ASML Price Target Slashed by Bernstein Over 2026 Growth Fears
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ASML is a Dutch semiconductor company that manufactures advanced semiconductor equipment for chipmakers. The company's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, said that its future potential is marred by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. 'Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,' he added. This statement was in stark contrast to what the company said in November 2023, when it described 2026 as a growth year for the business.
ASML's Orders Are Not as Strong as They Appear
The analyst highlighted that ASML reported strong results for the second quarter, with revenue and margin beating estimates. Additionally, the company reiterated its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting a 15% net sales growth over last year. However, Dai noted that, upon close inspection, the orders are not as strong as they appear. ASML made a EUR 1.4 billion adjustment to its Q2 order backlog of EUR 33 billion, due to what the company refers to as 'customers' response to export controls.'
The Q2 transcript mentions that customers have canceled orders worth EUR 1.4 billion in light of the tariffs. This also suggests that there could be further cancellations, as President Donald Trump has yet to finalize a deal with the European Union and recently threatened to impose 30% tariffs on the bloc.
Wall Street Is Confused by ASML's Forecasts
Other analysts also remain confused by ASML's forecasts. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C J Muse called the company's update ' very confusing and overall disappointing,' noting that ASML suddenly shifted its 2026 outlook from 'growth year-over-year' to 'while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.' Muse maintained his Buy rating and EUR 800 price target on ASML stock.
Meanwhile, UBS raised its price target on ASML from EUR 610 to EUR 660, while maintaining a 'Hold' rating. The firm noted that although ASML lowered its FY26 forecast, UBS does not yet view this as 'sufficient to act as a clearing event.'
Is ASML Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
ASML stock currently has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, based on two Buys and five Hold ratings. The average ASML price target of $877.75 implies 16.3% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, ASML stock has gained 9.3%.
It is important to note that these ratings could change as analysts revise their recommendations in light of the Q2 results.
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