.' 'Just fossil fuel deals' Catherine Abreu, another member of the Net Zero Advisory Body and director of the International Climate Politics Hub, said there's no evidence any grand bargain has actually achieved anything meaningful for Canadians. 'They're not bargains; they're actually just fossil fuel deals,' she said. She pointed to the Trans Mountain pipeline that cost Canadian taxpayers over $34 billion, and the consumer carbon price that Carney cancelled in March. Another boondoggle was a 2016 proposal called the 100 megatonne cap that was supposed to limit oil and gas emissions in Alberta by introducing a carbon price on the oil sands in exchange for allowing some fossil fuel infrastructure expansion, she said. The 100MT cap 'did nothing to slow the expansion of the oil sands and … just greenwashed the activities of the oil and gas companies that were continuing to lobby hard against climate policies,' Abreu said. Today's discussion of 'decarbonized oil' — a euphemism discredited by experts as "marketing speak' but which Carney has said is crucial to his grand bargain with Alberta, is framed similarly to the discussions around the 100MT cap. 'Deconarbonized oil' is widely accepted to mean oil production paired with carbon capture technology that by design does not capture the majority of emissions associated with the fuel's lifecycle. When used, the technology routinely fails to meet its targets, and also only applies to the emissions required to extract and transport it, but not for when it is actually burned, which is where the majority of emissions come from. In 2022, more than 400 experts urged the federal government to abandon its carbon capture plans citing the risk of locking in fossil fuel production and ruining the ability of Canada to meet its emission reduction goals. The flagship carbon capture project would be the Pathways Alliance's proposed trunkline to pipe carbon dioxide captured from 13 oilsands sites in northern Alberta to an underground storage site south of Cold Lake at a cost of $16.5-billion — at least half of which it wants taxpayers to pay for. Two government sources
Vancouver Sun
an hour ago
- Vancouver Sun
Canadians are torn about whether to put their elbows up or down in U.S. trade war: poll
OTTAWA — Canadians are split on whether Canada should go into trade negotiations with the U.S. with elbows up or down when it comes to retaliatory tariffs, according to a new poll. The Leger/Postmedia poll suggests that 45 per cent of Canadians still believe Canada's position vis-à-vis U.S. President Donald Trump should be 'elbows up.' That means that Canada should impose counter-tariffs on all new U.S. border levies, even if it risks further retaliation from the Trump administration. But on the other hand, 41 per cent of respondents said they'd prefer Canada's response be 'measured' and focus more on getting a new trade deal even if it includes some tariffs on Canadian goods. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The split among Canadians puts Prime Minister Mark Carney in somewhat of an 'awkward position' as he must navigate conflicting views on how to deal with an erratic and unpredictable Trump administration, said Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns. On the one hand are those who still believe in the 'eye for an eye' approach with the U.S., and on the other hand is the growing number of Canadians who favour a slightly more conciliatory and measured approach. 'I think there's been a bit of a tempering, a bit of a diminishment of the 'elbows up' aggressive approach. It's still very present, and you know, not to be ignored,' Enns said. 'But I certainly would say that there's a stronger sort of view now starting to show up in Canadian opinion that says, 'Well hold on here, maybe we ought to think this through, let's not be hasty.' The new survey is in stark contrast to polling just six months ago, when a substantial 73 per cent of respondents told Leger they supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against any U.S. border levy on Canadian goods. For Enns, it means many Canadians — and particularly Gen Xers and Boomers over 55 years old who expressed particularly fierce Canadian patriotism earlier this year — are having a moment of 'sober second thought' as the trade war with the U.S. drags on. The shift in public sentiment could also be a reflection of the change in tone from Carney himself. During the Liberal leadership race in February, Carney said he supported suggestions of dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs. But since becoming prime minister, he has not retaliated to any of Trump's new tariffs on such key Canadian sectors as steel, aluminum and automobiles. In fact, he suggested last week that Canada may remove some tariffs on U.S. imports if it's beneficial to Canadian industry. 'When we first started to feel the brunt of President Trump's trade aggression, you know, Canadians were much more bullish, much more aggressive in terms of retaliation,' Enns noted. 'The temperature has come down and you've got maybe a bit of sober second thought from Canadians saying that we have to figure out a way out of this and it's not going to be with ah 'I hit you, you hit me, I hit you back' kind of thing.' Canadians, however, aren't overwhelmingly supportive of opening specific industries to American competition. Roughly half the respondents said they were willing to allow American-owned airlines to fly domestic routes in Canada or authorize U.S. telecommunication companies to operate on Canadian soil. Even fewer (33 per cent) are willing to loosen supply management rules protecting the Canadian dairy industry to let in more U.S. products. 'I would not say there's a groundswell of support and a sort of blank cheque for Carney, for the prime minister, to open up negotiations on these things,' Enns said. 'But it is kind of interesting that there's about half the population that, all things equal, think 'I'm open to hearing what that would look like'.' Carney's Liberals also appear to have peaked in their popularity with Canadians this summer, the poll suggests. After months of rising support since the April 28 election, the Liberals' popularity dipped for the first time, dropping two points to 46 per cent since July 7, the poll says. But Carney's party still holds a significant lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives (36 per cent) and the NDP, led by interim head Don Davies (six per cent), who both saw their parties' support increase by one point over the past month. Total satisfaction in the Carney government also dipped slightly by one point though it remains high at 54 per cent. Enns says it's too early to say Carney's honeymoon with Canadians is over, although the data suggest the prime minister may have found his popularity ceiling. 'We may have seen the high watermark for Liberal support, and as we head into the fall and some of these issues start to become more pointed… I would imagine that would be an interesting juncture for the government,' Enns said. 'It wouldn't surprise me to see a very gradual narrowing of that gap' between Liberals and Conservatives come the fall, he added. The polling firm Leger surveyed 1,617 respondents as part of an online survey conducted between Aug. 1-4. Online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not use random sampling of the population. National Post cnardi@ Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here .
Edmonton Journal
an hour ago
- Edmonton Journal
Canadians are torn about whether to put their elbows up or down in U.S. trade war: poll
OTTAWA — Canadians are split on whether Canada should go into trade negotiations with the U.S. with elbows up or down when it comes to retaliatory tariffs, according to a new poll. Article content The Leger/Postmedia poll suggests that 45 per cent of Canadians still believe Canada's position vis-à-vis U.S. President Donald Trump should be 'elbows up.' That means that Canada should impose counter-tariffs on all new U.S. border levies, even if it risks further retaliation from the Trump administration. Article content Article content Article content But on the other hand, 41 per cent of respondents said they'd prefer Canada's response be 'measured' and focus more on getting a new trade deal even if it includes some tariffs on Canadian goods. Article content Article content The split among Canadians puts Prime Minister Mark Carney in somewhat of an 'awkward position' as he must navigate conflicting views on how to deal with an erratic and unpredictable Trump administration, said Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns. Article content On the one hand are those who still believe in the 'eye for an eye' approach with the U.S., and on the other hand is the growing number of Canadians who favour a slightly more conciliatory and measured approach. Article content 'I think there's been a bit of a tempering, a bit of a diminishment of the 'elbows up' aggressive approach. It's still very present, and you know, not to be ignored,' Enns said. Article content 'But I certainly would say that there's a stronger sort of view now starting to show up in Canadian opinion that says, 'Well hold on here, maybe we ought to think this through, let's not be hasty.' Article content Article content The new survey is in stark contrast to polling just six months ago, when a substantial 73 per cent of respondents told Leger they supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against any U.S. border levy on Canadian goods. Article content Article content For Enns, it means many Canadians — and particularly Gen Xers and Boomers over 55 years old who expressed particularly fierce Canadian patriotism earlier this year — are having a moment of 'sober second thought' as the trade war with the U.S. drags on. Article content The shift in public sentiment could also be a reflection of the change in tone from Carney himself. During the Liberal leadership race in February, Carney said he supported suggestions of dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs. Article content But since becoming prime minister, he has not retaliated to any of Trump's new tariffs on such key Canadian sectors as steel, aluminum and automobiles. In fact, he suggested last week that Canada may remove some tariffs on U.S. imports if it's beneficial to Canadian industry.
